2023 NFL Picks – Week 10: Texans at Bengals

The Matchup. Edge: Bengals.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. This isn’t necessarily hate mail, but rather sad truth mail:

I am cursed, so feel free to go full fade.

Here’s actual hate mail via tweets:

I don’t know why this Steven Gay guy thinks that writing the word “Redskins” is edgy. There’s nothing edgy about fighting blatant racism. And what is up with Mister Antelope not recognizing that proper nouns need to be capitalized?

Anyway, I had more interactions with Mister Antelope:

Is Mister Antelope one of these Elizabeth Warren Native Americans? That would make the most sense because he doesn’t know what most Native Americans want. Then again, Mister Tweets Like Antelope could just be a mentally deranged individual.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: C.J. Stroud continued his excellent rookie season last week. He was able to bounce back off a frustrating loss and destroy the Buccaneers by throwing for nearly 500 yards. He broke the rookie single-game passing record, previously held by Marc Bulger. And to think, the Panthers coaches wanted Stroud, but management said they knew better when they selected Bryce Young instead.

Stroud, however, could take a step backward in this game. There’s a huge difference between battling the inept Buccaneers and surging Bengals. Cincinnati places a good deal of pressure on opposing quarterbacks, while its young and improving secondary can limit receivers very well. Stroud was able to exploit a Tampa secondary that couldn’t cover slot receivers at all, which would explain Noah Brown’s big performance. The Bengals are much better in this regard.

The Bengals can also clamp down on the run very well, but this isn’t an area of strength for the Texans anyway. Stroud’s only real option would be to target Dalton Schultz, as Cincinnati just surrendered a big game to Dalton Kincaid.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The sharps refused to believe it, but Joe Burrow is 100 percent again. He torched the 49ers and Bills in consecutive weeks, all while being able to scramble well. There’s no stopping him right now.

I don’t know what the Texans can do to limit Burrow. They place a decent amount of pressure on the quarterback, but not enough to limit Burrow. They couldn’t even prevent Baker Mayfield from going up and down the field on them last week.

Houston is especially poor versus the run. Joe Mixon has looked much sprier in the past two weeks than he did earlier in the season, so this is a matchup he’ll be able to exploit.

RECAP: In the previous pick capsule, I discussed that I think the Ravens could be looking ahead to battling the Bengals on Thursday night. There’s a decent chance Cincinnati treats this game similarly. Their battle against the Ravens next week could determine the division.

However, I think there’s less of a chance that the Bengals look ahead, even though this is a non-divisional game. I have two reasons for thinking this. First, the Bengals aren’t battling a team they’ve played yet like the Ravens are with the Browns. The Bengals may not have the same level of arrogance the Ravens will possess in their matchup versus Cleveland. Second, everyone is talking up Stroud as the next best thing. Even though the Bengals are favored by a touchdown, there’s a good chance they’ll take the Texans seriously because of what Stroud accomplished last week.

This is all theoretical, by the way, so I can’t justify betting it. As mentioned in the previous pick capsule, the motivational angle has been the worst this year, as things are topsy-turvy for some reason. Maybe it has to do with me being cursed. I don’t know. Whatever it is, I’m going to stop trying to guess motivational angles until I can see some evidence that they work again.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No Ja’Marr Chase in Wednesday’s practice wasn’t a surprise at all. Houston had plenty of players miss Wednesday’s practice as well, including Will Anderson and Laremy Tunsil.

SATURDAY NOTES: I said on the After Dark show that I was going to switch my pick to the Texans if both Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins were out. Higgins is sidelined for sure, while Chase is questionable after being DNP-limited-limited in practice this week. We won’t know Chase’s status until Sunday morning, unfortunately.

PLAYER PROPS: Dalton Schultz has gone over the receiving yard prop (46.5) in three of his previous four games. He has a chance of making it 4-of-5 because 1) Nico Collins is likely out, and 2) the Bengals have surrendered the fourth-most receiving yards to tight ends this year. The best vig is -115 at BetMGM. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: A ton of sharp money came in on the Texans around 10 a.m. I was wondering if this meant that Ja’Marr Chase wouldn’t play, but he’s in the lineup. Maybe someone knows that Chase is going to be severely limited. Either way, I don’t have any interest in betting this game, though I am sticking with Cincinnati in survivor. Bengals -5.5 -108 at Bookmaker is the best line. If you want to join the sharps by betting Houston, the best line is +6 -115 at PointsBet. You can Get up to $1,000 in second-chance bets at PointsBet by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Texans.

A classic Sandwich Situation for the Bengals. After a win versus the Bills on national TV, they have this game, then a battle versus the Ravens on Thursday night.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bengals -7.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bengals -7.5.

Computer Model: Bengals -5.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.

Plenty of action on the Bengals.

The Trends. Edge: Bengals.

Joe Burrow is 36-16 ATS when not favored by more than a touchdown (3-5 ATS otherwise).

Opening Line: Bengals -8.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: .