By Chet Gresham – @ChetGresham
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Last season, 28 running backs saw eight or more looks when their team was inside their opponents’ five-yard line. Eight is an arbitrary number of course, but on average, I think a running back who can get a look in a prime spot near the goal line in half of his team’s games is someone we might want to consider for our fantasy teams.
Below, I’ll take a look at some of the more interesting numbers that might give us some insight into the goal-line situations across the league.
Todd Gurley, RB, RamsGurley led the league with 24 total looks, 22 rushing attempts and two targets inside the five-yard-line. Without looking directly at say, touches inside the two-yard-line or down and distance, etc., the actual results from these looks can be deceiving. What I’m mostly looking at is opportunity, but if a player is getting into the end zone, all the better. Gurley did get into the end zone a league-high 11 times, which put him in the middle of this particular pack at a 45.8-percent success rate.
Gurley also missed the last two games of the season with knee trouble. C.J. Anderson took over for him, and he ran the ball four times inside the five and scored twice. On the whole, the Rams’ running backs ranked second in the league with 30 looks to the Saints’ 38. The question for this coming season is Gurley’s knee. If Sean McVay makes good on giving Malcolm Brown and Darrell Henderson more work to give Gurley more rest, Gurley’s numbers will likely be smaller than last year. The opportunities for Rams backs should remain high though. This situation is fraught with trouble, as we don’t know how much Gurley’s touches will be scaled back and we don’t know just how bad his knee is or will be. The fact that they brought Brown back and drafted Henderson are two signs that I don’t like for Gurley, and when coupled with unknowable questions, I will have trouble putting much faith in him this season. Instead, I’d rather get a deal on Henderson, who has the highest upside of the two backups.
Alvin Kamara, RB, SaintsKamara tied for second with 19 looks inside the five over 16 rushing attempts and three targets. He ended up scoring 10 touchdowns, nine on the ground and one through the air. But unlike Gurley, Kamara had a legitimate backup in Mark Ingram, who had 15 looks, scoring four touchdowns from those despite missing the first four games. This coming season, Ingram will play in Baltimore, while Latavius Murray will take over Ingram’s role in New Orleans. With the Vikings last year, Murray had only four rushing attempts inside the five and scored twice on those, but in 2017, he had 13 attempts and scored six times. Murray is a good goal-line back and will get opportunity in New Orleans. I think Ingram is a more versatile player, as he can catch the ball to an extent, so there is a chance that Kamara could be used more around the goal line than last season, but I also don’t think the Saints want Kamara to move much beyond the 275 touches he had last season, which also got a boost with Ingram out the first four games.
Derrick Henry, RB, TitansHenry ranked third in rushing attempts inside the five with 17, which he finished eight with touchdowns. Henry split work with Dion Lewis for much of the season and based on Henry’s production early on, he deserved to be in a committee. But he did improve as the season went on and went absolutely bonkers in the last four games of the year. The Titans, despite a lackluster offense, did finish sixth in running back looks inside the five and very much lived up to their run-first offense. Henry will be downgraded this season because he had such huge output in just a few games last season, but he is the no-doubt goal-line back on a team that will run the ball near the goal line often, plus will be given a longer leash as the starting back and his rushing attempts should see a nice boost from 215 last year. As long as he stays healthy under the workload, he could easily hit 300 rushing attempts, a number only Ezekiel Elliott topped last season.
Damien Williams, RB, ChiefsLast season, Kansas City ranked fourth in total looks for running backs inside the five and second in total touchdowns with 15. Those touchdowns and looks were split between Kareem Hunt, Williams and Spencer Ware. Hunt was the starter for the first 11 games, Ware for one, and Williams for four. Hunt is a better player than Williams, but Williams fit the offense and scored six touchdowns from inside the five on 10 looks in the last four games of the season. We can’t expect anything like that pace, but we can expect Williams to get the majority of the work inside the five with Hunt and Ware gone, giving him plenty of opportunity to put up great fantasy numbers in 2019.
Marlon Mack, RB, ColtsIn 2018, Mack played in 12 games and ran the ball 13 times inside the five, scoring six times. Predicting a full season for Mack is tough, but if he can pull it off, he’s set up for great opportunities because he’s come through the offseason as the undisputed every-down back. With Mack out, Jordan Wilkins and Nyheim Hines had eight looks inside the five, four on the ground and four through the air, and the only touchdown was a run by Hines. The Colts didn’t sign or draft anyone to compete with Mack, and he showed last season that he was easily the best option, be it near the goal line or anywhere on the field. Given 16 games, Mack would have been right up there with the top running backs in the league with over 16 goal-line looks, as only seven players hit that number last year. With a smaller frame than many of those backs, an injury isn’t out of the question of course, but predicting injuries is a fool’s errand and I think that risk is factored into Mack’s ADP.
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