2024 NFL Picks – Week 20: Texans at Chiefs

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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Week 19 Analysis: We had a losing week, but a winning one if the Pick of the Month never happened, so it’s at least a positive that many of the other things were correct. I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Steelers, 8 units (loss): What the hell was this effort level from the Steelers? They showed no heart in stopping the run. They dropped passes. T.J. Watt had the worst performance of his career. Russell Wilson, with the game on the line, thought that throwing to Calvin Austin into triple coverage was a great idea. I expected a better performance from a Mike Tomlin-coached team.

Bills, 5 units (win): The Broncos were easily exposed as frauds. They had no business being in the playoffs.

Vikings, 3 units (loss): I had the Rams pegged as the right side. I then changed my mind because of the wildfires, especially after seeing the Chargers’ poor result.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: I’m going to open up with what I wrote last week: It’s astonishing that Bobby Slowik has gotten any head-coaching interviews thus far. Houston has had the most predictable offensive play-calling this year, as Slowik’s stock has dropped more than that of any assistant coach I can recall. The Texans constantly run on early downs, which is fine if they’re battling a defense that can’t stop the run. However, if they’re going up against a stout ground defense, C.J. Stroud will often get locked into third-and-long situations, resulting in some blowout losses.

While the Chargers have not stopped the run well since the end of November, the Chiefs have done very well against it. They’re not amazing against the rush, but they are ranked 10th in that category. That doesn’t give the Texans a promising outlook because if Joe Mixon is stymied, Stroud will have to deal with constant long-yardage situations. We saw this in a matchup at the end of the year where Mixon was limited to 57 rushing yards, albeit on just 14 carries.

The Chiefs can be beaten aerially. They’ve especially been terrible against No. 2 receivers and tight ends this year. Tank Dell was having a monster game against them when he suffered a brutal knee injury, causing Stroud to go into an emotional tailspin. Dell is obviously no longer around, but perhaps Dalton Schultz will perform well. Obviously, there’s also Nico Collins, though Kansas City has done well against No. 1 wideouts this year. Still, Collins is good enough to beat any matchup.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Chiefs sputtered offensively throughout the regular season, but there signs of improvement down the stretch. It actually began against the Texans because that’s when Xavier Worthy’s role began expanding, and Hollywood Brown made his return to action following a long injury hiatus. Of course, there’s also Travis Kelce, who will look to repeat what he accomplished in the playoffs last year.

The Texans have a chance of disrupting this, however, with their pass rush. Houston has one of the top edge rushes in the NFL, which is not something Patrick Mahomes wants to hear. This is because the Chiefs have had issues at tackle all year, particularly on the blind side. This is a colossal advantage for Houston.

It would help if the Texans could also stop the run. Their ground defense is a mediocre 11th, so slowing down Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt should be possible.

RECAP: I wrote this last week, but the Texans will hope to become like the 2008 Cardinals. That Arizona team, quarterbacked by Kurt Warner, won its terrible division very easily, but was miserable down the stretch. It was blown out on numerous occasions, including a 47-7 massacre at New England. This occurred in Week 16, which was followed by a win over the Seahawks in the season finale. This perhaps gave the team some confidence, which it took into the playoffs. Arizona went on to beat the Falcons, Panthers, and Eagles in the postseason before battling the Steelers down to the wire in an exciting Super Bowl.

This Houston team has plenty of similarities. It started the year off well with its talented quarterback, but collapsed down the stretch. There was also an embarrassing defeat in the penultimate game (31-2 vs. Ravens) before coming back with a victory in the finale against the Titans.

Houston went on to crush the Chargers in the wildcard round. Everyone dogged the Chargers for the result, but there’s a chance this Texans team, which has plenty of talent, is poised to make a run now that they’re playing with some sense of urgency for the first time since sweeping the Colts in the middle of the season.

With that in mind, this spread seems like it’s way too high. The Chiefs had struggled to win by margin all year, save for the final couple of weeks when they went up against a decaying Steelers team and these uninterested Texans. If you remove those two games, the Chiefs won by this margin (8+) thrice this year. They did so against the Saints, Browns, and 49ers. The San Francisco victory came against an injury-ravaged team; Jameis Winston threw a million interceptions; while Derek Carr got hurt in the fourth quarter, so the Saints couldn’t get a back-door cover.

Granted, the playoff Chiefs are superior to the regular-season Chiefs, but these Texans figure to perform better as well. And they have some positive matchups in this game, such as Collins against a troubled secondary and elite edge rushers against Kansas City’s poor tackles.

I’m once again going to back the Texans, hoping that my 2008 Cardinals narrative is correct. Again, I love some of the matchups, and I also think that this spread is heavily in our favor. The Chiefs were just -3 against the Texans at home about a month ago, and now they’re -8? How does that make sense?

Our Week 20 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Texans.

Patrick Mahomes is 98-25 SU, 65-56 ATS (51-43 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Andy Reid is 19-11 ATS off a bye.

Opening Line: Chiefs -7.5.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather:

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Slight lean on the Chiefs.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 63% (42,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Patrick Mahomes is 98-25 SU, 65-56 ATS (51-43 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Andy Reid is 19-11 ATS off a bye.

Opening Line: Chiefs -7.5.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: