2024 NFL Picks – Week 19: Other Games
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) at Baltimore Ravens (11-6)
Line: Ravens by 9.5. Total: 43.50.
Sunday, Jan. 12, 8:15 PM
The Matchup. Edge: None.
VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides were 32-35-1 in 2022, and they were 31-27 ATS in 2023. Publicly backed sides were 44-38 ATS through 16 weeks.
Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:
The public went 2-3 this past week. The public is now 48-43.
Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:
The public likes the road teams, two of which are favorites.
PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Steelers scored only 17 points in their prior visit to Baltimore, but that number is misleading for a couple of reasons. First, Russell Wilson, who went 22-of-33 for 217 yards and two touchdowns, coughed up the ball right near Baltimore’s goal line. The Steelers easily could’ve scored seven more points. And second, George Pickens wasn’t available, so Wilson’s top threat was Calvin Austin.
Pickens will be available this time, which is huge because it allows the Steelers to exploit Baltimore’s biggest weakness, which is the secondary. The Ravens have been torched by quality passing attacks all year, and that should continue in this game with Wilson locating Pickens for explosive plays.
Though the Steelers should be able to throw all over the Ravens, running won’t be much of an option. The Ravens, while inept against the pass, are very stout versus the rush.
BALTIMORE OFFENSE: If there’s one team that knows how to slow down Lamar Jackson, it’s the Steelers. Pittsburgh built its defense to combat Jackson, after all. There’s a reason why the Ravens have difficulty reaching 20 points in this rivalry. They did so in the prior meeting, but seven of those points came off a pick-six, and there was some quit for Pittsburgh toward the end when it was obvious that the team, missing Pickens, didn’t have the offensive firepower to pull the upset.
The Steelers will put forth a much greater effort in this game. That’s mostly pertaining to stopping Derrick Henry, who rumbled for 162 yards on 24 carries in the 34-17 win. The Steelers should be better against the run than that. They’ll do a better job of limiting Henry, and they’ll continue to frustrate Jackson, who managed just 22 rushing yards against Pittsburgh in that meeting.
There’s a chance that Jackson could be missing his top threat as well. Zay Flowers got hurt in the season finale when he grabbed his knee following his first catch of the afternoon. It’s unclear what his status will be at the moment.
RECAP: This spread is absurd. I know the Steelers haven’t exactly played well recently, but man, this line is completely out of control.
If you disagree, consider this: The Ravens, who have been overrated all year on the count of their poor pass defense, have played against five Group B teams this year. Those games were a loss of seven (Chiefs), win by seven (Redskins), loss by two (Steelers), win by seven (Chargers), and win by 17 (Steelers). That second Pittsburgh game was without Pickens, and it featured a Pittsburgh fumble inside the Baltimore 5-yard line and a pick-six at the end to make the score more lopsided than it really was. Thus, if you remove that contest, the Ravens haven’t beaten a Group B team by more than a touchdown all year.
If you want to argue that the Steelers are not a Group B team, that’s fine, but I’d disagree. Their defense is still top notch, while some of their losses down the stretch occurred without Pickens. They also played some tough opponents in the final four games, taking on the Eagles and Ravens without Pickens, and then the Chiefs and desperate Bengals.
Ravens-Steelers games are almost always close, and now Baltimore may be the team missing its No. 1 receiver. I think the Steelers could pull this upset, so I love them getting close to double digits.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I may make this my January NFL Pick of the Month. Zay Flowers being out would push me in that direction. Flowers was DNP on Tuesday and Wednesday.
The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Spread. Edge: Steelers.
WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Ravens -2.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.
Computer Model: Ravens -12.
DVOA Spread: .
The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.
Percentage of money on Baltimore: 51% (54,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.
Percentage of money on Baltimore: 51% (54,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: None.
Steelers +9.5 (5 Units)
Under 43.5 (0 Units)
2024 NFL Picks – Week 19: Other Games
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