2025 NFL Picks – Week 8: Cowboys at Broncos

The Matchup. Edge: Broncos.

If you didn’t catch it, I posted two live bets during the Chiefs-Jaguars game. I tweeted out that I was betting the Trevor Lawrence and Patrick Mahomes rushing overs, and both hit. I’ll be posting more live bets on X because it takes time to upload things to the site, so by the time I do, the line may be stale. Follow me @walterfootball for those live betting updates.

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DENVER OFFENSE: It feels wrong to say something negative about how the Broncos performed offensively against the Giants, given that they scored 33 points in last week’s game. However, they were blanked for a while, even trailing 19-0 in the second half. Bo Nix spent most of the afternoon sailing helpless passes out of bounds. Nix eventually caught fire and led an incredible comeback, but it wasn’t pretty for a long time.

I’d say Nix will have a bounce-back performance from his first three quarters because this is an incredibly easy matchup, but it’s not like last week’s matchup was overly difficult. The Giants have a great pass rush, but they can’t cover at all, so Nix should have been able to put together a better game. Dallas has even worse issues on that side of the ball, so there won’t be excuses for another poor performance.

Nix ideally won’t even be in position to struggle. The Cowboys have the seventh-worst run defense in the NFL, so perhaps one of J.K. Dobbins or R.J. Harvey will get going. That was also a positive outlook last week, however, and the Giants are even worse against the run than the Cowboys are.

DALLAS OFFENSE: As bad as Denver’s offense was last week, the defense was arguably worse. Jaxson Dart was able to shred the Broncos for 32 points, and may have even won the game in overtime had it not been for a missed extra point late in regulation.

I assume this was some sort of fluke because the Broncos have elite defensive players and are ranked in the top 12 in defensive EPA. However, putting the clamps on the Cowboys could prove to be very difficult. Dak Prescott is playing at a very high level, and he has two terrific receivers at his disposal (plus Jake Ferguson) now that CeeDee Lamb is back from injury. The Broncos can put Patrick Surtain II on Lamb or George Pickens, but what about the other one? What about Ferguson?

While the Broncos are elite against the pass on most occasions, they’re not stout in run support. They’re a surprising 19th versus the rush, so perhaps Javonte Williams will be able to have a great revenge opportunity. Williams has shockingly reverted to the excellent runner we saw as a rookie before his torn ACL. I imagine Denver fans will be surprisd to see Williams running so well.

RECAP: I was eager to fade the Broncos last week because they were in a very tough scheduling spot, given that they had to travel from Denver, to Philadelphia, to London, and all the way back to Denver. It’s no surprise that the Broncos were so flat against the Giants. What’s puzzling me is why I switched my pick of New York for three units to Denver. I don’t know what I was thinking.

The Broncos are now in a better spot. Ideally, they would have lost to the Giants to set up a great betting opportunity here, but they won’t be nearly as fatigued as they were last week. Despite the fact that they’ll be in a better situation, the spread has gone from -4.5 on the advance line to -3. This is a huge move because we’re now getting a push with the No. 1 key number of three.

I’m inclined to take the value with the Broncos. I don’t love it – again, I wanted them to lose to the Giants in order to bet them here – but the Cowboys seem to be overrated now because of their win over the Redskins. It was a nice victory, but they still have an abysmal defense that should be exposed.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This line has moved from -3 to -3.5 despite tons of public money coming in on the Cowboys. Interesting. The Broncos look like the sharp side.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Broncos -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Broncos -4.5.

Computer Model: Broncos -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.

The Cowboys are a massive public dog.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 87% (19,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

Opening Line: Broncos -5.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: .