2023 NFL Picks – Week 10: Falcons at Cardinals

The Matchup. Edge: Falcons.

Video of the Week: I couldn’t believe it, but here’s a video of Donald Trump and Joe Biden arguing about whether Kingdom Hearts 2 or Kingdom Hearts 3 is better:

Both games were great! Can’t we all just get along!?

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Kyler Murray is finally returning to action. Barring a setback, Murray will be on the field for the first time since tearing his ACL late last year. He’ll be a breath of fresh air for an offense that has struggled.

However, it’s unclear what condition Murray will be in during his first game. He could be rusty after so much time off from playing. It’s also possible that he won’t have his complete mobility because of the ACL tear. Running backs and receivers often don’t run well during the season after an ACL injury, so it’s fair to expect similar issues for Murray. This is obviously a huge problem because Murray needs his mobility to be an effective quarterback.

There will also be more on Murray’s shoulders this year because the Cardinals can’t run the ball at all without James Conner. This wasn’t even a positive matchup for that anyway. Atlanta also covers outside receivers well, so Murray will have to rely on targeting Rondale Moore and Trey McBride.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: The Falcons need to run the ball to win. They’re on a two-game skid because they haven’t been able to be effective on the ground against their previous two opponents. Both the Titans and Vikings are ranked in the upper half of the NFL when it comes to stopping the rush.

The Cardinals, conversely, are ranked toward the bottom in that department. They won’t be able to do anything to stop Bijan Robinson or Tyler Allgeier. Perhaps this will be the huge Robinson game people have been anticipating, but then again, Arthur Smith could just use Keith Smith extensively.

Robinson and Allgeier running well will obviously create opportunities for whomever Arthur Smith decides to use at quarterback. Either Desmond Ridder or Taylor Heinicke can have success in this game, given the weakness the Cardinals have in their secondary. It’ll be helpful if Drake London can return from injury.

RECAP: It’s not a common thing for a 1-8 team to be receiving about 80 percent of the betting action (as of Tuesday afternoon.) Then again, the Cardinals are no ordinary 1-8 team, as they’ll be welcoming back their starting quarterback from injury.

Most people will disagree, but I think the Falcons are worthy of a multi-unit wager. How could that be with Murray due back? Well, Murray won’t solve Arizona’s problems. The Cardinals actually had decent quarterbacking out of Dobbs, but still found ways to lose because of their dreadful defense. Their inability to run the ball since Conner’s injury hasn’t helped matters.

The Cardinals are especially poor versus the run, which has to be music to Arthur Smith’s ears. The Falcons have lost their previous two games because they’ve been matched up against teams that are tough against the run. In fact, every game Atlanta has won this year, aside from the victory over the horrible Buccaneers, has been against teams that can’t stop the run. The Panthers, Packers and Texans have horrible ground defenses.

Arizona’s run defense is particularly woeful, so the Falcons will have a strong offensive performance. Meanwhile, the defense should do well, too, given that Murray is playing his first game back from injury. Murray isn’t coming off some routine procedure; he suffered a torn ACL less than a year ago, so it’s unlikely that he’ll be 100 percent in his first game back.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Two key players returned to practice, one for each team. Drake London, who was out last week, had a limited designation. The same goes for James Conner, who is coming off injured reserve.

SATURDAY NOTES: I already loved the Falcons. I’m a bigger fan now. The Cardinals could be missing three starting offensive linemen. Trystan Colon is out. D.J. Humphries didn’t practice a single time this week. Will Hernandez was DNP-DNP-limited. I’m shocked the sharps haven’t come in on the Falcons, but it’s not like they’re on Arizona either. I’m bumping this to five units.

PLAYER PROPS: Drake London is the obvious over in this game. The Cardinals are second-worst at defending outside receivers, and London has a good chance to eclipse 46.5 yards with Taylor Heinicke. The best number is over 46.5 -115 at BetMGM. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Public money has evened out on this game, which is a bit of a disappointment. I still love Atlanta though.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still love the Falcons. The sharps haven’t taken a stance on this game though. The best line is -2 -108 at Bookmaker.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Falcons -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Falcons -2.

Computer Model: Falcons -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.

Equal action.

The Trends. Edge: Falcons.

Cardinals are 45-31 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 since 2007.

Opening Line: Falcons -2.5.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Dome.