2023 NFL Picks – Week 10: Redskins at Seahawks

The Matchup. Edge: .

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SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Redskins are exactly what the doctor ordered for Geno Smith. The Seattle quarterback has struggled mightily lately, as he’s been guilty of far too many turnovers. However, there’s reason to believe Smith will play much better this week.

Smith has gone against the Browns and Ravens lately. These are two of the best defenses in the NFL. The Redskins, conversely, have one of the league’s worst stop units, ranking 28th in defensive EPA. That number is primed to worsen moving forward, as Chase Young and Montez Sweat will sorely be missed after being traded.

Smith will take advantage of the Redskins’ lacking pass rush and torch a secondary that has allowed more 50-yard receptions than any other team in the NFL. This isn’t something the Patriots were able to exploit last week because of their horrible receiving corps, but you better believe that at least one of D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett will go nuclear.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Seattle’s defense has gotten weaker lately as well. The Seahawks had the No. 1 defense heading into Week 8, but struggled to get off the field versus Phillip Walker. They were horrendous against the Ravens, who were able to rip through Seattle’s defense with tons of big plays.

I doubt the Redskins will have similar success. They struggle to block, and Sam Howell is prone to taking plenty of sacks. This could really hurt Washington in this game, as Seattle has a terrific pass rush that will be aided by Leonard Williams. Howell could be forced into turnovers by a secondary that can limit the outside Washington receivers. The Seahawks struggle versus slot receivers, but Curtis Samuel may not be available to take advantage of that.

The Seahawks have done poorly versus the run lately, but this is another area that could improve for them. The Redskins don’t block very well for Brian Robinson, so the Seahawks, now with Williams on the roster, could win in the trenches in this matchup.

RECAP: One of my favorite angles is to bet good teams coming off blowout losses. If you want numbers associated with this phenomenon, here they are: Teams with a winning percentage of 60 or greater coming off blowout defeats (24+) are 83-47 against the spread dating back to 1989. These teams are 4-0 this year, with the latest success being the Lions over the Raiders a couple of Monday nights ago.

Perhaps some will argue that the Seahawks are not a very good team, as they’ve plummeted in the metrics recently. However, I still think they have plenty of talent and are very well coached, so I think they’ll be able to rebound after being humiliated. Besides, the Redskins are one of the worst teams in the NFL despite their near-.500 record. Teams records mean everything to the common ESPN viewer, so this is another reason why the Seahawks appear to be the right side.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There are some -6.5s out there now, and I could see this line moving there. I don’t think it’s a bad idea to lock in this now.

SATURDAY NOTES: The injury report looks good for the Seahawks to crush the Redskins. I don’t see why Seattle couldn’t win this game easily.

PLAYER PROPS: D.K. Metcalf’s longest reception prop is 23.5. He has gone over this number in all but two games this year. I like him to go over once again versus the Redskins, who have allowed the most receptions of 50-plus yards this season. The best vig is -120 at BetMGM. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: No change here from me. I was hoping the sharps would come in on the Seahawks, but that hasn’t happened yet.

FINAL THOUGHTS: No sharp money on either side. Seahawks -6 -105 is the best number, and you can find that at Bookmaker.

The Motivation. Edge: Seahawks.

The Seahawks are a good team coming off an embarrassing loss.

The Spread. Edge: Redskins.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Seahawks -6.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -6.5.

Computer Model: Seahawks -3.

The Vegas. Edge: .

Rebound game for the Seahawks, according to everyone.

The Trends. Edge: .

Redskins are 19-33 ATS after a road win since 2000.

Seahawks are 59-44 ATS as home favorites since 2007.

Seahawks are 8-15 ATS as a favorite of 6+ since 2017.

Geno Smith is 3-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5+.

Opening Line: Seahawks -6.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Rain, 52 degrees. Light wind.