2024 NFL Picks – Week 19: Chargers at Texans

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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Week 18 Analysis: We had a slightly losing Week 18, one that could have gone much differently. I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Colts, 5 units (push): The Colts were up by a touchdown for most of the second half, but allowed a touchdown drive when D’Ernest Johnson of all players converted a third-and-11 with a 22-yard run. The Colts had a chance to cover in overtime, but Joe Flacco, who had a horrendous game for the most part, made a horrible throw on third down in overtime.

Redskins, 3 units (loss): Where was this effort? Why did Marcus Mariota play with the sixth seed on the line?

Chargers, 3 units (win): The Chargers, unlike the Redskins, handled their Week 18 game with professionalism. They moved up in playoff seeding as a result, and this game was never in doubt after the middle of the second quarter.

Seahawks, 5 units (loss): I have to shoulder the blame on this one, though the Seahawks were still a two-point conversion away from pushing. I should have locked in a much better number earlier in the week, but my mind wasn’t right because I had the flu.

Cardinals, 3 units (win): Getting two of the three games in the late window correct was nice.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: It’s astonishing that Bobby Slowik has gotten any head-coaching interviews thus far. Houston has had the most predictable offensive play-calling this year, as Slowik’s stock has dropped more than that of any assistant coach I can recall. The Texans constantly run on early downs, which is fine if they’re battling a defense that can’t stop the run. However, if they’re going up against a stout ground defense, C.J. Stroud will often get locked into third-and-long situations, resulting in some blowout losses.

The Chargers have not stopped the run well since the end of November, which was when Denzel Perryman was lost to an injury. Perryman is a stellar run defender, so his absence has understandably made the Chargers softer against the rush. There’s a chance Perryman will be able to return, but he’s had issues returning to full health. He took the field recently, but was removed when he aggravated his injury. This could happen again if he’s deemed ready to play.

Assuming Perryman is out or hobbled, Joe Mixon figures to rip through the Chargers’ run defense. This will put Stroud into favorable down-and-distance situations. He’ll have plenty of success hooking up with Nico Collins, as the Chargers have some issues in the secondary as well.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: Perryman wasn’t the only injured player who adversely impacted the Chargers down the stretch. J.K. Dobbins’ absence was also huge because there was no semblance of a running game with Gus Edwards and Kimani Vidal handling the workload.

Unlike Perryman, Dobbins was able to return to action recently. He’s played two games since his injury, and the Chargers’ offense has been much better as a result. They should be able to move the ball on the ground against the Texans, who have not handled opposing ground attacks very well.

The strength of Houston’s defense is the edge rush. The Texans are capable of placing tons of pressure on opposing quarterbacks, so this is where Dobbins’ great running will be vital to keep Justin Herbert out of long-yardage situations. Also, the Chargers’ talented tackles will give Herbert a chance of being kept clean in the pocket.

RECAP: The Texans will hope to become like the 2008 Cardinals. That Arizona team, quarterbacked by Kurt Warner, won its terrible division very easily, but was miserable down the stretch. It was blown out on numerous occasions, including a 47-7 massacre at New England. This occurred in Week 16, which was followed by a win over the Seahawks in the season finale. This perhaps gave the team some confidence, which it took into the playoffs. Arizona went on to beat the Falcons, Panthers, and Eagles in the postseason before battling the Steelers down to the wire in an exciting Super Bowl.

This Houston team has plenty of similarities. It started the year off well with its talented quarterback, but collapsed down the stretch. There was also an embarrassing defeat in the penultimate game (31-2 vs. Ravens) before coming back with a victory in the finale against the Titans.

I think there’s a decent chance the Texans pull the upset. They have a terrific running game, which they can use against the Chargers, who have been weak against the run for the past six weeks. This will put Stroud into short-yardage situations, which will allow him to move the chains. The Chargers should be able to score as well, but this seems like more of a 50-50 game that could go either way, so I will be taking the points.

Our Week 19 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s a chance the Chargers could be without a couple of receivers. Joshua Palmer has been DNP twice with a foot, while Quentin Johnston was downgraded from limited to DNP with a thigh and illness. On the bright side, Denzel Perryman was upgraded to a full practice on Wednesday.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Texans.

Plenty of action on the Chargers.

Percentage of money on San Angeles: 73% (54,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Chargers -3.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Plenty of action on the Chargers.

Percentage of money on San Angeles: 73% (54,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Chargers -3.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Dome.