2025 NFL Picks – Week 14: Seahawks at Falcons

The Matchup. Edge: Seahawks.

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SEATTLE OFFENSE: Despite the Seahawks scoring 26 points against the Vikings, they did not have a great offensive performance. Sam Darnold struggled with Minnesota’s pressure, while Jaxson Smith-Njigba didn’t log a single catch in the first half. The offense didn’t even score a touchdown until late in the game.

It seemed like the Vikings had the formula against Darnold, so perhaps other teams will copy what they just did. The Falcons have a strong pass defense and can rush the passer effectively. They also have a talented No. 1 cornerback who can perhaps slow down Smith-Njigba.

The Falcons are weak, however, when it comes to stopping the run. The Seahawks should be able to shine in this area by feeding the ball to Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet, who continue to split carries.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: While the Falcons are a weak 23rd against the run, the Seahawks are first when it comes to halting opposing ground attacks. The Falcons run their offense through Bijan Robinson, so he’ll have to do most of his damage aerially in this game because Seattle will take away his rushing ability.

This game will be mostly on Kirk Cousins, which is problematic because the Seahawks generate the most pressures in the NFL. The Falcons normally have a stellar offensive line, but with Kaleb McGary missing and the two guards banged up, Seattle will be able to put pressure on Cousins.

While it’s unclear if Drake London will be available, Cousins will at least be able to lean on Kyle Pitts. The Seahawks have one weakness defensively, and that would be their inability to cover tight ends. Pitts had a monster game against the Seahawks last year, and he could have a similar outing in this contest.

RECAP: I don’t need to tell you that the Seahawks are the better team, but that doesn’t mean that they’re going to cover. Raheem Morris is a bozo of a coach, but one area in which he shines is bouncing back off a loss as a favorite; he’s 7-1 against the spread in that regard. Also, there’s been some sharp money coming in on the Falcons, taking this line from +7.5 to +7. Now, this could be phantom movement, where the pros might make a bigger play going the other way, but there’s reason to believe that they legitimately like the Falcons.

That reason would be the spot for Seattle. This spot is horrible. The Seahawks are coming off their revenge game for Darnold, and after this “easy” contest against a 4-8 team, they have to battle the 8-4 Colts and then the rival Rams. This is a classic sandwich game, so it’s possible that Seattle could be flat, much like the Rams were versus the Panthers last week.

One other thing to consider is Darnold’s health. Darnold has an ankle injury that could cause him to miss practice this week. If he has a bunch of limited sessions, I may end up betting the Falcons.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I don’t think I’ll be betting this game. Sam Darnold didn’t even show up on the injury report, while Drake London was DNP on Wednesday.

SATURDAY NOTES: Drake London is out and David Onyemata looks iffy to play, but that apparently doesn’t matter to the sharps. The pro money has continued to pour in on the Falcons.

PLAYER PROPS: We’re going to bet on Kyle Pitts because the Seahawks are anemic versus tight ends. The best number is over 52.5 receiving yards -114 at BetRivers. We’re also going to ladder 70+ and 80+. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Falcons at +7.5 and +7. Most of the +7 lines are gone, but you can get +7 -120 at DraftKings. I don’t think seven is worth the -120 price tag, but I can understand why you’d want to bet up for it. The best line is +6.5 -105 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Falcons.

The Seahawks just had their Sam Darnold revenge game. After this week, they take on the 8-4 Colts and then the Rams.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Seahawks -8.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -7.5.

Computer Model: Seahawks -5.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 83% (89,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

Mike Macdonald is 4-0 ATS in 1 p.m. East Coast games.

Raheem Morris is 7-1 ATS after losing as a favorite.

Opening Line: Seahawk -7.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Dome.