NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 20, 2024 – Late Games

Los Angeles Rams (10-7) at Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)
Line: Eagles by 6. Total: 44.
Sunday, Jan. 19, 3:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called Dr. Cannabis, discussing the worst doctor’s visit I’ve ever had.

On a more serious note, I’m using this section to promote things from friends and readers of the Web site. If you want something promoted, shoot me an e-mail.

My friend Drew passed away five weeks ago after a battle with cancer. He was a great guy and a huge Eagles fan. He was very much into fantasy football; he was commissioner of one of my fantasy leagues for two decades. He’s survived by his wife and three young kids (ages 12, 10, 6), who will grow up without their father. If you can, please consider donating to the family to help them through this difficult time. Here’s the GoFundMe page for Drew if you’re able to give any support.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The only reason I didn’t bet on the Eagles last week was because I was worried about Jalen Hurts coming off a concussion. Quarterbacks have a very dubious history returning from concussions, and Hurts predictably struggled. It didn’t end up mattering, however, as the rest of Philadelphia’s roster dominated the injury-ravaged Packers.

Hurts should play better this week. Of course, Sam Darnold would beg to differ after his disastrous performance against the Rams, but Hurts has far better protection than Darnold, whose Christian Darrisaw-less offensive line wasn’t fully exposed until last week. The Eagles actually have outstanding blocking, so Hurts will have all the time he needs to locate his talented receivers. Hurts’ mobility will help as well; he scrambled for 39 yards against the Rams in the prior meeting.

Speaking of the prior meeting, Saquon Barkley had one of the best running back performances in NFL history against the Rams. He dashed for 255 yards and two touchdowns on 26 carries. The Rams have improved against the run since, but Barkley could still easily dominate this matchup.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: I hate that I switched my Rams-Vikings pick because of the wildfires. I loved the matchup for the Rams. Matthew Stafford figured to have such an easy time against the Vikings because Minnesota blitzes at the highest rate in the NFL. Stafford is so good against the blitz that his completion percentage is higher when blitzed as opposed to when he’s not blitzed, which is unheard of.

Unfortunately for Stafford, the Eagles do not blitz often. In fact, only four teams blitzed less frequently than the Eagles this year. The Eagles don’t need to blitz because they have such a devastating front line. They sacked Stafford five times during the Week 12 meeting.

The Eagles are also one of the top teams when it comes to stopping the run, or at least they were prior to Nakobe Dean’s injury. We’ll see how Philadelphia performs against the run without Dean. The defense will certainly be tested against Kyren Williams.

RECAP: The Rams played with so much energy on Monday night. Donning Los Angeles fire department shirts, the Rams fought hard for those affected by the Los Angeles wildfires. The Rams ripped right through the Vikings, who never stood a chance. I joked that the ’85 Bears would have lost to the Rams, given how energized they were by the circumstances.

This sort of Super Saiyan strength can only last for so long, and it’s likely that the Rams will crash and burn, for the lack of a better word. I also worry about the Rams rising up and playing out of their class. They’re a Group B team, and whenever they’ve played against a Group A team since their Super Bowl victory, they’ve fallen short, save for one instance. They lost to the Lions in the playoffs last year, and then once again to open the season. The Eagles have beaten them twice in each of the past two years. The only exception is that the Rams beat the Bills in Week 14, but Buffalo was in an obvious letdown spot after crushing the 49ers in a nationally televised snow game.

The Eagles have beaten the Rams by 17 and nine in the past two meetings, and I suspect this encounter will be a repeat of what we’ve seen when these two teams clash. Stafford had a huge edge against the Vikings because Minnesota blitzes so much. He won’t have that advantage against the Eagles, who seldom blitz.

Also, there’s a chance that this game could be played in the elements. It’s very early in the week, but there’s a 23-percent chance of rain, which is not something a dome team wants to hear.

Baltimore Ravens (12-5) at Buffalo Bills (13-4)
Line: Ravens by 1. Total: 51.5.
Sunday, Jan. 10, 6:30 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

This week on CBS, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Buffalo, a city named after buffalo chicken. Mother won’t let me have buffalo chicken yet because she says it’s too spicy for someone who’s as young as me! In tonight’s game, we have the Buffalo Sabres against the Baltimore Colts. Guys, I was so close to broadcasting my Philadelphia Eagles. It was the other Sunday game. Why couldn’t it be this one? And no one better tell me the score of my Philadelphia Eagles because I recorded the game on my VCR! If someone tells me the score of my Philadelphia Eagles, I will destroy them!

Emmitt: Thanks, Leviathan. BCR are new technological that I does not understand. Same with ape track. I buyed the BCR tape and it shape like a box with string inside. And then I putted the BCR tape in the BCR. And then he play. How do he know what picture to show when the only thing in the BCR a box with string insides? I thought you has to cut out picture and Scotch tape it to the BCR but apparenty it do not worked this way! I dumbfloundered by this!

Reilly: Emmitt, you’re preaching to the choir. VCRs are a work of science, and I don’t think anyone will ever understand them. And what’s this you said, ape track? Is that something new? You’d think someone as young and hip as me would have heard about this, but I have not. What’s next, are they going to make it so you don’t need any tapes to watch something? Imagine how silly that would be.

Tollefson: Reilly, I am like you. I’m not very technologically savvy. This is why I sometimes go to Best Buy and kidnap women there. You have to make sure none of those damned blue shirts are hovering about. Just follow a woman until there’s no one in sight, slip some chloroform over her face, and BAM – you get a female slave who knows how to operate a VCR! I’m telling you, there’s nothing better than a naked woman who knows how to program a VCR.

Reilly: Tolly, tell me about it. I don’t know how to work the VCR either, so Mother takes care of it, and sometimes she does it while wearing no clothes. Speaking of women wearing no clothes, Charissa Thompson is with another foreign leader tonight! Foreign leaders are constantly joining Charissa to argue for their country hosting international games after Roger Goodell stated that he wants to double the number of international games. Charissa, take it away!



Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Mike. I’ve spoken to Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, and they’ve agreed that the winner of the MVP will be decided by a no whacking off contest, like the one they had in Seinfeld. We’re joined by a leader of some sort, but by the looks of it, I’d say he’s an American who has way too much grease in his hair. Seriously, you can wax a car with your hair. Bro, what’s the deal?

Gavin Newsom: First of all, let me address this dirty rumor. This is not grease in my hair. This is natural oil. As a snake-oil salesman, my body produces lots of oil in my hair. Second, let’s discuss the troubles in Los Angeles. We need help, people. We need donations to save those endangered in Los Angeles. Those who have felt the worst ramifications over the past couple of weeks. I’m referring to two groups: The smelt fish we diverted water to, and the rich Democrats who voted for me and other imbeciles. We need to keep diverting water to save the smelt fish at the expense of the poor people whose houses burned down, but let’s be real here, no one cares about them. But we also need to save the rich Democrats, who voted to divert the water. Because we have no water, we have quite the conundrum!

Charissa Thompson: What conundrum? Just stop saving some stupid fish. You’ll have water to put out the fire that way. Whoa, dude, I can’t believe I paid attention for once!

Gavin Newsom: See, this is the sort of bigotry we are fighting in California. How can you say the smelt fish are stupid? They are more important than any person in California, except for rich Democrats who make sure we can continue to seize power. What’s next? Are you going to say that it’s a bad idea for skinny lesbians and LGBTQ+ people to be firefighters? Ha! I can’t believe I’ve entertained questions from such a bigot!

Reilly: Gavin, I wanted to be a firefighter, but Mother said it’s too dangerous for Poopykins. But if you’re saying that skinny lesbians and trans weirdos can be firefighters, maybe I can be a firefighter, too! Who knows, maybe I’ll even be fire chief!

Kamala Harris: First, let me say this: I grew up in a middle-class family. I have been unburdened by what has been, and I will be unburdened by what will be, and what has always been. Second, I’m liking your energy, Kevin. I didn’t know you were both a fire chief and the head honcho here. Please, let’s go make love right now so I can ride you to the top of both this company and the fire station!

Joy Taylor: Get out of my way, Kamala! I’m younger than you, and I have bigger boobs. There’s no way this head honcho fire chief is going to sleep with an old hag like you when he can suck on these! Kevin, let’s get out of here so I can become the head honcho’s girl, and the fire chief’s girl!

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, someone said that they are the fire chief, which is the stupidest thing anyone has ever heard, or ever will hear, or at least that’s what I’ve been told, and it makes sense because I am the fire chief, and I’m the best fire chief who has ever existed, I’ve put out billions and billions of fires, billions and billions of fires, and I would have put out those California wildfires, and I wouldn’t have just put out those wildfires, I would have done it in no time at all, literally no time, because I would have shown up and those fires would have disappeared right away, because I’m the best there ever has been and ever will be with fires, frankly, or at least that’s what I’ve been told, and I’m so great that they call me Fireproof Don, which is a great nickname, so great that people think I created it because I’m so great with nicknames, Fireproof Don, the best fire chief there ever has been and ever will be, unlike Kamala, who is the worst fire chief in the history of fire chiefs.

Wolfley: DONALD, ON MY HOME PLANET, THERE IS A SNOWMAN WHO HAS BANANAS FOR HANDS AND A CORNCOB PIPE FOR LEGS, AND HE HAS THE DISTINCTION OF BEING THE BEST FIRE MARSHALL BECAUSE HIS COLDNESS PUTS OUT ANY FIRES RIGHT AWAY.

Reilly: Shut up, guys! New Daddy, I have a bigger conundrum than Gavin Newsom with the smell fish and the rich Democrats. Two women want to have sex with me. Do I sleep with Camel Toe Harry or the girl with big boobs? I still drink from Mother’s boobs, so it’s a bit weird. Plus, I’m a virgin in that I’ve never held a girl’s hand before except for Mother’s!

Jay Cutler: Dude…

Reilly: I know, New Daddy, I’m only 73, and a 73-year-old virgin flower at that!

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you’re talking about flowers, Kevin. Let’s discuss some flowers, Kevin. We can begin with roses, Kevin. No one will ever get you those, Kevin. What about tulips, Kevin? How about orchids, Kevin? We can transition to lillies, Kevin. Give me your thoughts on chrysanthemums, Kevin. Care to share about peonies, Kevin? Quick, give me your thoughts on carnations, Kevin. And keep in mind, Kevin, you’ll be getting none of these, Kevin.

Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS, TWO WOMEN WANT TO HAVE SEX WITH ME SO THEY CAN BECOME MISS FIRE CHIEF, SO I DON’T NEED FLOWERS, SO SUCK ON THAT, HA! We’ll be back after this!

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: What the Ravens did in the opening round of the playoffs was truly ridiculous. They barely threw the ball, and that’s not an exaggeration. They had a 13-play drive against the Steelers that featured absolutely nothing but runs. Pittsburgh’s defense was absolutely pathetic in its effort.

Based on what we saw in the Week 4 matchup between these teams, the Ravens will treat the Bills similarly. In that contest, Derrick Henry rumbled for 199 rushing yards, while Lamar Jackson scampered for 54 yards. However, things have changed for the better for Buffalo. Since Week 13, the Bills are fifth against the run, and a big part of that is the return of Matt Milano. The Pro Bowl linebacker had a rough return to action in his first couple of games, but has looked like his usual self in the past three games. Milano is an elite run-defending linebacker, so his presence in this game will ensure that the rematch has a different result.

If the Bills can live up to their No. 5 run defense ranking, Jackson will actually have to throw for a change. This will be problematic because Zay Flowers could be sidelined or limited. The Bills are also excellent at defending outside receivers, so it’s not like Flowers had a great matchup anyway.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Ravens have a glaring weakness, but it hasn’t been exploited lately. That would be their secondary, particularly cornerback. They’ve been torched at times this year, but not lately because of the dismal competition. Their opponents since their Week 14 bye have been the Steelers, Browns, Texans (disinterested with C.J. Stroud looking broken), Steelers again, and Giants. Excluding the broken Stroud, the best quarterback the Ravens have seen since Week 13 is Russell Wilson.

I don’t need to tell you that Josh Allen is a huge step up from Wilson or a broken Stroud. Allen is considered the MVP frontrunner for a reason. He was terrific last week against a tough Broncos defense, constantly picking apart Denver’s secondary. The Broncos cover better than the Ravens, so Allen shouldn’t have an issue dissecting Baltimore’s secondary.

If there’s one positive for the Ravens, it’s that they will be able to deal with Allen’s scrambling. Baltimore’s defense sees Jackson in practice every week, which would explain why the team tends to do so well against scrambling quarterbacks. Allen ran for just 21 yards in the prior meeting.

RECAP: Anyone who has been reading my picks somewhat regularly knows where I’m going with this. I’ve been calling the Ravens overrated all year. They have a very shaky secondary. Their pass protection can be exploited. And if they can’t run, they can’t function properly, especially if Flowers is out or limited.

The Ravens trampled the Steelers last week. Despite where I went with my pick, this shouldn’t have been too much of a surprise, given that the Steelers were 23rd in EPA run defense. Pittsburgh ended up having a gutless performance, which includes one of the worst games of T.J. Watt’s career. The Bills are the opposite of the Steelers in that they struggled versus ground attacks earlier in the season – as evidenced by Baltimore’s blowout win over them – but they’ve improved a lot lately. Milano’s return to action is a huge part of that.

If the Bills can hold up well against the run, it’ll be difficult for the Ravens to win this game. We know that the Bills will have much more success exploiting Baltimore’s troubled secondary than Wilson did last week. Of the two offenses, the Bills are more likely to be effective.

Despite this, we’re getting great value with the Bills. This is because there’s an inexplicable mania surrounding the Ravens. Everyone is bedazzled by Jackson and Henry, yet they ignore Baltimore’s glaring flaws. The Bills are better than the Ravens. They at least have the better resume. From the second half of the season onward, the Bills are 3-1 against Group A and Group B teams, with the only loss coming against the Rams in an obvious flat spot. The Ravens, in that same span, are 3-2 against Group A and Group B teams, but two of the wins were against the Steelers, who may not belong in Group B. If you remove the Steeler, the Ravens are just 1-1 against Group A and Group B, losing to the Eagles and beating the Chargers.