Aug. 2, 2010.
In many of my 2011 Fantasy Football Mock Drafts, I’ve stated that I plan on taking my starting defense in the final round of my fantasy drafts. Here I’ll explain why.
Fantasy Defenses Are Unpredictable
Looking at last year’s results, defense was the toughest position to project in fantasy football. Pittsburgh, the consensus No. 1 fantasy defense, finished 15th. The Giants and Titans, consensus top-five units, were 21st and 22nd, respectively.
Some defenses like the Eagles and Vikings lived up to the hype, but as you can see by the chart below, only five of ESPN’s top 12 projected defenses actually concluded the year in the top 12.
Fantasy Defense |
ESPN Projection |
2009 Finish |
Steelers |
1 |
15 |
Giants |
2 |
21 |
Titans |
3 |
22 |
Ravens |
4 |
9 |
Vikings |
5 |
6 |
Eagles |
6 |
1 |
Jets |
7 |
5 |
Panthers |
8 |
14 |
Dolphins |
9 |
25 |
Cowboys |
10 |
8 |
Bears |
11 |
20 |
Patriots |
12 |
16 |
As for the other positions, quarterbacks (9/12) were the most predictable. After that it went tight ends (7/12), running backs (6/12), kickers (6/12) and wide receivers (5/12).
This is a one-year sample size, but based on what I’ve experienced, this is far from an isolated incident. Defenses are so volatile because an injured player or two could really disrupt the entire unit. Take the Steelers for example. Troy Polamalu and Aaron Smith were injured last year. Those were only two of 11 starters, but their absence really played a big factor in the decline of their defense.
ESPN projects the Jets as its top fantasy defense. The Jets are also in my top five, but what if one or two of their key defenders goes down? Sure, if a running back you draft gets hurt you’re screwed there too, but with a defensive unit you’re counting on 7-9 key players to stay healthy.
Crappy Offenses Are Predictable
I think it’s easier to go the other way. Instead of trying to find the best fantasy defense, perhaps picking up the team that plays the worst offense each week is the more lucrative solution.
I tracked the following teams to see how opposing fantasy defenses scored against them in 2009:
Going week by week, I tallied the number of points opposing fantasy defenses scored against each of these teams (yes, this took a long time), and I compared them against the top fantasy defenses from 2009.
Here are the results, with the poor offensive teams in red:
Fantasy Defense or Faded Offense |
2009 Fantasy Points |
Vs. Rams |
292 |
Eagles |
256 |
Vs. Raiders |
255 |
Vs. Bills |
251 |
49ers |
245 |
Vs. Lions |
243 |
Vs. Redskins |
241 |
Vs. Chiefs |
240 |
Packers |
239 |
Vs. Steelers |
231 |
Saints |
224 |
Vs. Panthers |
222 |
Vs. Jaguars |
221 |
Jets |
218 |
Vs. Buccaneers |
218 |
Vikings |
215 |
Vs. Seahawks |
214 |
Vs. Browns |
214 |
Broncos |
213 |
Cowboys |
212 |
Ravens |
210 |
Cardinals |
205 |
Chargers |
203 |
Bills |
200 |
Vs. Jets |
199 |
Amazingly, a fade of the Rams each week would have netted a better result than playing the top fantasy defense for all 16 games.
Now, I know what you’re thinking – the top defenses probably did all of the damage against these pathetic offenses, right? That’s actually not true. The Seahawks and Texans enjoyed big outings against the Rams. And as for the Redskins, Kansas City (23 points), Carolina (21) and Tampa Bay (19) really teed off on that miserable offensive line. Seattle and St. Louis even scored 30 and 18 points, respectively, against the Jaguars. Those are just a few examples.
2010 Crappy Offenses
This year, I plan on exclusively playing matchups – finding the best possible defense going against the worst offense. These are the teams I’ll be fading:
That’s just a preliminary list. If a quarterback goes down and his backup sucks, that team will obviously be added.
As for Your Fantasy Draft…
If you plan on employing the same strategy this season, I recommend selecting the Dolphins or the Cardinals in the final round of your fantasy draft. Miami plays Buffalo and Arizona goes up against St. Louis in Week 1, so both fantasy defenses should post lucrative point totals.
The following week, you can drop the Dolphins/Cardinals and pick up the Raiders, who should be able to beat up on the Rams. In Week 3, the Redskins should also have their way with St. Louis. You get the picture.
Picking up and dropping these defenses each week may sound cumbersome, but it’s worth it if you want to use that 10th- to 13th-round fantasy pick on a valuable sleeper instead of an unpredictable fantasy defense.
More 2011 Fantasy Football Articles:
2011 Fantasy Football: Home
2011 Fantasy Football Rankings:
2011 Fantasy Football Rankings: Quarterbacks - 9/8 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Rankings: Running Backs - 9/8 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Rankings: Wide Receivers - 9/8 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Rankings: Tight Ends - 9/8 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Rankings: Defenses - 9/1 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Rankings: Kickers - 6/26 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Downloadable Spreadsheets - 9/8 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Dynasty Rookie Rankings - 8/27 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Auction Values - 8/27 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheets:
2011 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Top 150 Traditional - 9/8 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Top 150 PPR - 9/8 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Top 150 Touchdown - 9/8 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Mock Drafts:
2011 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: Real League Draft - 8/31 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: Fake Mock - 8/25 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Experts Draft - 8/25 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: Forum 2-QB Mock - 7/21 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: Mock Draft Scenarios - 7/17 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Auction: Mock PPR Auction - 7/14 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: Forum PPR Mock - 7/7 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: Forum Mock - 7/3 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: Four-Man PPR Draft - 6/19 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Draft: Fox Sports - 5/5 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Articles:
2011 Fantasy Football Injury Reports: Week 2 - 9/18 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Weekly Rankings: Week 2 - 9/18 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: Week 2 Add/Drop - 9/13 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: Training Camp Stock - 9/8 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: Start Em, Sit Em - 9/6 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: Preseason Stock - 9/3 (Walt)
2011 Preseason Recap and Fantasy Football Notes - 9/3 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: Preseason Targets - 9/3 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: Late-Round Sleepers - 9/1 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: Round-by-Round Strategy - 9/1 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: Value Comparison - 9/1
2011 Fantasy Football: Must-Have Players - 8/24 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: Busts, Players to Avoid - 7/25 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Mailbag - 7/24 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Sleepers - 7/23 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: Various League Strategy - 7/18 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: Three-Dimensional Running Backs - 7/16 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: ADP Analysis - 7/15 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: First-Round Bust History - 7/10 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Mailbag - 7/9 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Mailbag - 7/4 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Mock Draft Analysis - 7/1 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Mailbag - 6/18 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Mailbag - 6/12 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Mailbag - 6/5 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: Stock Up (Draft) - 5/6 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: Stock Down (Draft) - 5/6 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football: Buy Low - 4/8 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: Defense Strategy - 4/8 (Walt)
Running Backs with Most Carries - 4/8 (Walt)
NFL Picks - Nov. 20
2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20
NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19
Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4
