2023 NFL Picks – Week 10: Saints at Vikings

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Unlike the Jets in the wake of the Aaron Rodgers injury, the Vikings had a plan for when Kirk Cousins got hurt. They traded for Joshua Dobbs almost instantly, a move that has already paid dividends. Dobbs had a rough start to last week’s game, but had an incredible fourth quarter to lead the team to victory.

Dobbs, however, as a much tougher matchup this week. The Saints clamp down on outside receivers and tight ends very well, so Dobbs won’t have as much luck targeting Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson. Running the ball won’t be much of an option either. New Orleans is great versus ground attacks, while the Vikings don’t run the ball very well.

The Saints also generate good pressure on the quarterback, so Dobbs will need Christian Darrisaw on the field to protect his blind side. Darrisaw was a late addition to the injury report last week, so perhaps he’ll be able to return this Sunday.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: It’s important to diagnose how a quarterback fares against the blitz when handicapping any Vikings game because Minnesota, under Brian Flores, blitzes more than any other team in the NFL. Remarkably, Derek Carr’s numbers when blitzed versus when not blitzed are almost identical. His completion percentage and YPA barely change at all.

With that in mind, Carr has a nice matchup in this game. The Vikings, despite their improved defense, still have some holes in the secondary. Chris Olave figures to have another solid performance, but the player with the best matchup is Rashid Shaheed, given how poor Minnesota has been versus slot receivers this year.

The Vikings are much better versus the run than the pass, which gives them a fighting chance in this game. They’ll be able to limit Alvin Kamara as a rusher, while Taysom Hill won’t be able to do his usual nonsense.

RECAP: I hate that these teams are battling each other this week because they can both be viewed as underrated. Minnesota’s win over the Falcons was no fluke, as the Vikings possess a talented roster that can win with a backup quarterback like Dobbs. Things will get even better for them once they get back some key players from injury. The Saints, meanwhile, have one of the best defenses in the NFL, and with Kamara injecting some life into an offense that was morbid to start the year, they can go deep into the playoffs.

I’m torn on this game. I like the idea of getting the points with the Vikings, especially given Carr’s poor career record as a road favorite, but I’m also concerned about backing a reserve quarterback against a top defense. This is why I’m going to side with the Saints, but I’m not happy about it.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps have been betting the Saints, and I assume it’s because they want to fade all the Josh Dobbs hype. People are excited about Dobbs, but the fact remains that he’s a backup quarterback about to battle a top-10 defense.

SATURDAY NOTES: Big news on the injury report, as Justin Jefferson has a chance to return this week. With Christian Darrisaw returning, if Jefferson plays, Minnesota will look appealing at +3. This news might be why the sharps have moved off the Saints.

FINAL THOUGHTS: No Justin Jefferson, so I’ll stay on he Saints. The sharps have been on both sides of this game. If you like the Saints, you can get -3 -103 at Bookmaker.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Saints -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Saints -2.5.

Computer Model: Saints -2.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

The Trends. Edge: None.

Derek Carr is 7-13 ATS as a road favorite.

Vikings are 42-33 ATS at home since 2014 (11-18 ATS since 2020).

Opening Line: Saints -2.5.

Opening Total: 38.5.

Weather: Dome.