2025 NFL Picks – Week 3: Bengals at Vikings

The Matchup. Edge: Vikings.

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MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Both starting quarterbacks will be sidelined in this game. The Bengals obviously took a huge hit from losing Joe Burrow, but the Vikings certainly did not suffer a big downgrade. In fact, going from J.J. McCarthy to Carson Wentz could be an improvement, based on how bad McCarthy has been in seven quarters this season.

While McCarthy couldn’t connect with his receivers, including Justin Jefferson outside of a couple of occasions, Wentz should be able to do so. Wentz isn’t as great as he once was back in 2017 when he was the MVP frontrunner before getting hurt, but he has the arm talent to dissect a horrible Cincinnati defense that couldn’t even contain the Browns in Week 1. Wentz can also scramble very well, which is an underrated part of his game.

The Vikings will be able to trample Cincinnati’s ground defense, too. Aaron Jones is banged up, but Jordan Mason projects very well against a Bengals unit that couldn’t keep Travis Etienne and Bhayshul Tuten in check last week.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The Bengals can’t feel as optimistic with Jake Browning at quarterback. He’s a huge downgrade from Burrow. He’s a solid backup, but he’s not nearly good enough to cover up all the deficiencies on Cincinnati’s roster.

One such deficiency is the offensive line. The unit couldn’t block the Jaguars last week, so it doesn’t stand a chance against the Vikings, especially if Andrew Van Ginkel is able to return to action after missing Week 2. A heavily pressured Browning could commit some turnovers.

Running will be more difficult as well because the Vikings will be able to play closer to the line of scrimmage than usual. This is a huge boon for the Vikings, who struggled versus Atlanta’s ground attack last week.

RECAP: One of my favorite betting angles is to back a good team with a backup quarterback against a team with a non-elite defense. We can obviously say that the Bengals don’t have an elite defense. But are the Vikings a good team? I think it’s possible. They were 14-3 last year, and while they’ve looked sluggish thus far, a lot of that has been the result of McCarthy being terrible. Injuries haven’t helped, so we’ll see who’s available. Christian Darrisaw’s presence would be huge.

You might be wondering about the Bengals also having a backup quarterback, but they’re not a good team. They have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, and they also can’t block at all. Browning won some games in 2023, but that Cincinnati defense had D.J. Reader, Sam Hubbbard, and Chidobe Awuzie. All of those guys are gone. Also, the Vikings have a very good defense, so none of this applies to Cincinnati.

Given that the Bengals are a bad team starting a backup quarterback, the Vikings should be favored by way more than three points. I made this line -5.5, so we’re getting great value with Minnesota.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We’re awaiting news on Christian Darrisaw and Andrew Van Ginkel. Both practiced Wednesday, which is a good sign. Darrisaw was full, while Van Ginkel was limited.

PLAYER PROPS: I can’t believe how low Carson Wentz’s rushing prop is. Wentz is obviously no Lamar Jackson, but he’s a mobile quarterback who has posted these rushing yard totals in all of his starts since 2022: 22, 56, 19, 2, 15, 5, 22, 23, 12. He has exceeded 9.5 rushing yards in seven of his previous nine starts, and in each of his previous three starts. Th best number is over 9.5 rushing yards -122 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Vikings are getting some serious reinforcements back from injury. Christian Darrisaw was full in practice on Friday. Andrew Van Ginkel was full in practice on Friday. Harrison Smith was limited all week. Ryan Kelly won’t play, but the Bengals won’t have a couple of key defenders either (Cam Taylor-Britt, Shemar Stewart). I still love the Vikings.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Huge news for the Vikings. Christian Darrisaw, Andrew Van Ginkel, and Harrison Smith are all back! The Vikings look even better now, and this has caused some sharp money to come in on them, but not nearly enough. The best line is -3 -106 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Vikings.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Vikings -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Vikings -1.5.

Computer Model: Vikings -7.

The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.

Slight lean on the Bengals.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 64% (118,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Vikings.

Vikings are 49-39 ATS at home since 2014 (18-24 ATS since 2020).

Opening Line: Vikings -1.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Dome.