2025 NFL Picks – Week 14: Texans at Chiefs

The Matchup. Edge: None.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is the 12th part of my Walt Goes to Vegas series, where I discuss the Cursed Kiosk.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: You may have noticed that the Chiefs were able to score effectively early in the Dallas game and then struggled to do so until garbage time. There was a reason for this, and that would be the three offensive line injuries they suffered throughout the contest. Josh Simmons, Trey Smith, and Jawaan Taylor all got hurt. This hindered the Chiefs against the Cowboys.

If the Chiefs had issues scoring against the Cowboys without three of their offensive linemen, imagine the struggles they’ll sustain against the Texans. Houston has a terrific defensive line that placed eight sacks on Josh Allen a couple of weeks ago. With all of the missing blockers in front of him, Patrick Mahomes will similarly be under siege.

I wouldn’t count on the Chiefs running the ball effectively either. The injury-ravaged offensive line will obviously be a factor, as will Houston’s stellar front that is ranked second against the rush.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: A few weeks ago, if you were to ask me which team had the better offensive line, the answer would have been simple. The Chiefs made vast improvements to the blocking unit this past summer, while the Texans were known to have a line that couldn’t protect C.J. Stroud at all.

The turntables have turned, and now the opposite is true for both teams. The Chiefs can’t block because of their injuries, while Houston’s pass protection has been upgraded tremendously. Stroud isn’t seeing as much pressure anymore, so he’ll have enough time in the pocket to potentially dissect the Chiefs like Dak Prescott was able to on Thanksgiving. Stroud doesn’t have two All-Pro threats, but between Nico Collins, Dalton Schultz, and the emerging Jayden Higgins, he’ll be able to keep the chains moving throughout the afternoon.

The Chiefs aren’t very good against the run either. Woody Marks got banged up last week, but was able to return to action. Marks should have a decent performance in this contest.

RECAP: People keep expecting the Chiefs to rebound, but it’s not happening. Their defense is atrocious, ranking 27th in EPA. Their offense, meanwhile, was carrying the team, but will have severe issues doing so with three injured offensive linemen. Houston, conversely, now has better blocking, and when factoring in Kansas City’s offensive line injuries, the Texans defense will be the best unit on the field.

I will be on the Texans, but I can’t say this will be a huge play. Even though the Texans are in better shape right now, there’s a voice telling me that Mahomes will somehow, some way, will the team to victory. Of course, he could do so and not cover, especially with this line being 3.5, so I think Houston is safe for a two-unit play.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m going to add units to the Texans because the Chiefs may indeed be down three offensive linemen. Josh Simmons was placed on injured reserve, while Jawaan Taylor and Trey Smith missed practice Wednesday. I’ll bump this to three units right now, and if things don’t improve for the Chiefs, I’m going to move to four units.

SATURDAY NOTES: Jawaan Taylor and Trey Smith are both doubtful, so the Chiefs will be missing three starting offensive linemen. Good luck against Houston’s defensive line, Patrick Mahomes.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m shocked that this line is four now. I’m glad to be getting a better number with Houston.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s good injury news for the Texans. They’ll have Kamari Lassiter, while the Chiefs will be missing their three offensive linemen. Despite this, the sharps have pounded the Chiefs into oblivion, betting them at -3, -3.5, -4, and now -4.5. I assume this is because they like Andy Reid with extra time to prepare, and they believe the Chiefs will be fighting for their lives, but I’m not convinced these are good reasons to bet Kansas City. The best line is +5 -110 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Texans.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -5.5.

Computer Model: Chiefs -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Some action on the Texans.

Percentage of money on Houston: 65% (201,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Patrick Mahomes is 106-31 SU, 71-64 ATS (57-50 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Patrick Mahomes is 15-12 ATS after a loss.

Opening Line: Chiefs -5.5.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 21 degrees. Light wind.