There will be many more 2011 Fantasy Football Rankings and features this summer, including tons of 2011 Fantasy Football Mock Drafts, Player Rankings, Sleepers and Busts. I’ll also have an extensive 2011 NFL Fantasy Football Preseason Stock Report.
2011 Fantasy Football – Three-Dimensional Running Backs (July 16):
The purpose of this article is to delve into the top fantasy running backs and determine which are overvalued. To do this, we’ll look at the three dimensions of a fantasy running back, and how many dimensions each of the top-10 finishers had over the past several years.
The three dimensions of a fantasy running back are:
1. Workload – Will this running back get enough carries? Some running backs are considered too brittle to receive 250-plus carries in 16 games.
2. Scoring – Will this running back be used on the goal line? If not, he obviously won’t generate many touchdowns, limiting his potential.
3. Catching – Will this running back catch at least 30 passes? This is important, as non-receiving running backs play only two downs and become somewhat obsolete when their team is trailing.
Let’s look at the top-10 running backs from the past several years and see how many dimensions they qualified for.
2010 Fantasy Football Running Back Leaders:
Running Back |
Workload |
Scoring |
Catching |
Arian Foster, Texans |
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Adrian Peterson, Vikings |
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Jamaal Charles, Chiefs |
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Peyton Hillis, Browns |
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Chris Johnson, Titans |
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Darren McFadden, Raiders |
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LeSean McCoy, Eagles |
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Michael Turner, Falcons |
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Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers |
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Ray Rice, Ravens |
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2009 Fantasy Football Running Back Leaders:
Running Back |
Workload |
Scoring |
Catching |
Chris Johnson, Titans |
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Adrian Peterson, Vikings |
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Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars |
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Ray Rice, Ravens |
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Frank Gore, 49ers |
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Thomas Jones, Jets |
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Ricky Williams, Dolphins |
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Ryan Grant, Packers |
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Joseph Addai, Colts |
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Steven Jackson, Rams |
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2008 Fantasy Football Running Back Leaders:
Running Back |
Workload |
Scoring |
Catching |
DeAngelo Williams, Panthers |
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Michael Turner, Falcons |
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Adrian Peterson, Vikings |
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Matt Forte, Bears |
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Thomas Jones, Jets |
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Steve Slaton, Texans |
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LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers |
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Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars |
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Brian Westbrook, Eagles |
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Clinton Portis, Redskins |
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2007 Fantasy Football Running Back Leaders:
Running Back |
Workload |
Scoring |
Catching |
LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers |
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Brian Westbrook, Eagles |
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Adrian Peterson, Vikings |
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Clinton Portis, Redskins |
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Joseph Addai, Colts |
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Jamal Lewis, Browns |
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Marion Barber, Cowboys |
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Willis McGahee, Ravens |
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Frank Gore, 49ers |
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Edgerrin James, Cardinals |
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2006 Fantasy Football Running Back Leaders:
Running Back |
Workload |
Scoring |
Catching |
LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers |
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Larry Johnson, Chiefs |
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Steven Jackson, Rams |
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Frank Gore, 49ers |
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Willie Parker, Steelers |
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Brian Westbrook, Eagles |
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Tiki Barber, Giants |
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Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars |
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Rudi Johnson, Bengals |
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Deuce McAllister, Saints |
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2005 Fantasy Football Running Back Leaders:
Running Back |
Workload |
Scoring |
Catching |
Shaun Alexander, Seahawks |
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Larry Johnson, Chiefs |
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LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers |
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Tiki Barber, Giants |
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Edgerrin James, Colts |
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Clinton Portis, Redskins |
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Rudi Johnson, Bengals |
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LaMont Jordan, Raiders |
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Thomas Jones, Bengals |
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Mike Anderson, Broncos |
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I figure six years is a good sample size to work with. Here’s what we can take away from this data:
Since the players in question are Jamaal Charles and LeSean McCoy, let’s focus on them.
McCoy may meet the Workload criteria next year. Andy Reid said the following of his star running back in June:
“I think last year LeSean showed that he could be a full-time running back and shoulder that load.”
Now, McCoy may never get 250-plus carries because Reid refuses to run the football, but his unbelievably high reception totals (78 in 2010) will make up for it.
As you can see by some of the bullet points above, Charles is the bigger issue. The former Longhorn is unbelievably talented; there’s no denying that. The concern is that he’s too brittle to handle a high carry total and the goal-line work.
If you disagree, that’s your opinion. The opinion that counts though is Todd Haley’s. After the opening drive of the second half during the playoff loss to Baltimore, Haley gave Charles one touch when the head coach reportedly stripped offensive coordinator Charlie Weis of his play-calling duties. Quite curiously, however, Haley told ESPN that Charles should be prepared for more carries in 2011. Schizophrenic, much?
Forgive me for not trusting Haley. The guy is in way over his head, and despite telling the media that he would “ride the hot hand” prior to the 2010 season, he stubbornly gave Thomas Jones way too many touches.
But let’s say Haley lives up to his word for once. What if he plans on giving Charles 250-plus carries? Can Charles last? Keep in mind that Charles has never had more than 275 total touches in his entire football career. He had 275 total touches in 2010, as well as 2007 during his final year at Texas. Is he capable of shouldering 300 or more touches? He’ll need to if he wants to finish in the top five fantasy running rankings again; because there’s no way he’ll average 6.4 yards per carry next year without Weis, and unlike McCoy, his reception total isn’t high enough to offset his expected YPC decline.
So, let’s say Charles averages 5.5 YPC. I think that’s a very generous figure. To get to his 2010 rushing yardage total of 1,467, he would need to carry the ball 267 times. That would beat his carrer high by 37 attempts. I’ll be shocked if Charles gets 267 carries in 2011.
Speaking of Charles and McCoy, let’s take a look at the top 20 fantasy running backs, according to FantasyFootballCalculator’s ADP, and see how many dimensions each has:
2011 Fantasy Football Running Back ADP Leaders:
Running Back |
Workload |
Scoring |
Catching |
Adrian Peterson, Vikings |
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Arian Foster, Texans |
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Chris Johnson, Titans |
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Jamaal Charles, Chiefs |
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Ray Rice, Ravens |
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LeSean McCoy, Eagles |
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Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers |
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Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars |
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Darren McFadden, Raiders |
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Michael Turner, Falcons |
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Frank Gore, 49ers |
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Steven Jackson, Rams |
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Peyton Hillis, Browns |
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Matt Forte, Bears |
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LeGarrette Blount, Buccaneers |
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Ryan Mathews, Chargers |
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Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants |
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Shonn Greene, Jets |
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Knowshon Moreno, Broncos |
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Jahvid Best, Lions |
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A few things based on that chart:
***** COMMENT BOX IS BELOW THESE LINKS *****
More 2011 Fantasy Football Articles:
2011 Fantasy Football: Home
2011 Fantasy Football Rankings:
2011 Fantasy Football Rankings: Quarterbacks - 9/8 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Rankings: Running Backs - 9/8 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Rankings: Wide Receivers - 9/8 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Rankings: Tight Ends - 9/8 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Rankings: Defenses - 9/1 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Rankings: Kickers - 6/26 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Downloadable Spreadsheets - 9/8 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Dynasty Rookie Rankings - 8/27 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Auction Values - 8/27 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheets:
2011 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Top 150 Traditional - 9/8 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Top 150 PPR - 9/8 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Top 150 Touchdown - 9/8 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Mock Drafts:
2011 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: Real League Draft - 8/31 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: Fake Mock - 8/25 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Experts Draft - 8/25 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: Forum 2-QB Mock - 7/21 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: Mock Draft Scenarios - 7/17 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Auction: Mock PPR Auction - 7/14 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: Forum PPR Mock - 7/7 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: Forum Mock - 7/3 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: Four-Man PPR Draft - 6/19 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Draft: Fox Sports - 5/5 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Articles:
2011 Fantasy Football Injury Reports: Week 2 - 9/18 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Weekly Rankings: Week 2 - 9/18 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: Week 2 Add/Drop - 9/13 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: Training Camp Stock - 9/8 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: Start Em, Sit Em - 9/6 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: Preseason Stock - 9/3 (Walt)
2011 Preseason Recap and Fantasy Football Notes - 9/3 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: Preseason Targets - 9/3 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: Late-Round Sleepers - 9/1 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: Round-by-Round Strategy - 9/1 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: Value Comparison - 9/1
2011 Fantasy Football: Must-Have Players - 8/24 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: Busts, Players to Avoid - 7/25 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Mailbag - 7/24 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Sleepers - 7/23 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: Various League Strategy - 7/18 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: Three-Dimensional Running Backs - 7/16 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: ADP Analysis - 7/15 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: First-Round Bust History - 7/10 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Mailbag - 7/9 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Mailbag - 7/4 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Mock Draft Analysis - 7/1 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Mailbag - 6/18 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Mailbag - 6/12 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Mailbag - 6/5 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: Stock Up (Draft) - 5/6 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: Stock Down (Draft) - 5/6 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football: Buy Low - 4/8 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: Defense Strategy - 4/8 (Walt)
Running Backs with Most Carries - 4/8 (Walt)
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NFL Picks - Nov. 22
2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20
NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19
Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4
