2025 NFL Picks – Week 8: Browns at Patriots

The Matchup. Edge: Patriots.

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NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Drake Maye has been far better than even the most bullish fans expected he would be in his second year. He reached plateaus that only Patrick Mahomes, Dan Marino, and Dak Prescott achieved as young quarterbacks, and he even broke Tom Brady’s single-game completion record last week.

I love Maye – he was my top fantasy quarterback value, and I drafted him more than any other quarterback in best ball – but it must be pointed out that he’s played nothing but struggling defenses thus far. He’s gone against the Raiders, Dolphins, Steelers, Panthers, Bills, Saints, and Titans. Those teams are ranked 25th, 29th, 15th*, 10th*, 21st, 24th, and 30th, respectively, in defensive EPA. I starred the Steelers and Panthers because both teams were missing key defensive personnel in those matchups. In Carolina’s case, both of their edge rushers were sidelined.

This is Maye’s first difficult matchup of the year. It wouldn’t surprise me if he still plays well, but things won’t be so easy. Maye won’t get nearly as much help from his running game as he did versus the Titans last week, and he’ll see more pressure than usual.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: The Browns were a very easy pick last week for a variety of reasons. One was the mismatch between Quinshon Judkins and a Miami defense that couldn’t stop Rico Dowdle or Kimani Vidal. Judkins responded with three touchdowns, and his great running ability meant that Dillon Gabriel didn’t need to do anything.

The Patriots will force Gabriel to beat them. They’re fifth against the run, so they’ll do a much better job of limiting Judkins, much like the Steelers did two weeks ago.

Gabriel will be asked to do much more this week, and it won’t end well. He has no arm strength, so all he can do is dink and dunk. Mike Vrabel will also be able to orchestrate a great game plan to force him into a mistake or two.

RECAP: I’ve been betting the Patriots almost every game this year. I won’t be doing that this week. This spread is way too high. The Patriots have covered high lines like this, but they did so against Group F teams. The Browns have way too strong of a defense and running game to be in Group F. They’re in Group D, which means they’re bad, but not horrible.

I made this spread New England -4.5, so we’re getting nice value with the Browns. It’s only 2.5 points, but we’re getting two key numbers in six and seven. And if you don’t agree that this line should be below a touchdown, remember that Cleveland has battled the likes of the Ravens, Lions, Packers, and Joe Burrow-led Bengals this year, and they composed themselves respectably against all of them. The Detroit game turned into a blowout, but only because of some fluky turnovers from Joe Flacco.

I don’t know if I can bring myself to bet this game because I really don’t trust Gabriel against a strong defense, but I will not be betting on the Patriots either.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No update here. I’m still leaning toward the Browns, but don’t plan on betting them.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Browns.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Patriots -4.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Patriots -7.

Computer Model: Patriots -6.

The Vegas. Edge: Patriots.

Decent lean on the Patriots.

Percentage of money on New England: 66% (16,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

Kevin Stefanski is 15-24 ATS after a win.

Opening Line: Patriots -7.

Opening Total: 40.5.

Weather: .