2023 NFL Picks – Week 10: Titans at Buccaneers

The Matchup. Edge: Titans.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

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TENNESSEE OFFENSE: I was pleastantly surprised by what I saw out of Will Levis last Thursday. Levis had a great debut versus the Falcons, but was in a much tougher spot against Mike Tomlin’s defense on a short work week. Instead of struggling, however, Levis composed himself quite well and nearly pulled the upset.

This bodes well for Levis’ outlook in this game. He’ll be battling a Tampa Bay defense that can’t generate pressure on the quarterback and struggles to cover everyone, chiefly slot receivers and tight ends. Levis has shown a nice connection with Kyle Phillips, so perhaps he’ll have a solid performance. DeAndre Hopkins will get his as well.

The Buccaneers are at least strong against the run. Levis won’t be able to lean on Derrick Henry very much, but his outlook is still bright because of how awful the Buccaneers are versus aerial attacks.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Despite C.J. Stroud’s heroics last week, the Buccaneers nearly prevailed. Baker Mayfield was terrific at times, leading multiple scoring drives late in the game. He routinely found Mike Evans and Cade Otton for big gains.

The Titans are solid against tight ends, so I wouldn’t expect a big Otton game again. Evans, conversely, has a terrific matchup against a Tennessee secondary that has struggled to cover the deep pass. Evans and Chris Godwin figure to take advantage of this liability.

Tennessee, however, can counter this by exploiting the Buccaneers’ offensive weakness, which would be pass protection. The Titans have talented players in the front seven who can hound Mayfield. Also, Mayfield won’t be able to lean on the run like he did last week. Rachaad White has a brutal matchup against Tennessee’s strong ground defense.

RECAP: I realize that I haven’t registered a single bet yet, but it has nothing to do with this alleged curse I spoke of earlier. All the games I like just happen to be in the second half of the slate.

That begins with this one. I love the Titans this week. Levis has been very impressive, as he has breathed some life into an offense that was dead with Ryan Tannehill at the helm. Hopkins’ improved health obviously plays a factor in that as well. We just saw Stroud torch the Buccaneers’ horrible pass defense, and while Levis obviously won’t have the same sort of record-breaking success, he should have a positive performance.

I also love the idea of fading the Buccaneers. Their early, misleading success this season has led so many people astray. Tampa Bay is easily one of the worst teams in the NFL, but they’re not being priced as such. My numbers suggest Tennessee -3 is the correct line. EPA metrics completely agree with that.

We would have won by fading the Buccaneers last week if Houston’s stupid kicker didn’t get hurt. Let’s claim the money we’re rightfully owed for fading Tampa again.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Both of Tampa’s starting cornerbacks missed Wednesday’s practice, so their pass defense, which was already terrible, could be even worse this week.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Titans are down two starting offensive linemen, though only one (Daniel Brunskill) is good. Talented cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting is also sidelined. The Buccaneers could miss Carlton Davis, but he has struggled. I still love the Titans, and the sharps have continued to bet them as well.

PLAYER PROPS: Kyle Phillips is a great bet this week. He’s been getting more production recently because of his improved health and rapport with Will Levis. The injury to Treylon Burks only helps matters. I’m going with the over 2.5 receptions, which has positive vig at the sportsbooks for some reason. The best line is over 2.5 +140 at BetMGM. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Carlton Davis is out, but that hasn’t changed the minds of the sharps, who pounded the Buccaneers late last night. There’s been so much sharp action that this line has gone to +2.5 in most places. In fact, you can get +3 -118 at DraftKings! You can Get $200 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Titans.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Titans -3.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Buccaneers -1.

Computer Model: Titans -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.

Equal action for most of the week.

The Trends. Edge: Titans.

Mike Vrabel is 7-1 ATS in his second-consecutive road game.

Road Team is 128-88 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Buccaneers are 38-69 ATS at home in the previous 107 instances.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -1.

Opening Total: 38.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 85 degrees. Light wind.