2024 NFL Picks – Week 19: Redskins at Buccaneers

The Matchup. Edge: Buccaneers.

I’m using this section to promote things from friends and readers of the Web site. If you want something promoted, shoot me an e-mail.

My friend Drew passed away four weeks ago after a battle with cancer. He was a great guy and a huge Eagles fan. He was very much into fantasy football; he was commissioner of one of my fantasy leagues for two decades. He’s survived by his wife and three young kids (ages 12, 10, 6), who will grow up without their father. If you can, please consider donating to the family to help them through this difficult time. Here’s the GoFundMe page for Drew if you’re able to give any support.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Jayden Daniels’ stats from his Week 1 loss to the Buccaneers are misleading. The stats show that Daniels was 17-of-24 for 184 yards, and he rushed for 88 yards and two touchdowns, but much of that came in garbage time. Daniels had struggled to move the chains for most of the afternoon.

This result wasn’t surprising. Not only was Daniels making his first start; he was doing so against Todd Bowles, who has a history of frustrating inexperienced mobile quarterbacks. It’s been a long time since the prior matchup, but Daniels is still technically a rookie. If the Buccaneers continue to keep him in the pocket, he’ll have to do everything aerially, which is possible against Tampa Bay’s injured secondary.

Daniels will have to do it all himself because he won’t be able to lean on the running game. The Buccaneers have one of the best ground defenses in the NFL, so neither Brian Robinson Jr. nor Austin Ekeler will have much success finding running room.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: While the Redskins won’t be able to run the ball effectively, the Buccaneers will be able to do lots of damage on the ground. The Redskins have one of the weakest run defenses of all the teams in the playoffs, which is very problematic against Bucky Irving, who has been phenomenal since taking over as the primary back for Tampa Bay.

Irving will pick up big chunks of yards in this game, allowing Baker Mayfield to operate in favorable passing opportunities. The Redskins are better against the pass than the run, but it’s certainly not ideal for them to be going up against a lethal passing attack featuring Mike Evans and the surging Jalen McMillan.

The Redskins must counter this with their pass rush, but that will prove to be difficult. Mayfield is shielded well, so the Buccaneers shouldn’t have much of an issue moving the chains all night.

RECAP: The Redskins couldn’t have been happy to see the Buccaneers leapfrog the Rams for the No. 3 seed in the NFC playoffs. I’m sure they would have much rather have battled the Rams rather than Tampa Bay.

The Buccaneers shellacked the Redskins in the opener, 37-20. I’m sure it’ll be argued that this game was far too long ago, and that thee teams are different now. There’s some validity to that, and I don’t expect the rematch to be as lopsided. However, the matchup is still a very difficult one because Bowles’ defenses have been historically very stingy against mobile quarterbacks and quite overbearing versus rookie signal-callers. Daniels is no ordinary rookie, however, especially at this stage of the season, but he was dealing with leg soreness in Week 18, so if he’s not 100 percent, it’ll be more difficult for him to run around than it normally would be.

I like the Buccaneers to win this game. They should do a decent job of containing Daniels, all while successfully pounding the ball with Irving against Washington’s soft rush defense.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Nothing is standing out on the injury report, save for Jamel Dean being limited on Wednesday. I was under the impression that Dean would be out this week, so having him back would be a nice bonus for Tampa Bay.

The Motivation. Edge: .

The Spread. Edge: Buccaneers.

The Redskins are a major public dog.

Percentage of money on Washington: 80% (42,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Redskins.

Road Team is 142-100 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Redskins are 23-35 ATS after a road win since 2000.

Buccaneers are 45-75 ATS at home in the previous 120 instances.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -3.

Opening Total: 50.5.

Weather:

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

The Redskins are a major public dog.

Percentage of money on Washington: 80% (42,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.

Road Team is 142-100 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Redskins are 23-35 ATS after a road win since 2000.

Buccaneers are 45-75 ATS at home in the previous 120 instances.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -3.

Opening Total: 50.5.

Weather: