2025 NFL Picks – Week 14: Dolphins at Jets

The Matchup. Edge: None.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were: 34-42 in 2020, 48-37 in 2021, 32-35-1 in 2022, 31-27 ATS in 2023, and 49-45 in 2024. The public was 18-36-1 heading into Week 13.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Broncos -6.5

Chargers -9.5

Dolphins -5.5

The public went 1-4 in Week 1, 1-3 in Week 2, 0-3 in Week 3, 1-4 in Week 4, 1-3 in Week 5, and 1-3 in Week 6. The public finally had a winning week in Week 7, going 2-1. As for Week 8, the public was an even 3-3. It also went 3-3 in Week 9 and then 2-2 in Week 10. In Week 11, the public continued to lose, going 2-3-1. The public continued to immolate itself in Week 12, going 1-4 because of two back-door touchdowns, as well as Week 13, with a 1-2 record.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Bears +6.5

Cowboys +3

Seahawks -7.5

It’s official: No one has any money for Christmas presents.

MIAMI OFFENSE: After some very careful consideration, I moved the Dolphins out of Group F and into Group D of my NFL Power Rankings. I know this is potentially earth-shattering news, but my reasoning is that they have another weapon for Tua Tagovailoa to utilize. Darren Waller is back from injury, so Tagovailoa will be able to throw to someone besides Jaylen Waddle.

Sure, Waller is at high risk of suffering another injury, but he should play well in this game. The Jets are weak to tight ends – Kyle Pitts just had a strong performance against them – so Waller figures to be very productive. Tagovailoa needs an intermediate threat like him in this matchup because the Jets have a strong edge rush that can abuse Miami’s tackles.

The Jets were just abused by the run as well, with Bijan Robinson eclipsing the century mark quite early against them. This obviously bodes well for De’Von Achane, who was also able to rush for 100 yards last week.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Aaron Glenn’s decision to bench Justin Fields was criticized by some, but it appears to have worked. In his past two starts, Tyrod Taylor was able to stay within striking distance of the Ravens and then defeat the Falcons with an impressive final drive. Taylor doesn’t even have Garrett Wilson at his disposal.

Despite being able to throw to the likes of Adonai Mitchell and John Metchie, Taylor should perform on a high level in this game as well. The Dolphins have a poor pass defense because they can’t generate quarterback pressure, while several members of their secondary are injured. We just saw Tyler Shough engineer multiple touchdown drives against them in the second half of last week’s game. If Shough could nearly beat the Dolphins, Taylor will have a great chance as well.

I haven’t mentioned Breece Hall yet. He has a tougher matchup than some would expect on the ground because Miami is somehow ranked fifth versus the rush. However, the Dolphins’ linebackers are fully capable of surrendering big plays over the middle of the field – Jordyn Brooks is far worse in coverage than he is in run support – so Hall should do well as a receiving threat.

RECAP: It sucks that both of these teams are coming off a win because fading bad teams following a victory is often a good strategy. If only either the Saints or Falcons prevailed last week!

I’m going to side with the Jets. I think these teams are very close to being even, with the Dolphins having a slight edge. Thus, I don’t think Miami should be a road favorite in this matchup. I know the Dolphins won the previous meeting between these teams, 27-21, but there were five fumbles in the game, and the Dolphins recovered every single one of them. I don’t think they’ll be as lucky this time, especially in unfriendly cold conditions for a southern team.

Weather is impossible to predict, but the forecasts are calling for 34 degrees and potential snow. Tagovailoa has an 0-8 record in games that are 45 degrees or colder, so that obviously bodes very poorly for the Dolphins. I like the Jets for a few units.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: An updated weather report says that this is going to be 36 degrees and partly cloudy, but no rain/snow or wind. Still, it’s cold for Tagovailoa, which should benefit the Jets.

SATURDAY NOTES: I still like the Jets in this game. They’re going to be missing slot cornerback Jarvis Brownlee, but I don’t think that’s a hug deal.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Jets at +3, and all of those three lines are gone. I can’t find a viable +3 anywhere. So, we’re going to bet the +2.5 and decrease the unit count to two because three is the most prominent key number in football. The best line is +2.5 -104 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Jets.

Tua Tagovailoa in the cold.

The Spread. Edge: Jets.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Jets -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Dolphins -3.

Computer Model: Dolphins -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Slight lean on the Dolphins.

Percentage of money on Miami: 61% (80,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Dolphins have won 13 of the last 16 meetings.

Opening Line: Dolphins -3.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 36 degrees. Light wind.