2024 NFL Picks – Week 20: Redskins at Lions

The Matchup. Edge: Lions.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides were 32-35-1 in 2022, and they were 31-27 ATS in 2023. Publicly backed sides were 48-43 ATS through 18 weeks.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Chargers -3

Bills -7.5

The public went 1-1 this past week. The public is now 49-44.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Lions -9.5

The only publicly backed side at the moment is Detroit.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s some hate mail from last week:

This is super cool. We now have this new betting strategy. All you have to do is bet on the superior quarterback, and you win! It doesn’t matter who the other 52 players are, or what the spread is. The spread could be a million. Just bet the better quarterback!

Here’s another response to the Steelers pick:

I bet this guy thought he was bashing me, but I really appreciate the compliment. There were people saying I sucked four years ago, but this guy thinks I was great four years ago, which is awesome!

This one is more general hatred:

Actually, it’s not hatred at all. Clowns are beloved by everyone, unless they’re an evil, demonic clown, like the one from It. Hopefully he doesn’t think I’m that sort of clown!

And finally, here’s our boot-licker of the week:

Wow, imagine still thinking that those shots were a net positive. I think we can describe @PJ671 as a demonic, evil clown for boot-licking big pharma.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions shouldn’t have any trouble moving the ball on the Redskins. Of all the teams remaining in the playoffs, Washington has the worst run defense out of all of them. The Lions, of course, built their offense on pounding the ball with their talented running backs behind a stout offensive line.

Jahmyr Gibbs and perhaps David Montgomery will easily trample Washington’s porous ground defense. This will open up very easy opportunities for Jared Goff, who will be able to avoid Marshon Lattimore. Granted, Lattimore didn’t even play well last week, with Mike Evans beating him mercilessly, but Goff’s top receivers won’t have to deal with Lattimore at all.

Of course, I’m referring to Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta. St. Brown has a very easy matchup in the slot this week, while LaPorta has a favorable situation as well, with the Redskins being mediocre versus tight ends.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The Redskins have one glaring matchup edge on this side of the ball. That would be Jayden Daniels and his scrambling ability. The Lions are one of the worst teams when it comes to dealing with scrambling quarterbacks, and Daniels is obviously classified as such.

Daniels could run circles around Detroit’s defense. He should have some success throwing into it as well. The Lions have suffered a number of injuries to their defense, which will make it difficult to stop Terry McLaurin. Olamide Zaccheaus should also do well, given that Detroit is very weak against slot receivers.

One area that won’t work well for the Redskins is their rushing attack. Brian Robinson Jr. was ineffective last week, and he’ll once again struggle against one of the NFL’s top run defenses. The Redskins ran Robinson far too often at Tampa Bay, especially in the red zone, so they’ll once again sputter deep in enemy territory if they repeat that mistake.

RECAP: It happens once every year or two. A undeserving team makes it out of the first round of the playoffs and then gets curb stomped in Round 2. The clearest example I can come up with was the Tim Tebow-led Broncos, who defeated the Steelers and then got destroyed by the Patriots in the divisional round. More recently, the Giants, as a No. 6 seed, upset the Vikings. They were dismantled by the Eagles in the following round, 38-7.

Something similar could happen to the Redskins. They were fortunate to beat the Buccaneers – a Baker Mayfield fumble and a botched snap on the ensuing possession did in Tampa – and now they’re taking a big step up in competition.

This is something new for the Redskins this year, by the way. Save for one instance, Washington has beaten nothing but mediocre (Group C) or worse (Group D or Group F) teams this year. In fact, they’ve played only four games against Group A and B teams this year. They were blown out by the Eagles. They were losing by 14 to the Ravens before they scored a late touchdown to make the game seem closer than it really was. They lost to the Steelers at home back before Pittsburgh began imploding. And the lone victory, and the one exception referenced above, was a recent win over the Eagles – a game that saw Jalen Hurts exit in the first quarter with a concussion.

To say that the Redskins don’t have much of a resume is an understatement. By contrast, the Lions are 5-1 against Group A and Group B teams, beating the Packers (twice), Vikings (twice), and Rams, and losing only to the Bills.

However, the one wrinkle here is that Daniels is a scrambling quarterback, and Detroit has a poor history against such players. My fear with this is not a Washington upset victory, but rather a back-door cover on this high number. I’m not going to bet this game for that reason, but this matchup and spread just screams back-door cover.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Redskins.

Lots of money on the Lions.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 73% (25,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Lions.

Redskins are 23-35 ATS after a road win since 2000.

Opening Line: Lions -10.5.

Opening Total: 56.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Vegas. Edge: Lions.

Lots of money on the Lions.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 73% (25,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Lions.

Redskins are 23-35 ATS after a road win since 2000.

Opening Line: Lions -10.5.

Opening Total: 56.5.

Weather: Dome.