2025 NFL Picks – Week 14: Steelers at Ravens

The Matchup. Edge: Ravens.

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BALTIMORE OFFENSE: I thought the Bengals would cover against the Ravens, but was shocked to see an outright upset. Then again, perhaps we should have seen it coming. Hindsight is 50/50, as Cam Newton once said, but Lamar Jackson’s reluctance to run has put a lid on this offense. He ran just twice against the Browns and Jets. He scrambled on six occasions versus the Bengals, so there was some improvement. However, Jackson clearly wasn’t 100 percent.

There’s a chance Jackson will be much better this week. He’s had a mini-bye to heal, so that could do wonders for his leg injury. Jackson should also have success throwing against a Pittsburgh secondary that isn’t 100 percent because of injuries. Pittsburgh is especially bad against tight ends, so Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely should thrive.

The Ravens’ best chance of moving the ball will be via Derrick Henry. The Steelers just surrendered the most rushing yards in franchise history, so this is not a good time to be going up against Henry and a potentially mobile Jackson.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: While we’re expecting more from the Ravens’ scoring unit this week, it’s hard to be optimistic about the Steelers’ ability to score. They posted just seven points against a defense that was ranked 24th in EPA entering Week 13.

The Steelers couldn’t do a single thing well last week. Aaron Rodgers didn’t complete a single pass beyond the line of scrimmage in the opening half, and his 21 pass attempts went for just 117 yards, which is beyond embarrassing. Making matters worse, Rodgers aggravated his hand injury, so he was even worse in the second half.

Pittsburgh couldn’t run the ball either. The team had a great matchup against Buffalo’s poor run defense, but neither Jaylen Warren nor Kenneth Gainwell could do anything on the ground. And how could they, when Rodgers refused to throw beyond the line of scrimmage? The Bills were able to play closer to the line of scrimmage, giving them a great opportunity to clamp down on the run for once.

RECAP: No matter what, games between the Ravens and Steelers are always close. At least, that’s what they tell us. This is true for games in Pittsburgh, but not so much when the teams battle each other in Baltimore. The only time the Steelers were able to stay within two touchdowns of the Ravens in Baltimore when Jackson played was back in 2020 when the Ben Roethlisberger-led 6-0 Steelers won 28-24.

Otherwise, the Steelers have never played within two touchdowns of the Ravens in Baltimore with a healthy Jackson on the field. Last year, the Ravens throttled Pittsburgh at home, 34-17 and 28-14.

The same thing could transpire in this latest meeting. Rodgers is not healthy, and the offense is completely anemic as a result. The defense, meanwhile, can’t stop the run, which will be a problem against Henry and possibly Jackson.

Now, I recognize that Jackson is banged up, but that seems to already be baked into the spread. This line was -5.5 and is now only -6. I made this line -8, so we’re getting great value in a nice buy-low spot on a Baltimore team that has had extra time to prepare for this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Lamar Jackson had been DNP on Wednesday in each of the three weeks. He was limited Wednesday this week, so that has to be a positive sign that he’s feeling better following the mini-bye. Aaron Rodgers, meanwhile, didn’t practice on Wednesday.

SATURDAY NOTES: Lamar Jackson gave me a scare with a DNP practice on Thursday, but he was back to being full in practice on Friday. It was disappointing to see Patrick Queen and some other Pittsburgh defenders not have an injury designation, but I still love the Ravens.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m high on the Ravens, but the sharps bet the Steelers at +6. The best line for the Ravens is -5.5 -103 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Ravens.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Ravens -8.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -6.5.

Computer Model: Ravens -5.

The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.

Slight lean on the Steelers.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 58% (84,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Ravens.

History: Steelers have won 8 of the last 11 meetings.

Mike Tomlin is 65-38 ATS as an underdog.

John Harbaugh is 15-9 ATS following a loss of 10+.

Opening Line: Ravens -6.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 42 degrees. Light wind.