2019 Fantasy Football – Early ADP Values

By Chet Gresham – @ChetGresham
Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Odell Beckham Jr., WR, Browns
Beckham has an average ADP as the fifth wide receiver and 14th player off the board in early drafting. That’s just too low for a player I feel is interchangeable with DeAndre Hopkins for the No. 1 receiver this season. Beckham has already shown that he can accumulate huge numbers from Eli Manning, who, let’s face it, never was that good and now is just bad. And now, Beckham’ll get a quarterback in Baker Mayfield who can avoid tacklers, make good and quick decisions and throw the ball deeply and accurately. There may be some growing pains, which is why I have Hopkins at No.1, but I see the Browns throwing a lot with Todd Monken as offensive coordinator, and Beckham is going to get as many targets as he wants.

Dalvin Cook, RB, Vikings
Cook’s injury history is going to shy some people away, but his usage as a runner and receiver puts him firmly in the rare company of every-down running backs, while he’s being drafted as a more one-dimensional back like Nick Chubb. Cook is currently going off the board as the 12th running back and 22nd player overall, which is a great place to grab him. In the final eight games of the season, he ran the ball 97 times for 517 yards – 5.3 yards per carry – for two touchdowns and caught 31 passes for 198 yards and two touchdowns. Latavius Murray ran the ball 58 times for 192 yards – 3.3 yards per carry – and two touchdowns during that stretch. With Murray gone, Cook will be in line for more work, and more goal-line touches, especially with Minnesota’s likely moving to a more run-based offense under first-year offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski after attempting the sixth-most passes last season. Add in a strong offensive line and defense, and if Cook stays healthy, he has top-five upside.

Julian Edelman, WR, Patriots
Edelman is currently the 19th wide receiver and the 47th player taken in PPR drafts. Over 12 games last season, he caught 74 passes on 108 targets for 850 yards and six touchdowns. If you extrapolate that to 16 games, he would have ended up with 99 receptions on 144 targets for 1,133 yards and eight touchdowns. That would have put him in the top-12 receivers in standard leagues and top-10 in PPR leagues. Now with Rob Gronkowski gone, I expect those opportunities and touchdown numbers to continue, as he will be the key receiver once again this year.

Chris Carson, RB, Seahawks
I underestimated Carson last season, and I shouldn’t have. I won’t make that mistake again. Last season, he finished as the 15th-best PPR running back and 14th-best in standard. He is currently the 25th running back and the 52nd player being taken in PPR leagues and 23rd and 42nd in standard. Last season, Carson played in 14 games, and in three of those saw eight or fewer rushing attempts. If you discard Weeks 1 and 2 when Rashaad Penny and Carson split work, Carson averaged 19.5 rushing attempts for 89.7 yards and .8 touchdowns. That would have put him on pace for 312 carries for 1,435 yards and 12 touchdowns on the ground for 16 games. And as you can see, even with minimal receiving numbers, he still had little difference in his PPR versus standard scoring finish last season. Once you get past the huge rushing plus receiving threats at running back, things even out quite a bit. Yes, Rashaad Penny will be a factor this year, but Seattle will run the ball, and Penny will be Carson’s backup. Health is the only thing that should stop him from again putting up good numbers.

D.J. Moore, WR, Panthers
Moore was a beast with the ball last season, as he racked up the best broken-tackle percentage for all wide receivers and still played all 16 games. Moore led the Carolina wide receivers in targets, receptions and yards, while rushing 13 times for 172 yards. He also was in fewer than 50 percent of the team’s snaps until Week 8, as Torrey Smith was oddly ahead of him to start the season. Devin Funchess and Torrey Smith are gone, and Moore is the no-doubt No. 1 receiver. He is currently the 27th receiver and 64th player taken in standard leagues and the 24th receiver and 59th player in PPR. His touchdown luck was bad last season, as he ended up with just two, knocking his fantasy stats down. He finished as the 35th standard and 36th PPR wide receiver last season with just two touchdowns because he ended the season with 960 total yards. The next highest receiver with just two touchdowns was Taylor Gabriel, who finished 52nd in standard last year. There’s no doubt in my mind that those two touchdowns are just a blip on the radar, as Moore’s ability to break tackles coupled with a full set of snaps and WR1 targets will push him into the top-20 receivers with upside to be a top-10 receiver.

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