2023 NFL Picks – Week 10: Browns at Ravens

The Matchup. Edge: None.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides were 32-35-1 last year, and they are now 16-16 ATS.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Jets +3.5

Browns -11.5

Seahawks +6

Vikings +4

The public hit two of its three top plays on Sunday. They lost with the Jets, however.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Lions -1.5

Seahawks -6

Steelers -3

Cowboys -15.5

Cardinals +1.5

Bills -8.5

A wide variety of bets. Some road favorites, some home favorites and even one home dog!

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Browns have a great defense, but the unit didn’t perform very well in the Week 4 matchup against the Ravens. Lamar Jackson nearly completed every pass he threw, going 15-of-19 for 186 yards and two touchdowns. He also scored twice on the ground. Cleveland had no answer for him, though it must be noted that the Browns gave a lackluster effort because they knew they had no chance with Dorian Thompson-Robinson at the helm.

The Browns should have a better effort in this contest, and they’ll be able to put lots of pressure on Jackson. It’s likely that Jackson will have to use his legs more to escape pressure, as he rushed for “only” 27 yards in the first meeting. Jackson’s weapons will also have issues getting open. The Browns cover receivers well and are atop the league when it comes to clamping down on tight ends.

The Ravens have gotten a lot out of their running backs lately, but that likely won’t continue in this game. The Browns also thrive at stopping the run, so Gus Edwards’ touchdown tirade is likely to come to an end.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: It was unclear what we’d see out of Deshaun Watson in his first game back from rotator cuff injury. He struggled early, but improved as the game progressed. Still, it’s fair to be skeptical because he was battling the worst defense in the NFL.

The Ravens will obviously provide a much tougher challenge than the Cardinals did last week. Amari Cooper was able to get open easily against Arizona’s putrid secondary, but the Ravens cover receivers extremely well. They are less potent against tight ends compared to the Browns, so perhaps David Njoku can pick up the slack.

Baltimore will also be able to shut down the run. The Browns have a better ground defense, but the Ravens are still ranked near the top against opposing running backs, and it’s not like the Browns have an imposing ground game.

RECAP: This is a difficult game to handicap. The Ravens are undoubtedly better than the Browns, and I say undoubtedly because the Browns are now down their two starting tackles in the wake of Jedrick Wills’ injury. The Ravens have a stellar defense, and I don’t know how Cleveland will keep them out of the backfield. Also, it’s tough to trust Deshaun Watson when he’s not battling one of the worst defenses in the NFL.

However, I have to wonder about Baltimore’s focus in this game. The Ravens already beat the Browns in blowout fashion, so they may not take them seriously. Also, they have to battle the Bengals in just four days after this game. They have to know that Cincinnati, despite having the same record as Cleveland, is a greater threat to them now that Joe Burrow is healthy. I could see the Ravens being distracted and not playing their best.

I’m going to side with the Browns for the motivational perspective, but I will point out that motivation has been the weakest of these angles this year, as you can see if you scroll down and look at all the records.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s still plenty of time for things to change, but the sharps are betting the Browns. It’s odd that they’re simply willing to ignore the fact that Cleveland could be down its top three offensive tackles.

SATURDAY NOTES: Any consideration I had for the Browns went out with the window with Dawand Jones being ruled out. This means the Browns will be down their top three tackles against a great defense. The sharps are off the Browns, perhaps for this reason.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I was wondering if we’d see a +7 of any sort, but the best line is +6.5 -110 at Caesars and DraftKings. The sharps haven’t taken a side.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Ravens -8.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -4.5.

Computer Model: Ravens -6.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Ravens have won 25 of the last 31 meetings (Road Team has covered 17 of the last 26 non-pushes).

Lamar Jackson is 8-17 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5+, not counting Week 1.

Opening Line: Ravens -4.5.

Opening Total: 39.5.

Weather: Sunny, 51 degrees. Light wind.