2024 NFL Picks – Week 19: Broncos at Bills

The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s some hate mail from last week:

I had a bunch of hate from my NFL Power Rankings from Vikings fans. We know that Minnesotans tend to be stupid people, as evidenced by their poor voting habits, so it’s only natural that they would be just as dumb concerning their football team:

Cash the Red needs to calm down before he pops a blood vessel. Hopefully he gets the anger-management help he sorely needs.

Next one:

It’s quite delightful being called a clown show. People pay hand over fists to get clowns to perform at their kids’ birthday party. Just wait until I tell my wife that we can have a clown show for free!

I don’t think this guy thought things through:

Salibu learned an important lesson today, which is to think before you speak.

Believe it or not, there’s more:

You know what they say about Minnesotans who assume things.

Final one:

Nuk Nuk just sounds retarded. “NUK NUK ANSWER BAD GUY WHO HATE VIKING ON TWITTER. NUK NUK EAT GLUE, OOPSIE.”

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Broncos have a great defensive ranking, but things haven’t gone so well for them when they’ve battled explosive offenses. Joe Burrow ripped them apart on a recent Saturday. Justin Herbert did the same thing in a second half prior to that. And who could forget what Jameis Winston accomplished in a Monday night thriller?

Josh Allen obviously quarterbacks an explosive offense, so I imagine he’ll continue to target the weaknesses of Denver’s secondary. It’s unclear if Amari Cooper will play, but Allen can make up for it with his great mobility.

One area in which the Bills won’t have as much success is via the running backs. James Cook has an extremely difficult matchup in this game, as Denver ranks in the top five when it comes to stopping the rush.

DENVER OFFENSE: Like the Broncos, the Bills rank in the top five of run defense. In fact, the two teams are right next to each other in run defense rankings, with the Broncos and BIlls slotting in at fourth and fifth, respectively. Denver doesn’t have much of a great rushing attack anyway.

Bo Nix will have to do a lot himself in this game, which doesn’t bode well for Denver’s chances. Nix has been great in some games this year, but mostly against some of the inferior defenses. Nix has struggled in tougher matchups, getting crushed by the Ravens, for example.

This figures to be another tough spot for Nix. The Bills typically do a great job of covering outside receivers, so they’ll be able to smother Courtland Sutton and Marvin Mims. Buffalo is weaker to slot receivers and tight ends, but the Broncos don’t really attack the opposition at those positions.

RECAP: This is the most lopsided game of the opening round of the playoffs. The Bills shouldn’t have much of a problem dispatching the Broncos.

This may confuse some people because Denver may have seemed impressive to some, especially in the wake of its 38-0 victory over the Chiefs. However, if you exclude that backup-ridden game, six of Denver’s nine wins this year have come against teams rated Group D or worse. Think about that. Two-thirds of their successful results have come against bad or dreadful opponents. The three exceptions were victories over the Buccaneers, Jets, and Colts. Tampa Bay was completely distracted because it had just achieved revenge against the Lions. The Jets were also unfocused because they had a trip to London following the game. And we know what happened with Jonathan Taylor in that Indianapolis victory.

The Broncos have been outmatched against the better teams in the NFL. They’re 0-5 straight up against teams in Group B, suffering two blowout defeats. And they didn’t play against a Group A team all season. Until now.

I’m sure the argument will be made that the Bills could lose this game because they nearly did so against Skylar Thompson two years ago. However, that was a severely damaged Bills team reeling from the Damar Hamlin incident that went on to get demolished at home versus the Bengals in the following round. This Bills squad is in a much better place.

TEASER ADDED: I’m going to tease the Bills -8.5 and Rams +1.5 on DraftKings. The latter leg has to be +1.5 to get +7.5. This can be found at DraftKings for -120 vig. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Nothing has stood out on the injury report thus far, aside from Amari Cooper being listed as full. I still love the Bills.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -9.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Bills -8.

DVOA Spread: .

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 52% (54,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

Bills are 32-44 ATS in their last 76 home games vs. a team with a winning record.

Opening Line: Bills -9.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: .

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 52% (54,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.

Bills are 32-44 ATS in their last 76 home games vs. a team with a winning record.

Opening Line: Bills -9.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: .