2023 NFL Picks – Week 10: Giants at Cowboys

The Matchup. Edge: Cowboys.

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DALLAS OFFENSE: Dak Prescott had an incredible performance against the Eagles, but lost because of mere inches. Luke Schoonmaker was inches shy of the goal line when he appeared to catch a touchdown, while Prescott himself stepped out of bounds while the ball was inches shy of the goal line on his two-point attempt. Either conversion probably would have led to a Dallas victory.

Prescott doesn’t have as favorable of a matchup in this game, based on the metrics. The Giants have been able to clamp down on most of their recent competition. They’ve limited the Bills to 14, the Redskins to seven, and the Jets to only seven as well before a couple of heroic drives by Zach Wilson. They were torched by Aidan O’Connell last week, but I believe this was a byproduct of the team giving up once Daniel Jones suffered an injury. They knew they had no chance with Tommy DeVito.

Some may argue that the Giants will continue to quit, but these are professional players who are looking to get paid. They will not quit two weeks in a row, especially against a hated rival. The Cowboys embarrassed the Giants in the opening week, so the New York players would love nothing more than to crush Dallas’ spirit and derail its season. The Giants can do this by continuing to pressure the quarterback heavily. Prescott saw plenty of pressure last week, and he won’t have as many weak defensive backs to throw against this time.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: I can make an argument for the Giants defense playing well this week, but I can’t do so for the offense. Not with DeVito at the helm. He may be the worst quarterback in the NFL aside from Dorian Thompson-Robinson.

However, there are a couple of things in DeVito’s favor. One is that the Giants offensive line is healthier now, as Andrew “Cordy Glenn” Thomas will be playing his second game coming back from injury. He’ll be better against a Dallas pass rush that has been a minor disappointment this season.

The other angle is Saquon Barkley, who is completely healthy. Barkley has a tough matchup as a rusher, but the Cowboys struggle to defend the middle of the field, so perhaps he can enjoy success as a receiver out of the backfield.

RECAP: I’m going to use this space to convince you not to bet the Cowboys. I’m going to pick Dallas to cover, but won’t be betting them. I just can’t trust DeVito against a defense featuring Micah Parsons.

However, there are a couple of points of caution. First, this is the Giants’ Super Bowl. They will go all out to beat Dallas. The effort level for the Cowboys will be low because they just lost a heart-breaker to the Eagles. I can’t see them being fully focused in this game.

Second, this spread is too high. DeVito is pure garbage, but the Giants’ defense is good and will keep the team in the game, at least for a while. If the Giants had a horrible defense, or even a slightly below-average one, I could endorse a Dallas selection, but New York is fifth in defensive EPA.

Again, I can’t bet the Giants. I just think this is a horrible spot for the Cowboys, and there are easier selections this week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: If you’re worried about betting -16.5, know that favorites of 16.5 or more are 17-13 against the spread since the 2010 lockout. I wonder if it’s correct to bet Dallas, knowing that some will be scared off by the huge number.

SATURDAY NOTES: There was some concern about Tyron Smith playing, but he’ll be active. The Cowboys are now up to -17.5 at some books, and I’m tempted to bet them because I don’t see how the Giants can score.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m still considering a bet, but it won’t be a big wager.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I think I’d bet Dallas for a unit or two if the Titans-Buccaneers game was going our way, but Tennessee is laying a giant egg for no reason. If you’re not tilted, the best line is -17.5 -105 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Giants.

The Cowboys should be flat after their near-victory against the Eagles.

The Spread. Edge: Giants.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cowboys -13.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -10.

Computer Model: Cowboys -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.

Who wants to bet on Tommy DeVito?

The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.