By Chet Gresham – @ChetGresham
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Baker Mayfield, QB, Browns | ADP QB4, My Ranking QB9I believe Mayfield is going to be extraordinarily efficient and put up good numbers all year, but as the fourth-overall quarterback, I’d like a bit more room for high-passing volume and rushing volume. The Browns should be balanced offensively, and Nick Chubb is going to be a force in his second year. I also don’t see the Browns’ defense giving up big points to push Mayfield into shootouts. His upside is certainly QB4, but I don’t see any reason to pay for his upside.
Drew Brees, QB, Saints | ADP QB7, My Ranking QB13Drew Brees finished eighth in fantasy scoring for quarterbacks last season and had his fewest attempts since he played for San Diego with 489. He was lucky to get 32 touchdown passes, a considerable increase from 2017 when he had just 23 on 536 attempts. His 6.5% touchdown rate last season was his highest in seven seasons, and he is due to regress. We can no longer count on big yardage, as his 3,992 yards last year was his lowest since coming to New Orleans. He also managed four rushing touchdowns in 2018, which was his most significant output in his career. At this point, his QB7 ADP is right around his ceiling, and I see no need to pay up for him anymore.
Damien Williams, RB, Chiefs | ADP RB12, My Ranking RB17I like Williams, and I love his opportunity to put up big numbers this season, but I’m not entirely sold on him, and I love what I’ve seen from Darwin Thompson this summer. Williams has the No. 1 job, and as long as he stays healthy and plays well, he should keep it, but there are plenty of questions about Williams as a “bell-cow” back, and I have trouble pulling the trigger at his ADP. I’m not skipping him with any malice, but I haven’t drafted him yet, and I doubt he’ll fall to where I’d grab him.
Derrick Henry, RB, Titans | ADP RB20, My Ranking RB23I’m not that down on Henry in my rankings, but I have yet to draft him, and he’s always gone before I feel compelled to do so. He’s much better in standard leagues due to his lack of receiving work, but when it comes down to it, you need to bet on the Titans being a competitive team this year to allow Henry to see a significant enough workload on the ground to give him fantasy value. I don’t believe the Titans will be able to do much of anything in the win/loss department this year, so Henry is going to need to break off a lot of big runs, and that’s not likely.
Tarik Cohen, RB, Bears | ADP RB28, My Ranking RB39I enjoy watching Cohen play and was high on him last season with Jordan Howard as the lead back, but I’m down on him this year after the Bears let Howard and his inability to catch the ball go to Philadelphia while replacing him with David Montgomery and Mike Davis, who are both strong pass-catchers. And when you add in a genuinely healthy Allen Robinson and Anthony Miller, targets are going to become scarcer for Cohen. He’s still going to get plenty of work, and if he can get into the end zone more efficiently than most, he’ll beat my expectations, but Cohen isn’t going to be set up well to score, and he’ll also lose rushing attempts with Montgomery and Davis ahead of him as runners.
Jordan Howard, RB, Eagles | ADP RB34, My Ranking RB48I was in on Howard earlier in the year, but with Miles Sanders looking great this preseason, I see no reason to go after Howard anywhere near his ADP. Yes, he may be the goal-line back, and he may get early-down work to start the season, but then again, he may not. Nothing is secure with Howard because he can’t catch, and his presence limits the offense’s play-calling. Sanders lined up near the goal line can go multiple ways, but with Howard, you have a pretty good idea what the offense is going to do.
Kenny Golladay, WR, Lions | ADP WR19, My Rankings WR26I don’t trust Matt Patricia to do anything right in the passing game and targeting Golladay well is one of them. Golladay is a beast who can take over games, but the Lions are a run-first team, and Kerryon Johnson and Marvin Jones are healthy.
Jarvis Landry, WR, Browns | ADP WR 28, My Ranking WR32Landry is a good slot receiver, and he’ll get to return to the slot now that Odell Beckham Jr. is with the team. But the last time Landry was putting up big PPR numbers out of the slot, he was the No. 1 receiver. In Cleveland, he’ll be the No. 2 receiver and not so far ahead of the group to be assured big targets, mainly if the Browns’ defense can perform up to their talent level. I expect the Browns to be efficient on offense with Nick Chubb and Beckham Jr. and their defense should hold teams down, giving Landry fewer targets than before.
Corey Davis, WR, Titans | ADP WR37, My Ranking WR39Corey Davis is a beast, and if he were on an excellent offensive team, I’d be on board, but I’m avoiding Titans players, for the most part, this season, as Marcus Mariota isn’t the quarterback we thought he could be and Ryan Tannehill could likely see work this year. Add in a talented rookie in A.J. Brown and a target vacuum in Adam Humphries, and Davis is going to be boom or bust every week, and the Titans aren’t going to go “boom” all that often unless they are imploding.
Tyrell Williams, WR, Raiders | ADP WR53, My Ranking WR66I like Williams as a great deep threat, but Derek Carr is a dink-and-dunk quarterback, who, when he does throw it deep this year, will likely target Antonio Brown. Williams doesn’t have the versatility or job to be a PPR threat with an apprehensive quarterback like Carr, and unless Brown goes off the map again, I don’t see much room for upside in Williams’ future.
Zach Ertz, TE, Eagles | ADP TE3, My Ranking TE3I still have Ertz as my No. 3 tight end, but I don’t see him in the top-three tier this season, as his target numbers will drop. He broke the record for most tight end targets last season, and with DeSean Jackson, Dallas Goedert and Miles Sanders likely seeing a decent amount of targets and Alshon Jeffery not missing the start of the season; there’s just no way Ertz gets the same number this year. That doesn’t mean he isn’t a top tight end still, and he could easily lead the Eagles in targets again, but he is being drafted on his output last season, and I rather go after someone later, who I think can up their production.
For more recommendations, check out WalterFootball.com’s Fantasy Football Rankings.
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