NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 10, 2025 – Early Games

NFL Picks (Week 1, 2025): 9-7 (-$725)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2025): 7-9 (-$925)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2025): 6-10 (-$1,285)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2025): 6-10 (+$410)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2025): 8-6 (-$25)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2025): 8-7 (-$785)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2025): 9-6 (+$1,160)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2025): 9-4 (+$115)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2025): 8-6 (-$545)
2025 NFL Picks: 79-67-1 (-$1,715)

2024 NFL Picks: 144-136-12 (-$1,380)
NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

---

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 9, 11:30 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 10 NFL Picks – Late Games

The Matchup. Edge: Broncos.

You may have noticed the site has a new look. Yes, after nearly two decades, we’ve finally re-designed our site to be more modern. This was not done on a whim, but rather out of necessity because of what occurred during the 2023 NFL Draft. Our site crashed during the entire first day of the draft, which was disastrous for our revenue stream because we make more money during the draft than any other time. The site crashed because a line of code conflicted with the old format of the site, so we had to transition to this new look.

Because we lost so much money during the draft, I want to point out that you can really help support the site by paying for the ad-free version of it. It’s $7.99 per month, but you’ll get a super-fast site with no ads. My developer will be adding new features to paid subscribers as well, so look for that in the near future. If you don’t want to pay, please spread the word about the site through word of mouth. That would also be a big help!

Week 9 Analysis: I thought last Sunday was frustrating. This Sunday, we had this go against us:

And that was before the Bengals onside kick recovery!

Not one special teams gaffe went our way. Not one, unless you want to count Ka’imi Fairbairn’s missed 53-yard field goal, but that was a long kick, and I’d never count a missed kick from 50-plus as bad luck for us.

I would really like to know what we’ve done to earn such horrible luck. It’s insane that we’ve had no breaks go our way concerning picks of four or more units this year. We caught one break in the Jets’ cover versus the Buccaneers in Week 3, and that was it for three-unit selections heading into Week 9. The fact that we’re not down 20-plus units despite all of our bad luck is saying that we’re handicapping most of the games at least somewhat well.

I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Bears, 3 units (win): I was losing my mind when the Bears surrendered an onside kick recovery, prompting the Bengals to complete a 14-point comeback in a few minutes. Thankfully, the Bears somehow ended up covering.

Patriots, 3 units (win): This one was in doubt for a while, but the Falcons came back and nearly won. That’s now two missed kicks for Atlanta to prevent possible victories.

Packers, 4 units (loss): One of two horrible picks I made last week. I shouldn’t have ignored that the Packers were coming off a big win and had the Eagles coming up on the following Monday night.

Lions, 3 units (loss): This is not the second horrible pick, as the injury bug bit us hard. The Lions lost three offensive linemen to injury in this game, including both of their tackles.

Broncos, 3 units (win): The Broncos were able to benefit from C.J. Stroud’s injury. Is that lucky? Perhaps, but we’ve seen Stroud really struggle against top defenses all year. I don’t think the Texans would have won this game with Stroud, but in fairness, I would have complained about it had I selected Houston.

Chargers, 5 units (loss): In addition to the punt return listed above, Justin Herbert also threw a pick-six, and then Joe Alt got injured. Of the two quarterbacks to throw a pick-six in this game, it had to be Herbert? Cam Ward couldn’t give the Chargers a turnover? Really?

Redskins, 3 units (loss): The second horrible pick, and perhaps the worst selection I made all year. I ignored the obvious signs that the Redskins were a complete mess.

DENVER OFFENSE: Denver’s win over the Texans wasn’t the first time this year that Bo Nix struggled for most of the game, only to come through in the clutch to win at the very end. It’s unclear why Nix didn’t utilize his legs more earlier in the game, but he had two key scrambles to defeat Houston at the very end.

Nix shouldn’t have any issues in this matchup. The Raiders have a dreadful defense that can’t do anything well. Maxx Crosby is healthy again, and yet the Raiders still have one of the worst pressure rates in the NFL despite his presence. Nix didn’t have any time in the pocket last week against the Texans, but that will change in this matchup. As a result, Nix will have his way against Las Vegas’ poor secondary.

The Broncos will be able to run the ball effectively, too. The Raiders looked completely helpless to contain Travis Etienne and Bhayshul Tuten at the end of last week’s game. This was not a surprise, given that the Raiders are 21st against ground attacks.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: Andy Iskoe, a professional handicapper since 1990, said on our Wednesday show that the Raiders offensive line is the worst he’s ever seen. That’s saying a lot, though the Raiders did hold up well versus Jacksonville. The Jaguars are in the middle of the pack in pressure rate, so this wasn’t too shocking of a result, but still, a bit surprising.

It would be absolutely unbelievable if the Raiders were able to keep Denver’s pass rushers out of the backfield. The Broncos lead in the NFL in pressures – check out the NFL Pressure Rates via the link – so it doesn’t seem possible that the Raiders will give Geno Smith ample time to find his mediocre receivers against Denver’s secondary. Patrick Surtain will continue to be sidelined, but I don’t think it’ll matter because Smith will be on his back the entire night. Plus, Jakobi Meyers was just traded. Check out my NFL Trade Grades page for more.

The Raiders won’t be able to run the ball either. Ashton Jeanty is the league leader in yards before contract, so his misfortune will continue. The Broncos aren’t amazing against the run, but their 11th ranking in that regard will stymie Jeanty. And with Meyers gone, the Broncos will be able to play closer to the line of scrimmage.

RECAP: My rule for Thursdays is to back the better team as long as they’re focused. The thinking is that the inferior team doesn’t have enough preparation time to formulate a good game plan against the superior foe.

The Broncos are obviously better than the Raiders. They also match up extremely well against them. How will the Raiders’ atrocious offensive line handle the Denver pass rush? With Meyers gone, who, besides Brock Bowers, will get open? And how will Las Vegas’ defense stop anything?

Also, consider that the Raiders will be exhausted because they just had an overtime affair that went the whole 10 minutes. This is a horrible spot for any squad; teams playing on Thursdays after an overtime game are 6-25 against the spread dating all the way back to 2002. Thanks to Charles B. for the reminder!

Our Week 10 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There are no major injuries on the report for this game, so this pick will remain a four-unit selection on the Broncos.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: BetMGM has a $20 no-sweat bet, so we’ll use that for our player prop. We’re going with Michael Mayer over receptions because he’s being used much more recently, and that usage will continue to rise because of the Jakobi Meyers trade. The best number is over 2.5 receptions +100 at BetMGM.

Our same-game parlay will be built at DraftKings because it has a 30-percent boost for this game. We’re going with Mayer over 2.5 receptions, Ashton Jeanty over 2.5 receptions, and Evan Engram over 3.5 receptions. This $25 parlay pays $162.50. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps haven’t touched this game, which is a bit of a surprise. I still love Denver. The best number is -8.5 -103 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Broncos.

The Raiders will be exhausted off a full overtime.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Broncos -9.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Broncos -9.5.

Computer Model: Broncos -6.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

Decent lean on the Broncos.

Percentage of money on Denver: 67% (227,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Raiders.

History: Raiders have won 8 of the previous 10 meetings.

Opening Line: Broncos -9.5.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Clear, 54 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Colts.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

BOYCOTT GAME: I will be boycotting this game, and I urge all of you to do the same. When the NFL had one game in Europe and played it at 1 p.m. Eastern, I was fine with it. Two games began pushing it, and then three games were unacceptable. Now, there are seven European games, and they all begin at 6:30 a.m. on the West Coast, which absolutely screws everyone living in that time zone. Football needs to be in America; not Europe. The NFL needs to go back to just one European game. Tell Roger Goodell to f**k off and buy this Make Football American Again t-shirt:

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Colts entered Week 9 with the highest-scoring offense in the NFL, but following an impressive opening drive, they couldn’t generate anything. The Steelers clamped down on the Colts, who scored only 20 points.

The Falcons are also ranked highly on the defensive side of the ball, coming in at seventh in EPA. However, there’s reason to believe that the Colts will have more success scoring this week. For one, it’s possible that they were simply caught looking ahead to playing overseas, and given how bad the Steelers looked on national TV the prior week, the Colts didn’t take them seriously. Two, the Falcons are not good against the run. We saw the Dolphins gash them two weeks ago. Atlanta is just 23rd versus the rush.

Daniel Jones won’t have as much success throwing the ball as Jonathan Taylor will have running it. The Falcons generate a strong pass rush and cover well. However, Jones will be able to feed off Taylor’s great runs in favorable down-and-distance situations. He’ll also be able to scramble for some yardage.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: The Colts are not known as a team that generates lots of heat on opposing quarterbacks, so most people might be surprised that they ranked third in pressures heading into Week 9. They’ve needed to generate lots of pressure on opposing quarterbacks, given the injuries they have in the secondary.

Michael Penix Jr. can’t be happy to hear that the Colts are able to get after the quarterback frequently. This is because the Falcons are among the worst 10 teams at surrendering pressure in the NFL. Penix isn’t great at avoiding the pass rush right now, which might explain why the Falcons averaged 5.0 or worse yards per play in the two games this year against teams currently in the top 10 of pressure rate.

Making matters worse for the Falcons, it’s apparent that Bijan Robinson won’t be able to run very well in this matchup. The Colts have the interior defensive line personnel to handle opposing rushing attacks favorably, so Robinson will have to do a lot of his work through the air.

RECAP: My rule for international games is the same one as the one I have for Thursday games: Back the superior team as long as they’re focused. The reason for this is that the inferior team won’t have the adequate preparation time it needs to overcome a difficult opponent.

I’m confident in saying that the Colts are better than the Falcons. However, they’re not that far apart for Indianapolis to be favored by 5.5 points on a neutral field. I made this line Indianapolis -3.5.

However, this isn’t a normal game. It’s difficult to quantify how much the international effect favors the better team, and really, we don’t even know if it’ll benefit the Colts because some of the players and coaches may have more issues with jetlag than their counterparts. These are just things we don’t know.

Given the matchup and the talent between these teams, I’m going to side with the Colts. However, I have no desire to bet one of these international bulls**t games. Boycott!

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The boycott will continue. I really have no interest in betting this game. Tweet at @nflcommish and tell him how stupid he is for scheduling these horrible games.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Colts won’t have DeForest Buckner or Samson Ebukam, so their pass rush will be weaker than usual. This has to sound good to the Falcons, who won’t have one of their guards, Matthew Bergeron. I still have no interest in betting this international exhibition game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps haven’t touched this game. Perhaps they’re also tired from these stupid international exhibition games. The best line is -6 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Falcons.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Colts -3.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Colts -7.

Computer Model: Colts -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.

Decent action on the Colts.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 67% (159,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Colts -6.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 48 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Browns.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were: 34-42 in 2020, 48-37 in 2021, 32-35-1 in 2022, 31-27 ATS in 2023, and 49-45 in 2024. The public was 10-24 heading into Week 9.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Chargers -9.5

Lions -8.5

Broncos +2.5

Rams -14

Ravens -7.5

Cowboys -3.5

The public went 1-4 in Week 1, 1-3 in Week 2, 0-3 in Week 3, 1-4 in Week 4, 1-3 in Week 5, and 1-3 in Week 6. The public finally had a winning week in Week 7, going 2-1. As for Week 8, the public was an even 3-3. It also went 3-3 in Week 9.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Bills -9.5

Lions -8.5

Browns +1

Eagles +2.5

All four teams are on the road, with two being favorites and two being underdogs.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Jets have stated that they haven’t determined which quarterback will start for them this week, but it’s difficult to imagine it not being Justin Fields. Prior to the bye, Fields led the Jets to their first victory of the season, so it would send a bad message if he were suddenly benched. Also, Tyrod Taylor dealt with an injury ahead of Week 8, so the Jets can just say that he’s not 100 percent.

Fields was great versus the Bengals, but he won’t have nearly as much success against the other Ohio team. I don’t need to tell you that there’s a huge difference between the Cincinnati and Cleveland defenses, especially when the Bengals don’t have Trey Hendrickson, which was the case in the second half of the Jets contest. While the Bengals are a bottom-three defense, the Browns are ranked in the top three. Myles Garrett will terrorize Fields, who will have problems throwing into Cleveland’s secondary.

The Jets won’t be able to run much either. Breece Hall had an explosive performance against the Bengals, but he won’t have nearly as many running lanes versus the Browns’ second-ranked rush defense.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: If the Browns even had a mediocre defense, they’d be a shoo-in for the playoffs. That, however, is not the case. The Browns have some big problems on this side of the ball. The tackle play has been pedestrian this year, while Jerry Jeudy has been a huge disappointment after finishing strong in 2024. The biggest problem, of course, is the quarterback play, as Dillon Gabriel is a dink-and-dunk machine who doesn’t threaten defenses whatsoever.

Despite Gabriel starting again, the Browns will have a good chance to move the chains. That would be via Quinshon Judkins, who is the sole bright spot of the offense, aside from the tight end play. Judkins has been terrific since returning from what was perceived to be a sure suspension. He has a great matchup in this game, as he’ll be battling the Jets, who have been horrific against the rush for years. That includes this season, with their 25th ranking against the run.

Also, the Jets have traded two starting cornerbacks, including All-Pro Sauce Gardner, since the last time they took the field. Perhaps Jeudy, who has been a non-factor all year, will do something coming out of the bye.

RECAP: The Browns have the much better defense and slightly superior rushing attack (when factoring the defensive matchup), and yet we’re getting them as an underdog. It may not seem like a great situation to back Gabriel in a near-pick ’em game, but it worked against the Dolphins a few weeks ago. The Browns could treat the Jets similarly.

I like the Browns for a few units once again. In addition to backing the superior squad, we’re also able to fade a horrible team off a win, which is often a very profitable scenario.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Jets are now home underdogs in the wake of their two trades. I already liked the Browns, and now they’re even more appealing because Quinnen Williams won’t be around to rush the passer or help stop the run.

SATURDAY NOTES: Garrett Wilson is the only prominent Jet with an injury designation. He’s questionable, but he practiced fully on Friday, so it would be a surprise if he didn’t play. Of course, the Jets are missing Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams, which makes their defense so much worse. The Browns, meanwhile, may not have talented linebacker Carson Schwesinger after he went DNP-DNP-limited this week.

GAME PROPS: This is a recommendation from the chat during Friday’s live stream (it may have been Thursday’s.) I’m betting Jets under 19.5 total points. I’m doing this at BetMGM, which has a 20-percent profit boost for the NFL.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The only piece of injury news is that the Jets will have Garrett Wilson. There was some sharp money on the Browns earlier in the week when they were underdogs. The best line is Browns -2 -108 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Browns.

The Jets are a horrible team coming off a win.

The Spread. Edge: Browns.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Browns -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Jets -1.5.

Computer Model: Browns -2.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

The Browns were a public dog. Now they’re a public favorite.

Percentage of money on Cleveland: 57% (82,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Kevin Stefanski is 15-23 ATS as a favorite. ???

Opening Line: Jets -1.5.

Opening Total: 37.5.

Weather: Rain, 61 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Panthers.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s a message from Facebook:

I got this during the Broncos-Texans game. I picked Denver. The Broncos were down 15-7, but came back and won 18-15. Naturally, I didn’t get a response saying, “My bad, you were right all along!”

Instead…

Apparently, coming back from a one-score deficit is lucky in this guy’s mind. That’s just the natural flow of the game.

I also can’t believe he’s using the Bears cover to determine if I’m lucky. Cincinnati was able to come back from down 14 because of an onside kick recovery and a negated defensive touchdown. The fact that the Bears were even in a position to lose was unlucky. But not in this delusional mind.

Last one from this guy:

Apparently not. I guess I can’t get everything right.

Here’s another person – an old friend, in fact – talking about the same game:

John Capricotti is back! He finally completed his chores and is able to post on social media. Congrats on getting all your chores done, John!

CAROLINA OFFENSE: It’s shocking, but the Panthers are 5-4. Their record is a complete fluke, but there’s no denying that they’ve at least found something with Rico Dowdle. Though we’ve called him Rico Doodle on our live streams, Dowdle has been excellent since replacing the injured Chuba Hubbard. He trampled over Green Bay’s defense last week, helping the Panthers to pull a gargantuan upset.

Dowdle doesn’t have the best matchup this week, given that the Saints are better against the run than the pass. However, New Orleans is just 15th versus the run, so there will be an opportunity for Dowdle to gain significant yardage to make Bryce Young’s life easier.

I wasn’t bullish on Young’s outlook last week because he was coming off a high-ankle sprain, but he’ll be in a better position to succeed this week. The Saints have a horrible aerial defense, thanks to sketchy secondary play and a pass rush that is ranked in the bottom 10 of pressure rate. The Panthers are missing some offensive linemen, but the Saints don’t exactly have the personnel to exploit this liability.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Saints wanted to get a look at Tyler Shough last week, given that they need to know what they have in the 40th-overall pick with the 2026 NFL Draft upcoming in six months. Shough didn’t get much of an opportunity, however, because the Rams controlled the clock for 44 minutes.

From what we saw out of Shough, he made some impressive downfield throws, but also was responsible for some poor passes as well. He didn’t have very good pass protection in front of him, as his injury-ravaged offensive line didn’t match up well against the Rams’ ferocious pass rush. Shough will have more of an opportunity this week because the Panthers rank second-to-last in pressure rate.

It’s not completely rosy for the Saints, as Shough won’t have the luxury of a strong rushing attack setting up short-yardage opportunities for him. Spencer Rattler was able to enjoy his best games when he had Alvin Kamara and Kendre Miller picking up significant yardage versus poor run defenses, but this isn’t that sort of matchup. Aside from games against the Bills and Patriots, the Panthers have handled opposing rushing attacks rather well since Week 2.

RECAP: We’ve seen a couple of these “Group F at Group D” games this season. In Week 2, the Russell Wilson-led Giants went into Dallas, and two weeks ago, the Jets traveled to Cincinnati. In both instances, the Group D host was favored by a spread close to a touchdown, and in both instances, the underdog covered. The Jets even won outright.

The Panthers have a solid record, but they’re not good enough to be favored by more than a field goal against anyone, save perhaps for the Titans. Of their five wins this year, three of them have been by exactly a field goal. One came via a touchdown, while the other was the 30-0 game in which the Falcons laid a complete egg. If the Panthers win this game, it’s likely going to be by three points.

The thing is, I’m not even convinced the Panthers will win this game. The Saints are certainly live dogs. They’re 1-8, but they’ve faced only one team worse than Group C this year. That would be the Group D Jaxson Dart-led Giants, whom the Saints defeated several weeks ago. Otherwise, every else the Saints have battled is in Group A-C. The Panthers, conversely, have had the luxury of beating two Group F teams (Jets, Dolphins).

If the Saints and Panthers swapped their schedules, I think their records would be very close. I don’t think the Saints would be 5-4, but they’d maybe have two or three wins, while the Panthers would be 3-6, or so. Given that, as well as the fact that the Panthers are coming off such a huge upset, the Saints look like a promising selection this week. I wouldn’t go nuts with it, but I’m willing to bet two or three units on the Group F visitor.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Rashid Shaheed is gone, but I still think the Saints are the play. A team as bad as the Panthers should not be favored by 5.5 points over anyone, save for the Titans.

SATURDAY NOTES: Tetairoa McMillan showed up on the injury report with a hamstring injury. He was limited in Friday’s practice instead of being a DNP, so I’m not too worried. I still like the Saints for a couple of units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps haven’t touched this game. I was hoping we’d get a viable +6 line at some point, but that hasn’t happened. The best line is +5 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Saints.

The Panthers are a bad team coming off a huge upset win.

The Spread. Edge: Saints.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Panthers -4.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Panthers -3.5.

Computer Model: Panthers -4.

The Vegas. Edge: Saints.

Tons on the Panthers.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 75% (84,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

History: Saints have won 13 of the last 19 meetings.

Opening Line: Panthers -3.5.

Opening Total: 39.5.

Weather: Slight chance of thunderstorms, 68 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

We have a new section on the site! we have a place for WalterFootball.com Video Content. We’ll be releasing short videos (8-20 minutes) on this page, with a new video each day. It’ll be a quick way to get NFL picks, fantasy football, and NFL Draft content.

MIAMI OFFENSE: Tua Tagovailoa has had some ugly games this year, but he wasn’t completely at fault for the Dolphins’ blowout loss to the Ravens. There were some mistakes by his skill players and some miscommunications.

Tagovailoa performed well against the Bills on a Thursday night back in Week 3, but it’s worth noting that he did this with Tyreek Hill. With both Hill and Darren Waller sidelined, Tagovailoa doesn’t have much at his disposal. There’s Jaylen Waddle, but the Bills have some talented cornerbacks to limit him. The Bills also have an improved pass rush that will be able to rattle Tagovailoa in the pocket.

The Dolphins’ best chance of moving the chains consistently is via the run. The Bills haven’t been strong against the run because Matt Milano missed extensive time. Milano made his return to action last week, but only played about half the snaps. Milano is usually slow to return to form, so I don’t expect him to be 100 percent just yet. Also, the Bills are missing their two starting defensive tackles, so this is something Miami must exploit.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: Of course, there are going to be plenty of opportunities for Josh Allen and the Bills offense to exploit what the Dolphins have going on defensively. Miami already had one of the worst-ranked defenses in the NFL, and it’ll now be operating without Jaelan Phillips, who had nearly a quarter of the team’s pressures.

Allen will have even more time than usual to locate his weapons. He can also scramble for big gains against a Miami defense that has had issues with mobile quarterbacks. The Dolphins are better against rushing attacks, ranking 17th in that regard, but we know James Cook can exploit this matchup because he’s done so already.

RECAP: There’s a huge talent disparity between these teams. Of course, we already knew that from the spread, but I don’t think the spread is high enough to account for that discrepancy. I believe the line should be above -10 and upwards toward -14. I made the line -12.5.

I love fading these Group F teams, but I don’t think I can bring myself to bet the Bills in this situation. It’s a tough one because they’re coming off a huge win against the Chiefs. They’re also battling a team they’ve already beaten earlier in the season. The Bills are just 2-2 against the spread following regular-season wins against the Chiefs, so they could cover, but this is just a bad spot.

There are plenty of other good betting opportunities this week, so i think we can move on and refrain from wagering on a poor spot or a horrible team.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: If you’re interested in longform discussions about the NFL, Andy Iskoe and I had a 3-hour conversation about the Week 10 NFL Picks. We spent a lot of time talking about the motivation, or rather the urgency of the Bills in this game:

SATURDAY NOTES: The Bills might be getting DaQuan Jones back from injury, but they have two top cornerbacks – Christian Benford, Taron Johnson – who are both questionable after missing one practice each this week. Meanwhile, the Dolphins will be without their top cornerback, Rasul Douglas, as well as their best edge rusher, Jaelan Phillips, who was traded to the Eagles. I still have no strong opinion on this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps pounded the Dolphins on Sunday morning. Perhaps that’s because of Buffalo’s many injuries. The Bills will be missing two top cornerbacks (Christian Benford, Taron Johnson), as well as A.J. Epenesa and Shaq Thompson (not to mention Ed Oliver, who is on injured reserve.) If you still like the Bills, you can get them at -8 -103 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Dolphins.

The Bills are coming off a win versus the Chiefs.

The Spread. Edge: Bills.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -12.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bills -8.5.

Computer Model: Bills -7.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 88% (102,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.

History: Bills have won 20 of the last 25 meetings.

Opening Line: Bills -8.5.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 86 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Texans.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Futures page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The Jaguars made a significant trade ahead of the deadline, acquiring Jakobi Meyers from the Raiders. Meyers will be able to help Jacksonville later in the year, but it doesn’t seem likely that he’ll be fully integrated into the playbook so soon. Besides, Meyers will be matched up against Houston’s elite pass defense.

A big part of Houston’s success against aerial attacks is their pass rush. The Texans average more than 20 pressures per game, which is above the league average. They’ll be able to hound Trevor Lawrence, who doesn’t have quality blocking in front of him. Jacksonville’s offensive line has surrendered the eighth-most pressures this year, so Lawrence will be flustered. His struggles will continue.

The Texans are worse against the run than the pass, but they’re not that bad at stopping rushing attacks. They’re a league-average 16th in that regard, so it doesn’t seem as though Travis Etienne will have the same, dominant performance he enjoyed versus the Raiders in the second half and overtime last week.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Texans likely won’t have strong play from their quarterback either, unless C.J. Stroud makes a surprisingly quick recovery from his concussion. With Stroud likely out, it’ll be Davis Mills again.

Mills actually handled himself well in the first half of last week’s game against Denver. He fell apart in the second half, but was battling one of the top defenses in the NFL. Jacksonville’s defense isn’t nearly as good. The Jaguars are 21st in defensive EPA. They’re in the middle of the pack when it comes to generate pressure, so that has to be a relief for Mills, given the status of his offensive line. With only Josh Hines-Allen to worry about, Mills will be able to connect often with Nico Collins.

The Jaguars are better against the run than the pass, ranking 13th in that regard. As a result, I wouldn’t expect much from Nick Chubb, though that would be the case regardless of matchup. It’s obvious that the Texans need to give Woody Marks more of a workload, but they somehow haven’t come to realize that yet.

RECAP: Even if Mills is named the starter for this game, I’ll be on the Texans. Backing Mills may not seem great, but reserve quarterbacks are a solid play against mediocre or worse defenses. Jacksonville is 21st in defense and average at generating pressure, so Mills will be a functional quarterback this week.

The quarterback you need to worry about in this game is actually Lawrence. The former No. 1 overall pick has really struggled this year, and he may be without his top two receivers. Meyers will be on the team, but he won’t know the playbook yet, so there might be some miscommunications. Furthermore, Jacksonville’s offensive line has resembled a turnstile this year with 110 pressures allowed. The unit won’t stand a chance against Houston’s ferocious front.

Though the records say otherwise, the Texans seem like the better team than the Jaguars. I’ll be backing them for a few units.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: C.J. Stroud has been declared out. The Texans are now home underdogs. I’m still confident in them, despite the news, which is something we already anticipated.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Jaguars are going to be down their top two receivers, but they’ll have Jakobi Meyers coming in just in time to help at the position. They’ll be without Ezra Cleveland as well, which will hurt their already-shoddy pass protection. And speaking of shoddy protection, the Texans won’t have two starting offensive linemen: their top pass protector, Tytus Howard, and their best run blocker, Ed Ingram. It’s safe to say that this is not a bullish outlook for Davis Mills. Given these injury developments, I’m not going to bet on the Texans.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Perhaps I shouldn’t have taken my units off the Texans because the sharps have been betting them on Sunday morning. I’m going to put back one of the three units I removed. The best line is -1 -101 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Texans -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Texans -3.

Computer Model: Texans -2.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Texans.

Slight lean on the Jaguars.

Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 60% (81,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Texans.

History: Texans have won 23 of the last 30 meetings.

Opening Line: Texans -2.5.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Ravens.

If you’d like to support this site outside of buying my books or referring people to it, you can check out the WalterFootball Merch Store as well! I can design shirts rather easily, so if you have any new ideas, let me know in the comments below. In addition to WalterFootball t-shirts, you can also buy AMC and GameStop stock gear as well!

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: There was some drama regarding Lamar Jackson’s return to action in Week 7. He ultimately played four days later in a blowout win over the Dolphins. Jackson didn’t look very comfortable in the first half, but he improved as the evening progressed. He didn’t run very much, which is understandable, given the nature of his injury. He’ll do more running moving forward.

I imagine Jackson will escape the pocket and pick up some yardage with his legs in this game. The Vikings blitz at the highest clip in the NFL, but that’s not a negative for Jackson, who is terrific against the blitz. His numbers when blitzed exceed those when he’s not blitzed, so this seems like a rough matchup for the Vikings. I wrote the same thing last week about Jared Goff, but Detroit lost three offensive linemen to injury, including both tackles. The Lions never had a chance.

If the Ravens retain all of their blockers in this game, they’ll be able to open up some nice running lanes for Derrick Henry. The Vikings have been poor against the run for most of the season, so Henry should be able to put together a strong performance.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Speaking of offensive linemen, the Vikings were able to retain both of their tackles last week. Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill have missed extensive time this year, but they were finally able to take the field together. I was worried about them being 100 percent as they returned from injury, but they handled themselves well against Aidan Hutchinson and the Detroit pass rush. O’Neill wasn’t amazing, but Darrisaw performed like a Pro Bowler.

O’Neill should be healthier this week, and even if he’s not, the Ravens don’t have the same sort of pass rush that the Lions possess. Their yearly numbers are a byproduct of injuries, but Baltimore wasn’t great on the edge in the first place. Thus, J.J. McCarthy won’t be too bothered by pressure, allowing him to locate his talented weapons once again.

While the Ravens will be better against the pass because of their once-injured players returning to action, I’m still concerned about the run defense because of Nnamdi Madubuike’s continued absence. Jordan Mason should run well, as should Aaron Jones, provided that he doesn’t miss this game after getting banged up last week.

RECAP: It’s a shame these teams are playing against each other this week. They are both teams I’d be interested in backing because they are underrated as a result of their records. I viewed both the Ravens and Vikings as Super Bowl contenders to start the year, but their seasons were derailed by a ridiculous number of injuries. Yet, they’re mostly healthy now and are both capable of going on a run to reach the playoffs.

I feel like I’m deciding between which of my kids I like more when handicapping this game. This is a tough one, but I’m going to side with the Vikings. I made this line Minnesota +1.5, so I’m siding with the line value. However, the Ravens are the better team, so I don’t feel comfortable fading them.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: If the Vikings lose this game, they’ll be worth a play next week against the Bears at a discounted price. The advance line is only -2.5!

SATURDAY NOTES: There are no major injuries on either side. In fact, the Ravens don’t have a single player on their injury report. That’s quite the difference from what we saw from them in Weeks 4-6.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps hadn’t touched this game until Sunday morning, but that’s when they placed some bets on the Ravens. The best number for the Vikings is +4.5 -105 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Vikings.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Ravens -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -3.5.

Computer Model: Ravens -3.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 59% (106,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Ravens.

John Harbaugh is 16-8 ATS in his second-consecutive road game.

Vikings are 50-40 ATS at home since 2014 (19-25 ATS since 2020).

Opening Line: Ravens -3.5.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Drake Maye continues to impress. His potential MVP season now sees him with a 7-2 record, as he defeated another tough defense. He’s knocked off two top-10 defenses in consecutive weeks, vanquishing the Browns and Falcons.

Maye will face another difficult test this week. The Buccaneers logged the second-most pressures in the NFL heading into Week 9, trailing only the Broncos. Not only that; Tampa Bay has been excellent at defending mobile quarterbacks over the years, so Todd Bowles’ defense should have an answer for Maye’s scrambles. Maye also won’t be able to depend on his rushing attack to aid him, given how great the Buccaneers are at defending the run.

Another problem for Maye is that he may not have his favorite weapon, Kayshon Boutte, because the young receiver got banged up last week. Stefon Diggs and Hunter Henry will still be available, but the depth concerning Maye’s weapons won’t be optimal.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Baker Mayfield won’t feel very sorry for Maye. Mayfield, of course, has operated most of this season with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin sidelined. We projected all along that Godwin would return in November, so he could be available for this game. Still, he may not be 100 percent, so Mayfield will have to continue to rely on Emeka Egbuka.

Egbuka will look to pick up where Drake London left off last week. London had a monster game versus the Patriots, and Egbuka is talented enough to duplicate what London was able to produce. The question is if Mayfield will have ample time to find Egbuka, given that the Patriots tend to generate decent pressure on the quarterback.

Like the Buccaneers, the Patriots are also stout against the run. There’s a chance Bucky Irving will return this week, but even if he does, he won’t find much running room against New England’s stalwart front.

RECAP: I don’t really see much of an edge in this game. These teams are mostly evenly matched. I’d give the Patriots a slight edge, but it must be brought up that they haven’t beaten top competition this year outside of ther win against the Bills, who then went on to the Falcons. The Buccaneers also haven’t defeated top competition. However, they’ve had the luxury of a week off, so perhaps that will help in this matchup.

This is the toughest game of the week to handicap. I certainly won’t be betting it. It must be noted that the sharps have been betting Tampa Bay early in the week, so perhaps that’s a sign that the host is the right side.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Andy Iskoe said on our show that he loves the Buccaneers, citing the Patriots’ poor schedule so far:

SATURDAY NOTES: The good news for the Buccaneers is that they may get Luke Goedeke back from injury. The bad news is that Bucky Irving, Chris Godwin, and Haason Reddick aren’t ready despite the bye. The Patriots won’t have Rhamondre Stevenson or Kayshon Boutte, but they should be fine. I’d pick them if I had to bet a side.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps haven’t touched this game, which isn’t a surprise. If I were betting this game, I’d pay up for the +3 -122 available at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Pick.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Buccaneers -2.5.

Computer Model: Patriots -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

Slight lean on the Patriots.

Percentage of money on New England: 60% (111,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

Road Team is 148-101 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Patriots are 31-18 ATS on the road vs. NFC opponents since 2001.

Buccaneers are 46-77 ATS at home in the previous 123 instances.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -1.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 82 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Bears.

Video of the Week: Here’s a Pitch Meeting video. I’m a huge fan of the animated Super Mario Bros. movie – and my 2-year-old son is as well – so I was excited to see that they did a pitch video for it:

Despite my love for the movie, those were all fair criticisms. ‘Member blue shell and rainbow road? I ‘member blue shell and rainbow road.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Caleb Williams has had his inconsistencies through a season and a half, but he was stellar against the Bengals. Then again, so is everyone else, especially if Trey Hendrickson is sidelined. If Williams could battle the Hendrickson-less Bengals each week, he’d be a first-ballot Hall of Famer.

Then again, it’s not like the Giants are very good defensively either. They have a strong pass rush, but that’s about it on this side of the ball. They had some talented defensive backs, but injuries have ruined their secondary. Williams could get into trouble against the New York edge rushers if he holds on to the ball forever, but at least his receivers should get open.

Williams may not have to do much, however, if he can just feed the ball to his running backs. Whether it’s D’Andre Swift or Kyle Monangai, the Bears will be able to run the ball easily against the Giants, who have the second-worst rush defense in the NFL. Only the Bengals are worse, and we just saw what Monangai did in that matchup.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Giants gave their fans some excitement for some time, but that ended a couple of weeks ago when Cam Skattebo was knocked out with a gruesome ankle injury. The team looked dejected and has played poorly since that injury. Running back is a replaceable position, but with nothing at receiver, the Giants were counting on Skattebo for so much. With Skattebo gone, Jaxson Dart is asked to do everything on his own, which is just too tall of a task.

The good news for Dart is that he’ll be battling the worst pressure rate in the NFL. No team gets to the quarterback less frequently than the Bears. Chicago also has injury issues at cornerback, with multiple players at the position sidelined. If the Giants still had a healthy Malik Nabers, they’d be able to take advantage of that liability. Darius Slayton and Wan’Dale Robinson won’t be able to do that.

The one area in which the Bears are semi-decent defensively is run support. They’re actually ninth versus the rush, so don’t count on Tyrone Tracy or Devin Singletary producing anything. It’ll all be on Dart, which is why having either Nabers or Skattebo would be so crucial.

RECAP: I don’t really see a good betting opportunity in this game. Both offenses have edges against the opposing defense, though I’d say Chicago’s edge – the rushing attack – is better than what the Giants have because New York is shorthanded. However, that’s where the spread is a factor. The Bears are favored by more than a field goal, which seems correct. The line is -3.5, and I projected it to be -4.5, so that difference is negligible.

I’m going to side with the Bears because of their superior edge. Plus, the fact that they’re favored by 3.5 points and not three means that the sportsbooks aren’t afraid of the sharps coming in on the Giants +3, so that’s a bullish indicator on Chicago.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I wrote above that I don’t see a good betting opportunity, but I’m not sure why I said that because the Bears seem like a very good play to me. They should be able to run all over the Giants, while New York’s lack of weapons will prevent it from exposing the Bears’ weakness, which is the pass defense. I’m planning on betting three or so units on the Bears.

SATURDAY NOTES: A couple of reasons why I won’t be betting this game. First, there might be snow in this contest. This will hurt the Bears more than the Giants because they’re the only team with the viable passing attack in this matchup. Second, the Bears won’t have their best defensive player, T.J. Edwards. If you want to know how impactful Edwards is, the last time he missed a game, Ashton Jeanty ran for nearly 200 yards against Chicago. The Bears have stuffed the run ever since Edwards returned after that, but his absence will have a huge impact.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Giants will have Jevon Holland back in the lineup, while the Bears won’t have T.J. Edwards. The sharps haven’t touched this game. The best line is -4.5 -106 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bears -4.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bears -3.

Computer Model: Bears -4.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Chicago: 55% (98,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Bears -3.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Slight chance of snow, 37 degrees. Mild/heavy wind, 15 mph.