By Chet Gresham – @ChetGresham
Follow @walterfootball for updates.
I’ve always been a fan of SOS despite its many shortcomings, but there are plenty of shortcomings. In the past, I’ve based SOS on multiple statistics from the previous season, but after working on that stat soup this season, I came to the realization I was building a camel instead of making soup. Too many statistics that could sway the numbers were built from outlier games. What I decided to do here is use Football Outsiders DVOA for defensive efficiency against the run and pass. Their ability to contextualize the statistics is superior to using raw stats. I did use DVOA in the past, but it was just one component. Simplifying SOS to just DVOA is the way to go in my opinion, but there are a few other statistics and methods I’m going to try and hopefully I can give you another angle on SOS in the near future.
But as you know, coaches, players, and schemes change over the offseason, so I’m not going to spit on your shoe and tell you my SOS is raining down infallible wisdom. Instead, I will look more at the outliers while reiterating that you don’t draft Eli Manning over Patrick Mahomes because he has an easier schedule. Strength of schedule should be used as a tiebreaker, a kind of background radiation that makes you a little keener than what radiation actually does to you.
What I have for you today is the DVOA for defenses against the receiving backs last season. You can take a look at a scaled-down definition of DVOA* at the bottom of this article.
This season, I’m going to tweak how I use the strength of schedule in fantasy a bit. In fantasy, like most things, a quick start is often integral to a good finish. It isn’t 100 percent necessary, but it sure gives you more options and the upper hand in trade negotiations. And when looking at SOS, we are likely to see teams play closer to their 2018 ways early in the season rather than late. That pushes me to put more emphasis on strong matchups in the early season schedule.
Minnesota Vikings
Dalvin Cook will get all the work he can handle this season, and that includes through the passing game. Cook has 51 receptions on 65 targets through 15 games played, which is an average of 3.4 receptions per game. That’s not bad, but not great. The good news is that he should see an uptick in targets this season with a more running back-centric offense, and he also gets a great schedule against teams poor at defending running backs in the rushing and passing game.
Oakland Raiders
The Raiders have a good pass-catching back in Jalen Richard, but they also drafted Josh Jacobs to be the every-down back this season. Jacobs is a good receiver and should be able to handle the task and will also get a strong start to the season against defenses who are weak against receiving running backs. This seems like a good opportunity for Jacobs to get off to a strong PPR start to the season, and if you believe in the rookie wall, it would be feasible to then start shopping the rookie for someone on a safer offense.
Chicago Bears
Chicago has three running backs who can catch the ball, but none are better than Tarik Cohen. There is worry that rookie David Montgomery will take targets away from Cohen, which could happen, but I also think Chicago would work to get Cohen involved more as a receiver if so. The schedule as a whole, sets up well for the Bears’ running backs in the passing game.
Detroit Lions
The Detroit offense was sickly last season, but the team did tie for third in the league with 141 running back targets. Coach Matt Patricia takes after his mentor Bill Belichick in that regard. Most of those targets went to Theo Riddick last year, but Kerryon Johnson has proven himself a more than capable receiver and Riddick appears to be fading at this point in his career. The Lions also get a strong schedule against defenses who can’t contain receiving backs. Five of their first six opponents rank 21st or worse in DVOA against receiving backs, and I have a lot of faith in Johnson’s ability.
* DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) calculates a team’s success based on the down-and-distance of each play during the season, then calculates how much more or less successful each team is compared to the league average. According to Football Outsiders, DVOA “breaks down every single play of the NFL season to see how much success offensive players achieved in each specific situation compared to the league average in that situation, adjusted for the strength of the opponent. … Football has one objective — to get to the end zone — and two ways to achieve that, by gaining yards and getting first downs. These two goals need to be balanced to determine a player’s value or a team’s performance.”
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