April 28, 2023
2023 NFL Draft Day 2 Preview – Ten Observations:
1. First of all, congratulations are in order for Charlie Campbell. He hit seven picks in his mock draft, but the big thing was his excellent information that allowed us to place a big wager on Jahmyr Gibbs to be chosen to the Lions. I recommended the Gibbs to Detroit match in our NFL Betting Props page. I got 18/1 at Bovada, but I saw some readers able to bet it at 20/1. In fact, Jacob Camenker alerted me that this prop was 60/1 on FanDuel! Unfortunately, NFL Draft prop betting isn’t allowed in Pennsylvania for some stupid reason. Pennsylvania is a garbage state, and I can’t wait to leave it.
Regardless, congrats to those who had success betting, as all of our props hit except for the Jalen Carter bets. Losing that sucked, but that was nothing compared to the server debacle we had during the draft. From what I understand, bad code was uploaded to the server a couple of months ago, but it didn’t affect anything until yesterday when traffic spiked. This was a horrible turn of events because a big chunk of our annual revenue comes from Draft Day. I’ll need to figure something out because we rely on draft revenue to carry us through the very low traffic days of the summer. But that’s enough of my sob story; let’s move on to other NFL Draft observations.
2. It’s amazing to me that contrary to Charlie, who is the best NFL Draft reporter in the business, there are so many terrible draft reporters out there. This is why we have so many bogus reports like “C.J. Stroud is dropping!” and “Will Levis is going No. 2!” It’s amazing how off these were, and this is not a one-time thing. Remember when Mac Jones was supposed to be the second-overall pick a couple of years ago, yet he slid all the way to No. 15?
I never bought the Levis nonsense. He has some major flaws in his game, and he couldn’t even beat out Sean Clifford at Penn State. I’ve seen some media people now making excuses for their dumb reporting by citing Levis’ injured toe, but Levis did not drop because of his toe. No one cares about his stupid toe because Levis was never a top quarterback prospect. If you combined the 2022 and 2023 classes, he would be in the same tier as Kenny Pickett and Malik Willis.
On the other hand, I’m very ashamed of myself that I bought into the Stroud stuff. I had Stroud going in the top two for a long time, but moved him out when reporters I trust were adamant that he wasn’t going to be the second-overall selection. I’m shocked they were so wrong, but then again, they may have been fed false information from teams hoping he would fall. I’m sure the Titans and Colts were spreading fake news about Stroud so he would fall into their laps.
3. As mentioned, the one draft prop we got wrong was Jalen Carter. I can tell you that the Seahawks loved him at one point, but something must have happened in the past few days to move them off Carter. Perhaps they found out that no one came to his birthday party.
Had the Seahawks chosen Carter, the rest of the top 12 would have been radically different:
Detroit Lions: The Lions would not have traded out of No. 6. They were set on Devon Witherspoon. 
Las Vegas Raiders: Paris Campbell was the Raiders’ man at No. 7. They had to pivot to Tyree Wilson. 
Atlanta Falcons: Bijan Robinson was going to be the eighth-overall pick unless Witherspoon fell to them, which was not going to happen. 
Chicago Bears: The Bears don’t pick up their extra fourth-round pick. They stay put and take Darnell Wright. 
Philadelphia Eagles: With Carter unavailable, I wonder if the Eagles still consider Nolan Smith at No. 10. The other options would be Peter Skoronski and Tyree Wilson. My money would be on Wilson, but I don’t know what the Eagles would have done. 
Tennessee Titans: This still would have been Skoronski. 
Arizona Cardinals: Poor Cardinals. Paris Johnson would be gone in this scenario, so what would Arizona have done? Believe it or not, I have good reason to believe that the Cardinals would have chosen Nolan Smith. 4. There were four primary players who slipped in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft. The first was Christian Gonzalez, who was supposed to go as high as No. 7. Instead, he dropped 10 spots to the Patriots at No. 17.
Gonzalez fell because numerous teams believed he was too soft. In fact, one NFL head coach, after watching his tape, called him the five-letter P-word that has two S’s and ends with a “Y.” However, some teams still had Gonzalez rated highly because of his great athletic ability, and there’s a good possibility that Bill Belichick will turn him into a Pro Bowler.
Speaking of Belichick, this was only the second time that I’ve ever gotten a Belichick selection correct in the first round. I would have been so happy had the Web site not been been down. This wasnt just guesswork. What I did was compile a list of potential picks for the Patriots and then eliminate anyone with whom they had a top-30 visit or workout. Gonzalez seemed like the most likely target, so that’s why I mocked him to them.
5. Along with Gonzalez, the other three prospects who plummeted in the first round were Levis, Nolan Smith, and Joey Porter Jr. We’ve already discussed Levis. Smith’s fall was a bit funny to me because I spent many videos on the WalterFootball.com After Dark Show talking about how I always mocked Smith in the 20s because I had a mental block when it came to placing him early in my mock draft. I finally got over that late, and yet it turned out to be a mistake.
We’re going to have more answers when Charlie posts his legendary Why the Slide series and gets to why Smith fell. However, in the meantime, I think it’s worth noting that Smith was slotted in the second round before he blew up the combine. Perhaps he went in the correct range after all.
As for Porter, he could easily be chosen atop the second round, and we’ll quickly forget about how he slipped out of Thursday night. If, however, he continues to fall into the middle of the second frame, he’ll be another entry I’ll eagerly await in the Why the Slide series.
6. Speaking of Porter, I have him going to the Steelers to begin the 2023 NFL Mock Draft Round 2 Re-Draft. In my original mock, I had him going to the Steelers at No. 17 overall. I loved the fit, and Porter filled an obvious need.
Instead, the Steelers selected Broderick Jones after moving up three spots. I thought that was a fascinating pick because it could make or break the Steelers’ fortunes over the next several years. Pittsburgh is on the cusp of being a perennial playoff contender despite being in a tough conference. They have a great defense when everyone’s healthy – they were 8-2 when T.J. Watt was on the field last year – and they also possess some terrific play-makers like George Pickens, Najee Harris, Dionte Johnson, and Pat Freiermuth.
However, it all comes down to Kenny Pickett’s development. Pickett had some bright moments as a rookie, but also had some rough patches. If his pass protection improves as a result of Jones’ presence on the blind side, he could take the next step and lead the Steelers deep into the playoffs in the near future. Conversely, if Jones, who has a low floor, struggles, this current iteration of the Steelers may never reach their potential.
7. The Steelers jumped ahead of the Jets for Jones, causing the Jets to be caught with their pants down when they were on the clock at No. 15. The Jets’ plans with the 15th pick were, in order: Darnell Wright, Peter Skoronski, and Broderick Jones. They went off the board at 10, 11, and 14. And thanks to Charlie, we learned that the Jets had a plan D. That was Jahmyr Gibbs, whom the Lions scooped at No. 12.
So, the Jets had no Plan E, and that was evident when they spent nearly all the time on the clock for their selection. They almost certainly were calling other teams, begging to trade out, but they found no takers. Thus, they settled on Will McDonald, whom they could have chosen 10 selections later.
This was a devastating turn of events for the Jets. Had they not swapped picks with the Packers, they would have gotten their third preferred option. I thought it was a huge mistake to relinquish next year’s first-round pick for Rodgers, but it turns out that moving back from 13 to 15 was a grave error as well.
8. The Jets were the losers of the first round, but what about the winners? I say this almost every year, but the adage still applies: “Dumb teams make dumb picks.” This allows the smart teams to land great players, and that happened once again on Thursday. So many teams in the teens and 20s reached for players, allowing the Ravens, Bills and Eagles to land Zay Flowers, Dalton Kincaid, and Nolan Smith, respectively.
Speaking of the Eagles, they were the No. 1 winners of the first round. Has a top Super Bowl contender ever improved so much in the opening round of an NFL Draft? I can’t ever recall something like this, but if you can, please let me know.
9. The other Super Bowl contender with two first-round picks didn’t do as well, but still had a solid draft. The Lions won’t be praised by the media, but I think they definitely upgraded their roster to improve their chances of making a deep playoff run.
Some would say Gibbs was a reach, but as I indicated earlier, he was an option for the Jets at No. 15 if all the offensive tackles were off the board, which turned out to be the case. As for Jack Campbell, the Lions could have traded down a bit, but they wouldn’t have been able to go too far. The Giants would have snatched Campbell off the board had he made it to No. 25.
Both Gibbs and Campbell should be opening-week starters for the Lions. Gibbs is an electric player with Alvin Kamara- and Jamaal Charles-type upside. Campbell, meanwhile, will fill a huge need at linebacker. He’s a plug-and-play prospect who will be a solid player in his first year. He may not have insane upside, but he’ll definitely improve the defense right away.
10. Something I mentioned throughout the pre-draft process was that the four first-round receivers could go in any order, and we saw that unfold when they went in consecutive order from 20 to 23. I thought the run on the wideouts was hilarious. It reminded me of fantasy drafts when one person takes a tight end, which sparks the next three or four fantasy owners to also draft tight ends because of FOMO.
This receiver class wasn’t as good as last year’s, but I still liked it. The Seahawks landed the top wideout, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, despite the possibility of him going as early as No. 12 when Houston still had the pick. Had Smith-Njigba been off the board, the Seahawks would have chosen Zay Flowers, who ended up going to the Ravens. I mocked Flowers often to Baltimore, as the Ravens telegraphed the interest in him. I eventually moved off Flowers to Baltimore because I thought Flowers would come off the board at No. 20, but Flowers fell into the Ravens’ lap because Smith-Njigba also slipped. Mock drafting is hard!
As for the other two receiver picks, the Chargers love their tall receivers, so it wasn’t a surprise that they opted for the biggest of the quartet. Jordan Addison, meanwhile, was an obvious choice for the Vikings once their media mouthpieces began praising him prior to the NFL Draft. Regardless, Addison was a great pick for a team that was desperate for receiving help.
Fantasy Football Perspective:
For a fantasy football perspective, there were 10 players chosen in the first round, compared to seven last year. Here they are, ordered by dynasty value:
- Bijan Robinson, RB, Falcons
- Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Lions
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seahwks
- Quentin Johnston, WR, Chargers
- Jordan Addison, WR, Vikings
- Zay Flowers, WR, Seahawks
- Bryce Young, QB, Panthers
- C.J. Stroud, QB, Texans
- Anthony Richardson, QB, Colts
- Dalton Kincaid, TE, Bills
The two running backs are obviously the best options, as both were considered top-five prospects in the 2023 NFL Draft class. After that, it’s a bit trickier. Jaxon Smith-Njigba isn’t the top receiver in 2023 because he’ll be the third receiver in his first year, but he’s the best choice for the long haul because of his supreme talent. Johnston is next, as he’ll be playing with Justin Herbert. Addison is the best option for 2023 because he’ll be the No. 2 wideout. As for Flowers, I love him as a draft prospect, but the Ravens have a run-first offense.
All three quarterbacks are solid dynasty players because of their great rushing ability. Richardson is the best runner of the trio, but he also has the lowest floor.
As for Kincaid, I’d like him more if he were the only viable tight end in Buffalo’s offense. However, he’ll be sharing targets with Dawson Knox, so he won’t be an exciting fantasy player until that changes.
I’ll have updated 2023 Fantasy Football Rankings following the NFL Draft.
Best Players Available for Day 2:
My top-30 available players for the second round (with links to their scouting reports):
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Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State
Brian Branch, CB/S, Alabama
Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
Jalin Hyatt, WR, Tennessee
Keion White, DE, Georgia Tech
Adetomiwa Adebawore, DE/DT, Northwestern
O’Cyrus Torrence, G, Florida
Joe Tippman, C/G, Wisconsin
John Michael Schmitz, C, Minnesota
Keeanu Benton, DT, Wisconsin
Matthew Bergeron, OT/G, Syracuse
Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia
Dawand Jones, OT, Ohio State
Gervon Dexter, DT, Florida
Trenton Simpson, LB, Clemson
Drew Sanders, LB, Arkansas
Tuli Tuipulotu, DE, USC
Cam Smith, CB, South Carolina
Sam LaPorta, TE, Iowa
Tyler Steen, OT/G, Alabama
Jonathan Mingo, WR, Ole Miss
Kendre Miller, RB, TCU
Steve Avila, C/G, TCU
Derick Hall, DE, Auburn
Quan Martin, CB/S, Illinois
Luke Musgrave, TE, Oregon State
Hendon Hooker, QB, Tennessee
Jaelyn Duncan, OT, Maryland
Daiyan Henley, LB, Washington State
Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
2023 NFL Draft Mailbag:
Will be posted later today!
From Paul C.
How far do you think Levis will fall? Clearly nobody wanted him enough to move up to 31 because I refuse to believe KC couldn’t have got Felix half a dozen picks later.
–> I think he could fall into the middle of the second round before someone takes a chance on him. He has big upside, but I had him falling out of the first round of my mock draft for a reason. No team we talked to liked him very much. In fact, some teams had Hendon Hooker rated over him.
From Jeremy W.
49ers aren’t likely to stay pat with 11 picks so there should be a trade up. Who would be a good candidate, I personally think Michael Mayer or Sam LaPorta if they slide because Shanahan loves two tight end sets and they can contribute immediately.
–> I like the tight end idea. The 49ers hosted a bunch of tight ends prior to the draft. They also had lots of offensive linemen in for visits. I wouldn’t be surprised if they moved up for someone like Tyler Steen or Jaelyn Duncan.
From Tim H.
How will Howie Roseman completely own the second round the way he did the first?
–> Dumb teams make dumb picks, so a talented player will probably fall to the Eagles at 62. Someone like O’Cyrus Torrence, Matthew Bergeron, or Zach Charbonnet. I guess you can’t count out Kelee Ringo if we’re sticking with the Georgia theme.
From Chuck L.
Are Jalen Carter and Stacey Abrams the same person?
–> LOL. Hilariously, they’d both like to challenge the results after Carter dropped to nine and Abrams lost Georgia.
From Harley S.
Is your site going to work today?
–> I have no idea. Honestly, no clue. Fingers crossed.
From Kevin J.
Browns to take OLine as first pick is +2800. It almost seems like an error at DK. You stated they hosted more lineman. Do you either of you have anyone at CLE to see if +2800 would be the bet of a life time lol
–> Those sound like great odds. I wouldn’t go nuts with it because the second day is way more unpredictable than the first, but I would bet it if Pennsylvania would allow it. Pennsylvania sucks, don’t ever move here.
From Kevin J.
Also Rams first pick OLine is +400 which you said Charlie got word Rams want OL?
–> I just asked Charlie, and it was a second-hand recommendation so we’re not super confident in it, but it makes sense
From Tarif C.
What the likelihood of eagles trading for Deandre Swift today with Detroit picking Gibbs?
–> I’d be all for it if the Eagles don’t have to give up much. The downside is that they’ll have two very injury-prone running backs on the roster in Swift and Rashaad Penny, so it would be very risky.
From Bryan B.
Any news on why Joey Porter Jr drop out of the first round?
–> I don’t think it’s that much of a drop. Some mock drafts had Porter going in the mid-20s. Now, if Porter falls to the middle of the second round, you can call it a drop. If that happens, Charlie will be on top of it in his Why the Slide series.
From Ray:
Does your damn website work yet? Or still frozen with crappy ad issues?
–> Believe it or not, the ads were the only thing not wrong with the site last night.
From Bagley:
Do you think the Jets regret switching first round picks with the Packers, which caused them to miss out on Broderick Jones and reach for a day 2 prospect instead?
–> I’d have to think so. Their top four options, all of whom were realistic (i.e. no Will Anderson) went off the board, and so they had to reach for a second-round prospect. Joe Douglas did a poor job of negotiating in the Aaron Rodgers trade.
From John S.
Have you ever seen a #2 betting favorite on a Monday before the draft not go in the first round? Why the slide?
–> I don’t think so. It reminded me of Mac Jones, who was expected to go No. 2 to the 49ers, fall to the Patriots at 15, but this was way worse. That said, I had Levis in the second round of the final version of my mock draft, so I’m not surprised at all. Teams just didn’t like Levis. He has poor accuracy and touch, and unlike Anthony Richardson, he can’t run a 4.4 to bail himself out of bad situations.
From Nate K.
What’s the most surprising fall? Most surprising pick?
–> Nolan Smith falling was shocking, unlike Levis’ drop. I think the Eagles and Cardinals were even considering him at 10 and 12, respectively. I don’t know why so many teams passed on him. The most surprising pick was the Seahawks drafting Devon Witherspoon. They seemed set on Jalen Carter, so something must have changed in the final 24-48 hours. The Seahawks are great at drafting corners in the middle or late rounds, so I don’t get why they ruined their tremendous leverage.
From Wilson:
Is Hooker still a viable option for LV in round 2 with Levis likely available?
–> Yeah, for sure. Some teams have Hendon Hooker rated above Levis, and I do too, for what it’s worth.
From New Orleans Saints UK:
Who do you think the #saints like on day 2?
–> An edge rusher like Keion White. They wanted Myles Murphy at No. 29. White is a similar prospect.
From Bob:
Why are you and Charlie mocking Dawand Jones to the Rams when their best most consistent lineman is a RT in Rob Havenstein?
–> It’s a second-hand recommendation from someone who used to work for the Rams very recently.
From Chad G:
Did the Texans trade too much for Anderson? Could have gotten Jalen Carter a half dozen picks later and saved at least a second round pick.
–> That’s true, although as one quarterback once said, hindsight is 50/50. Still, the Texans had so many resources, so they could afford to trade some of them for Will Anderson. Besides, think about it this way: Had they taken Anderson at No. 2 and then given up those assets for C.J. Stroud, no one would have said anything negative about that. They basically did the same thing, just in reverse order because someone else may have moved up to No. 3. I can’t believe I’m saying this, but what the Texans did was brilliant.
From Glizzy:
What bets do you like for day two?
–> I just posted a couple of bets on the NFL Betting Props page!
From Paul Pierce Investments:
Good day 2 tackles available for Chiefs?
–> Tyler Steen, Dawand Jones and Jaelyn Duncan, though I wouldn’t count out a guard like O’Cyrus Torrence. The Chiefs believe they can move Joe Thuney out to tackle if needed.
From Mikey:
Which veterans can you see getting traded today if not in the near future? D.Swift? Wr M.Williams? T.Lance? GB lb Pr.Smith, other?
–> I’d be shocked if Swift isn’t traded at some point in the near future. I also think DeAndre Hopkins could be on the move.
From Mikey:
Do you think Drew Sanders would be a good fit for the Buffalo Bills defense?
–> Yes. He’s a raw, but versatile linebacker who can play all over the field for the Bills. I think the Jets may like him.
From Mikey:
Thoughts on the Bills draft pick TE Dalton Kincaid? Do you think he has the ability to be one of the top TEs in the NFL?
–> Yes, he’s super athletic and has tremendous upside. He’s going to make Josh Allen better in the red zone.
From Christian:
Are you doing more prop bets for 2nd 3rd rounds? Interested on your thoughts on the next RB drafted
–> As mentioned earlier, we have two on the NFL Betting Props page. As for the first running back, I think it’ll be Zach Charbonnet and Kendre Miller. I think the Lions would be all over Miller in the second round had they not drafted Jahmyr Gibbs.
From Wiseguy:
Why do you think the giants didn’t draft a receiver? Danny Dimes can take all the help he can get and it seems like they are letting him down again?
–> It’s important not to reach, and the Giants did not do that. They wanted any of the top four receivers, and I assume they tried to trade up. They’ll try to get a receiver on Day 2.
From John Y:
Does every other team in the league have futures on the Eagles winning the SB? How in the world did they leave day 1 with Carter and Smith.
–> You’d think so! There are people working in the NFL who bet, so this might actually be the case.
2024 NFL Mock Draft - April 23
NFL Power Rankings - Feb. 22
Fantasy Football Rankings - Feb. 19
NFL Picks - Feb. 12
