2024 NFL Picks – Week 19: Packers at Eagles

The Matchup. Edge: TBA.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called My Two Dead Uncles.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: It’s currently unclear if Jalen Hurts will be able to play in this game. Hurts entered concussion protocol during the Week 17 battle against the Redskins, but he’s still in it. He could be cleared by kickoff, but it has to be worrying for Philadelphia that he failed to exit the protocol during the idle week.

If Hurts can’t go, it’ll be either Kenny Pickett or Tanner McKee. Obviously, backup quarterbacks have done quite well for the Eagles in the playoffs over the years, and this game could add to that legacy. The Packers have issues at outside cornerback with Jaire Alexander injured, which seems like a big problem against A.J. Brown. The Packers will need to counter this with a dynamic pass rush, but it doesn’t seem like their edge players will be able to beat Philadelphia’s great tackles.

Conversely, Saquon Barkley has a difficult matchup. Though he exploded for a brilliant Week 1 performance against the Packers, Barkley has his work cut out for him in this matchup, as Green Bay has risen to third in the rush defense rankings.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Hurts isn’t the only questionable quarterback in this game. “No Cookie” Jordan Love banged his arm in the Week 18 game against the Bears and had to leave with some sort of injury. It didn’t look like he had feeling in his fingers, which would obviously be problematic with a game coming up on no rest.

Love’s arm injury isn’t the only concern the Packers have. Christian Watson was knocked out with an injury as well, so unless he makes a miraculous recovery, Green Bay won’t have its dynamic speed threat in this game. We’ve seen over the past two seasons that the Packers aren’t the same without Watson, which makes sense because they have a bunch of No. 2 receivers who can’t take the top off the ball. They will not threaten Philadelphia’s secondary.

It would be nice if the Packers would be able to turn to the run amid these injuries, but that won’t be possible. While Green Bay is third versus the rush, the Eagles rank at the very top against it. Josh Jacobs won’t have much success on the ground as a consequence.

RECAP: It’s rare when we don’t know one quarterback for a playoff matchup, but two questionable signal-callers is unheard of. And yet, that’s the position in which we’re in right now, thanks to injuries to Hurts and Love.

We’ll get some news on these quarterbacks later in the week, but any sort of seemingly positive news may not end up being so great. If Love tries to play hurt, he could be ineffective, as we’ve seen on a couple of occasions this year. And as for Hurts, quarterbacks coming off concussions have a very dubious track record of covering the spread. The fact that Hurts has been in concussion protocol for two weeks says that this concussion is serious, so it would be shocking if he were 100 percent in this game.

This may seem odd, but I’m probably going to be fading the team with the most seemingly positive quarterback news. Whichever quarterback rushes back too quickly can be faded because the other team will be giving 110 percent with its backup. And, as we very well know, one of these teams has had tremendous success with its backup quarterback in the playoffs, so it’s not like this is some sort of bizarre strategy.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Jalen Hurts and Jordan Love both practiced on a limited basis on Wednesday, so that’s a good sign that both will be available come Sunday. I still worry about them being 100 percent.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Eagles.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Eagles -6.5.

DVOA Spread: .

The Vegas. Edge: Packers.

Decent action on the Eagles.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 64% (44,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Eagles -3.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather:

The Vegas. Edge: TBA.

Decent action on the Eagles.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 64% (44,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: TBA.

Opening Line: Eagles -3.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: