2024 NFL Picks – Week 20: Rams at Eagles

The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called Dr. Cannabis, discussing the worst doctor’s visit I’ve ever had.

On a more serious note, I’m using this section to promote things from friends and readers of the Web site. If you want something promoted, shoot me an e-mail.

My friend Drew passed away five weeks ago after a battle with cancer. He was a great guy and a huge Eagles fan. He was very much into fantasy football; he was commissioner of one of my fantasy leagues for two decades. He’s survived by his wife and three young kids (ages 12, 10, 6), who will grow up without their father. If you can, please consider donating to the family to help them through this difficult time. Here’s the GoFundMe page for Drew if you’re able to give any support.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The only reason I didn’t bet on the Eagles last week was because I was worried about Jalen Hurts coming off a concussion. Quarterbacks have a very dubious history returning from concussions, and Hurts predictably struggled. It didn’t end up mattering, however, as the rest of Philadelphia’s roster dominated the injury-ravaged Packers.

Hurts should play better this week. Of course, Sam Darnold would beg to differ after his disastrous performance against the Rams, but Hurts has far better protection than Darnold, whose Christian Darrisaw-less offensive line wasn’t fully exposed until last week. The Eagles actually have outstanding blocking, so Hurts will have all the time he needs to locate his talented receivers. Hurts’ mobility will help as well; he scrambled for 39 yards against the Rams in the prior meeting.

Speaking of the prior meeting, Saquon Barkley had one of the best running back performances in NFL history against the Rams. He dashed for 255 yards and two touchdowns on 26 carries. The Rams have improved against the run since, but Barkley could still easily dominate this matchup.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: I hate that I switched my Rams-Vikings pick because of the wildfires. I loved the matchup for the Rams. Matthew Stafford figured to have such an easy time against the Vikings because Minnesota blitzes at the highest rate in the NFL. Stafford is so good against the blitz that his completion percentage is higher when blitzed as opposed to when he’s not blitzed, which is unheard of.

Unfortunately for Stafford, the Eagles do not blitz often. In fact, only four teams blitzed less frequently than the Eagles this year. The Eagles don’t need to blitz because they have such a devastating front line. They sacked Stafford five times during the Week 12 meeting.

The Eagles are also one of the top teams when it comes to stopping the run, or at least they were prior to Nakobe Dean’s injury. We’ll see how Philadelphia performs against the run without Dean. The defense will certainly be tested against Kyren Williams.

RECAP: The Rams played with so much energy on Monday night. Donning Los Angeles fire department shirts, the Rams fought hard for those affected by the Los Angeles wildfires. The Rams ripped right through the Vikings, who never stood a chance. I joked that the ’85 Bears would have lost to the Rams, given how energized they were by the circumstances.

This sort of Super Saiyan strength can only last for so long, and it’s likely that the Rams will crash and burn, for the lack of a better word. I also worry about the Rams rising up and playing out of their class. They’re a Group B team, and whenever they’ve played against a Group A team since their Super Bowl victory, they’ve fallen short, save for one instance. They lost to the Lions in the playoffs last year, and then once again to open the season. The Eagles have beaten them twice in each of the past two years. The only exception is that the Rams beat the Bills in Week 14, but Buffalo was in an obvious letdown spot after crushing the 49ers in a nationally televised snow game.

The Eagles have beaten the Rams by 17 and nine in the past two meetings, and I suspect this encounter will be a repeat of what we’ve seen when these two teams clash. Stafford had a huge edge against the Vikings because Minnesota blitzes so much. He won’t have that advantage against the Eagles, who seldom blitz.

Also, there’s a chance that this game could be played in the elements. It’s very early in the week, but there’s a 23-percent chance of rain, which is not something a dome team wants to hear.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Eagles.

The Rams are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 65% (12,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Eagles -5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: .

The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.

The Rams are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 65% (12,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

Opening Line: Eagles -5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: .