NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 20, 2024 – Early Games

Houston Texans (10-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (15-2)
Line: Chiefs by 9.5. Total: 41.5.
Saturday, Jan. 18, 4:30 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

You may have noticed the site has a new look. Yes, after nearly two decades, we’ve finally re-designed our site to be more modern. This was not done on a whim, but rather out of necessity because of what occurred during the 2023 NFL Draft. Our site crashed during the entire first day of the draft, which was disastrous for our revenue stream because we make more money during the draft than any other time. The site crashed because a line of code conflicted with the old format of the site, so we had to transition to this new look.

Because we lost so much money during the draft, I want to point out that you can really help support the site by paying for the ad-free version of it. It’s $7.99 per month, but you’ll get a super-fast site with no ads. My developer will be adding new features to paid subscribers as well, so look for that in the near future. If you don’t want to pay, please spread the word about the site through word of mouth. That would also be a big help!

Week 19 Analysis: We had a losing week, but a winning one if the Pick of the Month never happened, so it’s at least a positive that many of the other things were correct. I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Steelers, 8 units (loss): What the hell was this effort level from the Steelers? They showed no heart in stopping the run. They dropped passes. T.J. Watt had the worst performance of his career. Russell Wilson, with the game on the line, thought that throwing to Calvin Austin into triple coverage was a great idea. I expected a better performance from a Mike Tomlin-coached team.

Bills, 5 units (win): The Broncos were easily exposed as frauds. They had no business being in the playoffs.

Vikings, 3 units (loss): I had the Rams pegged as the right side. I then changed my mind because of the wildfires, especially after seeing the Chargers’ poor result.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: I’m going to open up with what I wrote last week: It’s astonishing that Bobby Slowik has gotten any head-coaching interviews thus far. Houston has had the most predictable offensive play-calling this year, as Slowik’s stock has dropped more than that of any assistant coach I can recall. The Texans constantly run on early downs, which is fine if they’re battling a defense that can’t stop the run. However, if they’re going up against a stout ground defense, C.J. Stroud will often get locked into third-and-long situations, resulting in some blowout losses.

While the Chargers have not stopped the run well since the end of November, the Chiefs have done very well against it. They’re not amazing against the rush, but they are ranked 10th in that category. That doesn’t give the Texans a promising outlook because if Joe Mixon is stymied, Stroud will have to deal with constant long-yardage situations. We saw this in a matchup at the end of the year where Mixon was limited to 57 rushing yards, albeit on just 14 carries.

The Chiefs can be beaten aerially. They’ve especially been terrible against No. 2 receivers and tight ends this year. Tank Dell was having a monster game against them when he suffered a brutal knee injury, causing Stroud to go into an emotional tailspin. Dell is obviously no longer around, but perhaps Dalton Schultz will perform well. Obviously, there’s also Nico Collins, though Kansas City has done well against No. 1 wideouts this year. Still, Collins is good enough to beat any matchup.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Chiefs sputtered offensively throughout the regular season, but there signs of improvement down the stretch. It actually began against the Texans because that’s when Xavier Worthy’s role began expanding, and Hollywood Brown made his return to action following a long injury hiatus. Of course, there’s also Travis Kelce, who will look to repeat what he accomplished in the playoffs last year.

The Texans have a chance of disrupting this, however, with their pass rush. Houston has one of the top edge rushes in the NFL, which is not something Patrick Mahomes wants to hear. This is because the Chiefs have had issues at tackle all year, particularly on the blind side. This is a colossal advantage for Houston.

It would help if the Texans could also stop the run. Their ground defense is a mediocre 11th, so slowing down Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt should be possible.

RECAP: I wrote this last week, but the Texans will hope to become like the 2008 Cardinals. That Arizona team, quarterbacked by Kurt Warner, won its terrible division very easily, but was miserable down the stretch. It was blown out on numerous occasions, including a 47-7 massacre at New England. This occurred in Week 16, which was followed by a win over the Seahawks in the season finale. This perhaps gave the team some confidence, which it took into the playoffs. Arizona went on to beat the Falcons, Panthers, and Eagles in the postseason before battling the Steelers down to the wire in an exciting Super Bowl.

This Houston team has plenty of similarities. It started the year off well with its talented quarterback, but collapsed down the stretch. There was also an embarrassing defeat in the penultimate game (31-2 vs. Ravens) before coming back with a victory in the finale against the Titans.

Houston went on to crush the Chargers in the wildcard round. Everyone dogged the Chargers for the result, but there’s a chance this Texans team, which has plenty of talent, is poised to make a run now that they’re playing with some sense of urgency for the first time since sweeping the Colts in the middle of the season.

With that in mind, this spread seems like it’s way too high. The Chiefs had struggled to win by margin all year, save for the final couple of weeks when they went up against a decaying Steelers team and these uninterested Texans. If you remove those two games, the Chiefs won by this margin (8+) thrice this year. They did so against the Saints, Browns, and 49ers. The San Francisco victory came against an injury-ravaged team; Jameis Winston threw a million interceptions; while Derek Carr got hurt in the fourth quarter, so the Saints couldn’t get a back-door cover.

Granted, the playoff Chiefs are superior to the regular-season Chiefs, but these Texans figure to perform better as well. And they have some positive matchups in this game, such as Collins against a troubled secondary and elite edge rushers against Kansas City’s poor tackles.

I’m once again going to back the Texans, hoping that my 2008 Cardinals narrative is correct. Again, I love some of the matchups, and I also think that this spread is heavily in our favor. The Chiefs were just -3 against the Texans at home about a month ago, and now they’re -8? How does that make sense?

Our Week 20 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Robert Woods is the only player who was DNP in practice both days, so there are no injuries worth noting. I will be teasing the Chiefs with the Bills because Buffalo +1.5 is available at DraftKings. It’s key to be able to tease up to +7.5 rather than +7.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: It’s the playoffs, which means Patrick Mahomes will run more often. Mahomes should be able to pick up plenty of rushing yards against a Houston team that struggles against mobile quarterbacks. The best line is over 23.5 rushing yards -113 at FanDuel.

I’m throwing the Mahomes rushing yards prop into a same-game parlay with Xavier Worthy over 53.5 receiving yards, Dalton Schultz over 38.5 receiving yards, and John Metchie over 34.5 receiving yards. The Texans are utterly awful against slot receivers, as you may have seen last week when they took on Ladd McConkey. Meanwhile, the Chiefs can’t defend tight ends and allow lots of yardage to No. 2 receivers. This $25 parlay is boosted 30 percent at FanDuel, so it pays $355.37. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Chiefs have gotten some good news with Jaylen Watson returning to help their secondary. Conversely, there’s some bad news for the Texans. Joe Mixon was DNP on Thursday. There’s some optimism that he’ll play, but if he’s out, I’m not going to bet the Texans because they’re so reliant on the run.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Joe Mixon is active, so we’re good to go with the Texans. The sharps haven’t touched this game, but Houston looks good at this inflated line. The best spread is +9.5 -110 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

Washington Redskins (12-5) at Detroit Lions (15-2)
Line: Lions by 8.5. Total: 55.5.
Saturday, Jan. 18, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Lions.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides were 32-35-1 in 2022, and they were 31-27 ATS in 2023. Publicly backed sides were 48-43 ATS through 18 weeks.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Chargers -3

Bills -7.5

The public went 1-1 this past week. The public is now 49-44.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Lions -9.5

The only publicly backed side at the moment is Detroit.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s some hate mail from last week:



This is super cool. We now have this new betting strategy. All you have to do is bet on the superior quarterback, and you win! It doesn’t matter who the other 52 players are, or what the spread is. The spread could be a million. Just bet the better quarterback!

Here’s another response to the Steelers pick:



I bet this guy thought he was bashing me, but I really appreciate the compliment. There were people saying I sucked four years ago, but this guy thinks I was great four years ago, which is awesome!

This one is more general hatred:



Actually, it’s not hatred at all. Clowns are beloved by everyone, unless they’re an evil, demonic clown, like the one from It. Hopefully he doesn’t think I’m that sort of clown!

And finally, here’s our boot-licker of the week:



Wow, imagine still thinking that those shots were a net positive. I think we can describe @PJ671 as a demonic, evil clown for boot-licking big pharma.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions shouldn’t have any trouble moving the ball on the Redskins. Of all the teams remaining in the playoffs, Washington has the worst run defense out of all of them. The Lions, of course, built their offense on pounding the ball with their talented running backs behind a stout offensive line.

Jahmyr Gibbs and perhaps David Montgomery will easily trample Washington’s porous ground defense. This will open up very easy opportunities for Jared Goff, who will be able to avoid Marshon Lattimore. Granted, Lattimore didn’t even play well last week, with Mike Evans beating him mercilessly, but Goff’s top receivers won’t have to deal with Lattimore at all.

Of course, I’m referring to Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta. St. Brown has a very easy matchup in the slot this week, while LaPorta has a favorable situation as well, with the Redskins being mediocre versus tight ends.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The Redskins have one glaring matchup edge on this side of the ball. That would be Jayden Daniels and his scrambling ability. The Lions are one of the worst teams when it comes to dealing with scrambling quarterbacks, and Daniels is obviously classified as such.

Daniels could run circles around Detroit’s defense. He should have some success throwing into it as well. The Lions have suffered a number of injuries to their defense, which will make it difficult to stop Terry McLaurin. Olamide Zaccheaus should also do well, given that Detroit is very weak against slot receivers.

One area that won’t work well for the Redskins is their rushing attack. Brian Robinson Jr. was ineffective last week, and he’ll once again struggle against one of the NFL’s top run defenses. The Redskins ran Robinson far too often at Tampa Bay, especially in the red zone, so they’ll once again sputter deep in enemy territory if they repeat that mistake.

RECAP: It happens once every year or two. A undeserving team makes it out of the first round of the playoffs and then gets curb stomped in Round 2. The clearest example I can come up with was the Tim Tebow-led Broncos, who defeated the Steelers and then got destroyed by the Patriots in the divisional round. More recently, the Giants, as a No. 6 seed, upset the Vikings. They were dismantled by the Eagles in the following round, 38-7.

Something similar could happen to the Redskins. They were fortunate to beat the Buccaneers – a Baker Mayfield fumble and a botched snap on the ensuing possession did in Tampa – and now they’re taking a big step up in competition.

This is something new for the Redskins this year, by the way. Save for one instance, Washington has beaten nothing but mediocre (Group C) or worse (Group D or Group F) teams this year. In fact, they’ve played only four games against Group A and B teams this year. They were blown out by the Eagles. They were losing by 14 to the Ravens before they scored a late touchdown to make the game seem closer than it really was. They lost to the Steelers at home back before Pittsburgh began imploding. And the lone victory, and the one exception referenced above, was a recent win over the Eagles – a game that saw Jalen Hurts exit in the first quarter with a concussion.

To say that the Redskins don’t have much of a resume is an understatement. By contrast, the Lions are 5-1 against Group A and Group B teams, beating the Packers (twice), Vikings (twice), and Rams, and losing only to the Bills.

However, the one wrinkle here is that Daniels is a scrambling quarterback, and Detroit has a poor history against such players. My fear with this is not a Washington upset victory, but rather a back-door cover on this high number. I’m not going to bet this game for that reason, but this matchup and spread just screams back-door cover.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Here’s a concern: Kevin Zeitler missed two practices with a hamstring, while Taylor Decker has also missed two practices with a personal issue. Evan on the After Dark Show made a great case for backing the Redskins. He sold me. I will bet three units on Washington.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: I love betting the overs on rushing quarterbacks in the playoffs, especially when they’re battling teams that can’t stop mobile signal-callers. That’s the case here. The best number for Jayden Daniels is over 54.5 rushing yards -113 at FanDuel.

I’m throwing in the Daniels over rushing yards into a same-game parlay with Austin Ekeler over 23.5 receiving yards, Olamide Zaccheaus over 34.5 receiving yards, and David Montgomery over 44.5 rushing yards. I expect the Redskins to be behind, so Ekeler will catch plenty of dump-off passes. Zaccheaus has a great matchup against the Lions, who can’t cover the slot. And Montgomery practiced fully this week, so I expect him to eclipse his low rushing yards total. This $25 parlay pays $282.21 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: Kevin Zeitler is out, while Taylor Decker will play. I still like the Redskins for a few units with the back-door potential.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s some sharp money coming in on the Redskins, driving this line down to +8 at some sportsbooks. You can still get +8.5 at a couple of places, including DraftKings. They have the best line at +8.5 -105. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.