By Chet Gresham – @ChetGresham
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Baker Mayfield is already being hyped as a top-five fantasy quarterback after a strong debut last season and the offseason acquisition of Odell Beckham Jr., while Beckham is going to likely have a top-three ADP at wide receiver, with many fake footballers taking him as No. 1. Are these expectations reasonable? Let’s take a look and see what we see.
Mayfield came onto the scene last year after a Tyrod Taylor injury in Week 3 and never looked back, but we did see a change in fantasy numbers after Hue Jackson’s dismissal, as Mayfield averaged 40 attempts, completing 56.5 percent for 254 yards, 1.6 touchdowns and 1.2 interceptions per game under Jackson in five full games and averaged 32.9 attempts, completing 68.4 percent for 281.8 yards, 2.4 TDs and one interception per game under Freddy Kitchens in eight games. If you extrapolate those eight games into a full season, he would throw for 4,508 yards, 38 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. Andrew Luck finished as the fifth-best fantasy quarterback last season with 4,593 yards, 39 TDs and 15 interceptions. Mayfield’s half-season numbers also came with Jarvis Landry as the No. 1 receiver instead of Odell Beckham Jr., and Mayfield still averaged more touchdowns than any quarterback other than Patrick Mahomes during that stretch. The Browns could have never traded for Beckham, and there would still be plenty of reason to like Mayfield this season.
Beckham is quite good. He’s easily one of the top receivers in the game, but he’s also had to gain that status with Eli Manning, the noodliest-armed quarterbacks in the league, at the helm. But even with Manning only giving Beckham 73.4 percent catchable targets and throwing the ball on average just 7.9 yards downfield, ranking 26th in the league, Beckham still managed another 1,000-yard season in 12 games. If he had stayed healthy, he would have likely hit 1,403 yards and eight touchdowns with a quarterback who is the antithesis of his explosive ability.
Unlike Manning, Mayfield had a 9.7-yard average depth of target in his final eight games under Kitchens and had a passer rating of 107.4 on throws over 15 yards in the air, while Manning had an 87.1 passer rating in the same scenarios. Manning also completed 35 percent of his passes over 20 yards compared to 41 percent for Mayfield. Mayfield’s red-zone completion percentage was a healthy 66.7 percent compared to Manning’s 47.7 percent. The accuracy numbers on deep passes and in the red zone are enough for me to boost Beckham Jr.’s per-game numbers back up to his rookie season.
The Browns also get a new offensive coordinator, Todd Monken, who led the Tampa Buccaneers to the best overall passing offense in the league last season. Together, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jameis Winston led the league with 5,125 yards passing and were third with 36 touchdown passes. Winston’s average depth of target of 11.3 yards was only out-paced by Josh Allen’s 11.5. Buccaneers receiver Mike Evans ranked fifth in the league with an average depth of target at 16.6 yards, while Browns deep threat Antonio Callaway was at 14.5 and Beckham was at 12.6. Just think of Beckham getting good targets at, on average, 15 yards downfield. Evans ranked third in receiving yards last season, but 10th in targets with some, at times, shaky quarterback play. If Monken can get this Browns passing game, with a better quarterback and receiver, even close to the Buccaneers’ numbers last year, the fantasy heights for both Mayfield and Beckham will be tremendous.
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