2025 NFL Picks – Week 8: Dolphins at Falcons

The Matchup. Edge: Falcons.

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MIAMI OFFENSE: I was wondering if Tua Tagovailoa would be benched for last week’s atrocious performance. He threw three interceptions against the Browns, prompting Mike McDaniel to remove him from the game. Tagovailoa, however, will start this contest because McDaniel doesn’t really have anyone else to turn to in order to save his job. Frankly, I don’t even know why McDaniel was even allowed on the plane after the loss to Cleveland.

Tagovailoa stinks right now, but it’s not all his fault. Tyreek Hill is sidelined, and Darren Waller got hurt versus the Browns. All Tagovailoa has at his disposal right now are De’Von Achane and pyramid scheme Jaylen Waddle. And the lack of weapons isn’t even the biggest problem, given how poor Miami’s offensive line is.

The Dolphins were an obvious fade because they wouldn’t be able to block Myles Garrett and company. The same applies in this game because the Falcons have improved their pass rush this year. They have 104 pressures through six games, so they should be able to put some heat on Tagovailoa and limit Miami’s entire offense.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: Another reason why the Dolphins were such an obvious fade last week was because they’ve had the league’s worst run defense since Week 5 after surrendering 206 rushing yards to Rico Dowdle and 124 rushing yards to Kimani Vidal, and they were tasked with stopping Quinshon Judkins, who is far more talented than those two runners.

Well, the matchup is only getting worse for the Dolphins because they now have to contain Bijan Robinson. Arguably the best runner in the NFL, Robinson will rip through Miami’s defense and potentially threaten the single-game rushing record.

Robinson’s great running will make things very easy for Michael Penix Jr., who already had a favorable matchup in the first place. Miami’s secondary is a disaster, so Drake London, Darnell Mooney, and Kyle Pitts shouldn’t have any problems getting open.

RECAP: I was wary about backing the Falcons last week because they were coming off a national TV victory. They laid an egg in a similar situation at Carolina. While there was more effort versus the 49ers than there was against the Panthers, it was still rather lackluster.

The Falcons rebounded off the Carolina debacle, and they should be able to have similar success in this game. The Dolphins are a joke. They have a terrible roster with a poor offensive line and an abysmal defense. Their coach is a lame duck, while their quarterback threw his teammates under the bus. If the Falcons establish any sort of lead, there could be a quit factor.

With that in mind, this spread isn’t high enough. I can’t believe it’s only -7. It should be -10 at the very least. It’s not usual that we get great line value with the superior team coming off a loss, so this will be one of the top plays of the week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This line shifted up from -7 to -7.5. That’s closer to what I projected the spread to be. The line may have moved because Darren Waller was placed on injured reserve, so Tua Tagovailoa will have one fewer weapon at his disposal.

The Motivation. Edge: Falcons.

The Falcons are coming off a loss on national TV.

The Spread. Edge: Falcons.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Falcons -10.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Falcons -6.

Computer Model: Falcons -10.

The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.

Slight lean on the Falcons early, and much more later.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 79% (6,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Falcons.

Opening Line: Falcons -5.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Dome.