2025 NFL Picks – Week 14: Cowboys at Lions

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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Week 13 Analysis: We broke out of our funk to finally have a solid week. I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Eagles, 3 units (loss): We began the week poorly with a three-unit bet on the Eagles, who did not show up to play the Bears. Thankfully, we were able to make most of our money back on D’Andre Swift rushing prop bets. Thank you to Evan Daniel for the tip!

Texans, 3 units (win): This was a nice win, but the only thing that spoiled it is that we also bet the over 20.5 Texans points, and they scored 20. They had a chance to kick a field goal in the final minutes, but passed up on it to go for it on fourth down. I mean, sure, why would any team possibly kick a field goal when they can take the margin from four to seven?

Rams, 5 units (loss): Three fluky interceptions cost us. This reminded me of when the Eagles no-showed against the Panthers late last year. I expected more out of the Rams.

Saints, 4 units (win): This was not quite the back-door cover because the Saints’ final drive was for a potential tie. The missed two-point conversion allowed the Dolphins to win because the Saints otherwise could have kicked a field goal to prevail.

Seahawks, 8 units (win): I wish all Picks of the Month were this easy!

Giants, 3 units (loss): It wouldn’t be an NFL week if we didn’t have special teams nonsense go against us. The Giants allowed a punt return touchdown, then the kicker stubbed his toe before attempting a kick. And if that wasn’t enough, the Giants also fumbled a return. Can special teams nonsense go our way just once? Just once is all I ask!

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions didn’t lose to the Packers because Amon-Ra St. Brown suffered an injury in the first quarter, but his departure didn’t help matters. St. Brown suffered an ankle sprain and is expected to miss this game.

St. Brown’s absence will hurt in what should be a potential shootout. Tom Kennedy is just a pedestrian replacement, so Jared Goff will have to focus on getting the ball to Jameson Williams and Jahmyr Gibbs more often. Williams is a talented deep threat, but Jared Goff may not have enough time to get him the ball because Dallas’ pass rush has improved as the season has progressed.

The Cowboys have also improved against the run as a result of the trades they made at the deadline. Quinnen Williams and Logan Wilson have improved Dallas’ ground defense tremendously. I still don’t trust them to completely handle Gibbs, but I don’t think we’ll see the sort of performance from the Detroit runner that we witnessed when he dominated the Giants.

DALLAS OFFENSE: I just mentioned the Giants. They had a very interesting game against the Lions a couple of weeks ago. Detroit was helpless to stop the Giants, despite the opposing offense being Jameis Winston throwing to Wan’Dale Robinson and Isaiah Hodgins. It was a pathetic display from Detroit’s defense off a loss.

The Lions have struggled to defend the pass for several weeks, stemming from injuries in their secondary. If they couldn’t stop Winston to Hodgins, or “No Cookie” Jordan Love to Dontayvion Wicks, how will they handle Dallas’ lethal aerial attack? Dak Prescott has been on fire since the bye, and it’s easy to see why. His offensive line is intact, and he has two dynamic receivers at his disposal; not to mention Jake Ferguson at tight end. I don’t see how the Lions will be able to defend CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens.

Detroit has had its issues stopping the run lately as well. Since the beginning of October, the Lions rank 20th versus ground attacks. Javonte Williams doesn’t have the same sort of terrific matchup as his receivers, but he should perform well in this game.

RECAP: I’m confused as to why the Lions were 3.5-point favorites entering this week. Given Detroit’s decline – especially without St. Brown – and Dallas’ ascension, these teams are even. I would make the Lions -1.5, so we’re getting nice value on a spread because we get the key number of three.

In addition to the line value, we’re siding with the superior matchup. The Lions can’t defend the pass, while Dallas has one of the most lethal aerial attacks in the NFL. Meanwhile, Dallas’ improved defense should be able to do a semi-decent job of containing the St. Brown-less Lions. I liked the Cowboys quite a bit at +3.5 and am still going to bet them at +3. I think they could pull the outright upset.

Our Week 14 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s a chance that Amon-Ra St. Brown will play. He’s listed as questionable, but I think that’s Dan Campbell playing mind games with the Cowboys. I don’t think he’ll suit up, so I like Dallas still. If there’s a chance with St. Brown’s status, I’ll make a unit adjustment.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: Detroit’s pass defense has collapsed, but which Dallas receiver do we play? Well, the Lions give up the 18th-most production to slot receivers and the third-most production to outside receivers, so George Pickens will be our choice. The best number is over 79.5 receiving yards -117 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

We’re also going to ladder Pickens to 130+ receiving yards. He’s hit 140+ in two of the three games since the bye, and he could certainly do that in this game. We’re doing this at DraftKings for +426. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

We’re going to FanDuel for our same-game parlay because it has a 30-percent profit boost. We’re going to parlay Pickens over 82.5 receiving yards, Jahmyr Gibbs over 36.5 receiving yards, and Jake Ferguson under 36.5 receiving yards. This $25 parlay pays $160. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I can’t believe Amon-Ra St. Brown is playing. I was going to be on Dallas because the Lions would be limited without St. Brown and Sam LaPorta, but that’s not the case. I’m not going to bet the Cowboys as a result. The sharps also don’t have a clear side. There was pro money on Dallas +3.5 and then other pro money on Detroit -3. The best line is Cowboys +3.5 -110 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Cowboys.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Lions -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Lions -3.5.

Computer Model: Lions -1.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Tons of money on Dallas, but much of it sharp.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 75% (243,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.