2025 NFL Picks – Week 8: 49ers at Texans

The Matchup. Edge: None.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were: 34-42 in 2020, 48-37 in 2021, 32-35-1 in 2022, 31-27 ATS in 2023, and 49-45 in 2024. The public was 5-20 heading into Week 7.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Patriots -6.5

Colts +1.5

Dolphins +2.5

The public went 1-4 in Week 1, 1-3 in Week 2, 0-3 in Week 3, 1-4 in Week 4, 1-3 in Week 5, and 1-3 in Week 6. The public finally had a winning week in Week 7, going 2-1.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Bengals -6.5

Cowboys +3.5

49ers +1.5

Buccaneers -4.5

The public isn’t winning with favorites, so I guess they’re trying underdogs now.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49ers are catching the Texans at the right time. The right time for the 49ers, that is. That’s because George Kittle has returned to improve the offense.

I’m not referencing Kittle because the Texans have a big weakness to tight ends, though Kittle does have a favorable matchup in this contest. Kittle notably helps a lot in the running game. Christian McCaffrey, while making big plays as a receiver, struggled to find running room in the first six weeks of the season. That changed Sunday night, as Kittle was around to help McCaffrey burst through larger running lanes. That’ll be key here, as the Texans happen to be far worse against the run than the pass.

Speaking of the pass, we don’t know if Brock Purdy and Ricky Pearsall will be available. It’s not ideal if it’s Mac Jones again, though he’ll just be asked to be a game manager in a matchup against one of the best aerial defenses in the NFL. Protecting Jones (or Purdy) will be crucial against the Texans’ fierce pass rush. That’ll be possible with Trent Williams and Colton McKivitz blocking on the edge.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Texans were faced with a colossal mismatch against the Seahawks. They have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL, while Seattle has one of the best defensive fronts in the league. The result was C.J. Stroud struggling through three-and-a-half quarters. Stroud had a deer-in-the-headlights look at times.

If the 49ers still had a healthy Nick Bosa, I wouldn’t give Stroud much of a chance. However, Bosa’s absence means that San Francisco’s pass rush is diminished. The 49ers have only 106 pressures through seven games, so Stroud will have much more time in this contest. This will give him a chance to hook up with Nico Collins for some deep passes, provided that Collins is available to play after suffering a concussion Monday night.

Stroud may also have some relief from the running game. Moving the ball on the ground was impossible against Seattle’s elite ground defense, but with Fred Warner sidelined, the Texans will be better in this regard. If the coaching staff is smart enough to utilize Woody Marks and abandon the decrepit Nick Chubb, they’ll pick up big chunks via the rushing attack.

RECAP: The 49ers were favored in last week’s game, but it still feels like they’re coming off an upset loss because everyone and their evil stepmother was backing the Falcons. This automatically puts them into a bad spot, especially given that they opened as road favorites in this matchup. I can understand why the public wants to bet the 49ers over the Texans, but it’s impossible to ignore the line value. Houston was -2 on the advance line, so the +1.5 line provided us with some decent value. The Texans are now favored, however, due to sharp action coming in on them.

I’m not a big fan of backing bad teams off short work weeks, but I’m going to side with the Texans. Stroud and his entire offense will have a much easier time in this game against San Francisco’s injury-ravaged defense. Going against McCaffrey will be tough, but I could see the Texans pulling a home upset against San Francisco’s skeleton-crew roster.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Ricky Pearsall continued to miss practice, but Brock Purdy at least returned to a limited practice, so he has a chance to return to action.

The Motivation. Edge: Texans.

The 49ers are off a big pseudo upset win over the Falcons on national TV.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Texans -2.

Computer Model: Texans -2.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Everyone is back on the 49ers bandwagon.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 86% (17,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Texans -1.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Dome.