The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

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MIAMI OFFENSE: Tua Tagovailoa has had some ugly games this year, but he wasn’t completely at fault for the Dolphins’ blowout loss to the Ravens. There were some mistakes by his skill players and some miscommunications.

Tagovailoa performed well against the Bills on a Thursday night back in Week 3, but it’s worth noting that he did this with Tyreek Hill. With both Hill and Darren Waller sidelined, Tagovailoa doesn’t have much at his disposal. There’s Jaylen Waddle, but the Bills have some talented cornerbacks to limit him. The Bills also have an improved pass rush that will be able to rattle Tagovailoa in the pocket.

The Dolphins’ best chance of moving the chains consistently is via the run. The Bills haven’t been strong against the run because Matt Milano missed extensive time. Milano made his return to action last week, but only played about half the snaps. Milano is usually slow to return to form, so I don’t expect him to be 100 percent just yet. Also, the Bills are missing their two starting defensive tackles, so this is something Miami must exploit.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: Of course, there are going to be plenty of opportunities for Josh Allen and the Bills offense to exploit what the Dolphins have going on defensively. Miami already had one of the worst-ranked defenses in the NFL, and it’ll now be operating without Jaelan Phillips, who had nearly a quarter of the team’s pressures.

Allen will have even more time than usual to locate his weapons. He can also scramble for big gains against a Miami defense that has had issues with mobile quarterbacks. The Dolphins are better against rushing attacks, ranking 17th in that regard, but we know James Cook can exploit this matchup because he’s done so already.

RECAP: There’s a huge talent disparity between these teams. Of course, we already knew that from the spread, but I don’t think the spread is high enough to account for that discrepancy. I believe the line should be above -10 and upwards toward -14. I made the line -12.5.

I love fading these Group F teams, but I don’t think I can bring myself to bet the Bills in this situation. It’s a tough one because they’re coming off a huge win against the Chiefs. They’re also battling a team they’ve already beaten earlier in the season. The Bills are just 2-2 against the spread following regular-season wins against the Chiefs, so they could cover, but this is just a bad spot.

There are plenty of other good betting opportunities this week, so i think we can move on and refrain from wagering on a poor spot or a horrible team.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: If you’re interested in longform discussions about the NFL, Andy Iskoe and I had a 3-hour conversation about the Week 10 NFL Picks. We spent a lot of time talking about the motivation, or rather the urgency of the Bills in this game:

SATURDAY NOTES: The Bills might be getting DaQuan Jones back from injury, but they have two top cornerbacks – Christian Benford, Taron Johnson – who are both questionable after missing one practice each this week. Meanwhile, the Dolphins will be without their top cornerback, Rasul Douglas, as well as their best edge rusher, Jaelan Phillips, who was traded to the Eagles. I still have no strong opinion on this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps pounded the Dolphins on Sunday morning. Perhaps that’s because of Buffalo’s many injuries. The Bills will be missing two top cornerbacks (Christian Benford, Taron Johnson), as well as A.J. Epenesa and Shaq Thompson (not to mention Ed Oliver, who is on injured reserve.) If you still like the Bills, you can get them at -8 -103 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Dolphins.

The Bills are coming off a win versus the Chiefs.

The Spread. Edge: Bills.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -12.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bills -8.5.

Computer Model: Bills -7.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 88% (102,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.

History: Bills have won 20 of the last 25 meetings.

Opening Line: Bills -8.5.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 86 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

We have a new section on the site! we have a place for WalterFootball.com Video Content. We’ll be releasing short videos (8-20 minutes) on this page, with a new video each day. It’ll be a quick way to get NFL picks, fantasy football, and NFL Draft content.

MIAMI OFFENSE: Tua Tagovailoa has had some ugly games this year, but he wasn’t completely at fault for the Dolphins’ blowout loss to the Ravens. There were some mistakes by his skill players and some miscommunications.

Tagovailoa performed well against the Bills on a Thursday night back in Week 3, but it’s worth noting that he did this with Tyreek Hill. With both Hill and Darren Waller sidelined, Tagovailoa doesn’t have much at his disposal. There’s Jaylen Waddle, but the Bills have some talented cornerbacks to limit him. The Bills also have an improved pass rush that will be able to rattle Tagovailoa in the pocket.

The Dolphins’ best chance of moving the chains consistently is via the run. The Bills haven’t been strong against the run because Matt Milano missed extensive time. Milano made his return to action last week, but only played about half the snaps. Milano is usually slow to return to form, so I don’t expect him to be 100 percent just yet. Also, the Bills are missing their two starting defensive tackles, so this is something Miami must exploit.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: Of course, there are going to be plenty of opportunities for Josh Allen and the Bills offense to exploit what the Dolphins have going on defensively. Miami already had one of the worst-ranked defenses in the NFL, and it’ll now be operating without Jaelan Phillips, who had nearly a quarter of the team’s pressures.

Allen will have even more time than usual to locate his weapons. He can also scramble for big gains against a Miami defense that has had issues with mobile quarterbacks. The Dolphins are better against rushing attacks, ranking 17th in that regard, but we know James Cook can exploit this matchup because he’s done so already.

RECAP: There’s a huge talent disparity between these teams. Of course, we already knew that from the spread, but I don’t think the spread is high enough to account for that discrepancy. I believe the line should be above -10 and upwards toward -14. I made the line -12.5.

I love fading these Group F teams, but I don’t think I can bring myself to bet the Bills in this situation. It’s a tough one because they’re coming off a huge win against the Chiefs. They’re also battling a team they’ve already beaten earlier in the season. The Bills are just 2-2 against the spread following regular-season wins against the Chiefs, so they could cover, but this is just a bad spot.

There are plenty of other good betting opportunities this week, so i think we can move on and refrain from wagering on a poor spot or a horrible team.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: If you’re interested in longform discussions about the NFL, Andy Iskoe and I had a 3-hour conversation about the Week 10 NFL Picks. We spent a lot of time talking about the motivation, or rather the urgency of the Bills in this game:

SATURDAY NOTES: The Bills might be getting DaQuan Jones back from injury, but they have two top cornerbacks – Christian Benford, Taron Johnson – who are both questionable after missing one practice each this week. Meanwhile, the Dolphins will be without their top cornerback, Rasul Douglas, as well as their best edge rusher, Jaelan Phillips, who was traded to the Eagles. I still have no strong opinion on this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps pounded the Dolphins on Sunday morning. Perhaps that’s because of Buffalo’s many injuries. The Bills will be missing two top cornerbacks (Christian Benford, Taron Johnson), as well as A.J. Epenesa and Shaq Thompson (not to mention Ed Oliver, who is on injured reserve.) If you still like the Bills, you can get them at -8 -103 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Dolphins.

The Bills are coming off a win versus the Chiefs.

The Spread. Edge: Bills.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -12.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bills -8.5.

Computer Model: Bills -7.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 88% (102,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.

History: Bills have won 20 of the last 25 meetings.

Opening Line: Bills -8.5.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 86 degrees. Light wind.