The Matchup. Edge: Broncos.

You may have noticed the site has a new look. Yes, after nearly two decades, we’ve finally re-designed our site to be more modern. This was not done on a whim, but rather out of necessity because of what occurred during the 2023 NFL Draft. Our site crashed during the entire first day of the draft, which was disastrous for our revenue stream because we make more money during the draft than any other time. The site crashed because a line of code conflicted with the old format of the site, so we had to transition to this new look.

Because we lost so much money during the draft, I want to point out that you can really help support the site by paying for the ad-free version of it. It’s $7.99 per month, but you’ll get a super-fast site with no ads. My developer will be adding new features to paid subscribers as well, so look for that in the near future. If you don’t want to pay, please spread the word about the site through word of mouth. That would also be a big help!

Week 9 Analysis: I thought last Sunday was frustrating. This Sunday, we had this go against us:

And that was before the Bengals onside kick recovery!

Not one special teams gaffe went our way. Not one, unless you want to count Ka’imi Fairbairn’s missed 53-yard field goal, but that was a long kick, and I’d never count a missed kick from 50-plus as bad luck for us.

I would really like to know what we’ve done to earn such horrible luck. It’s insane that we’ve had no breaks go our way concerning picks of four or more units this year. We caught one break in the Jets’ cover versus the Buccaneers in Week 3, and that was it for three-unit selections heading into Week 9. The fact that we’re not down 20-plus units despite all of our bad luck is saying that we’re handicapping most of the games at least somewhat well.

I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Bears, 3 units (win): I was losing my mind when the Bears surrendered an onside kick recovery, prompting the Bengals to complete a 14-point comeback in a few minutes. Thankfully, the Bears somehow ended up covering.

Patriots, 3 units (win): This one was in doubt for a while, but the Falcons came back and nearly won. That’s now two missed kicks for Atlanta to prevent possible victories.

Packers, 4 units (loss): One of two horrible picks I made last week. I shouldn’t have ignored that the Packers were coming off a big win and had the Eagles coming up on the following Monday night.

Lions, 3 units (loss): This is not the second horrible pick, as the injury bug bit us hard. The Lions lost three offensive linemen to injury in this game, including both of their tackles.

Broncos, 3 units (win): The Broncos were able to benefit from C.J. Stroud’s injury. Is that lucky? Perhaps, but we’ve seen Stroud really struggle against top defenses all year. I don’t think the Texans would have won this game with Stroud, but in fairness, I would have complained about it had I selected Houston.

Chargers, 5 units (loss): In addition to the punt return listed above, Justin Herbert also threw a pick-six, and then Joe Alt got injured. Of the two quarterbacks to throw a pick-six in this game, it had to be Herbert? Cam Ward couldn’t give the Chargers a turnover? Really?

Redskins, 3 units (loss): The second horrible pick, and perhaps the worst selection I made all year. I ignored the obvious signs that the Redskins were a complete mess.

DENVER OFFENSE: Denver’s win over the Texans wasn’t the first time this year that Bo Nix struggled for most of the game, only to come through in the clutch to win at the very end. It’s unclear why Nix didn’t utilize his legs more earlier in the game, but he had two key scrambles to defeat Houston at the very end.

Nix shouldn’t have any issues in this matchup. The Raiders have a dreadful defense that can’t do anything well. Maxx Crosby is healthy again, and yet the Raiders still have one of the worst pressure rates in the NFL despite his presence. Nix didn’t have any time in the pocket last week against the Texans, but that will change in this matchup. As a result, Nix will have his way against Las Vegas’ poor secondary.

The Broncos will be able to run the ball effectively, too. The Raiders looked completely helpless to contain Travis Etienne and Bhayshul Tuten at the end of last week’s game. This was not a surprise, given that the Raiders are 21st against ground attacks.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: Andy Iskoe, a professional handicapper since 1990, said on our Wednesday show that the Raiders offensive line is the worst he’s ever seen. That’s saying a lot, though the Raiders did hold up well versus Jacksonville. The Jaguars are in the middle of the pack in pressure rate, so this wasn’t too shocking of a result, but still, a bit surprising.

It would be absolutely unbelievable if the Raiders were able to keep Denver’s pass rushers out of the backfield. The Broncos lead in the NFL in pressures – check out the NFL Pressure Rates via the link – so it doesn’t seem possible that the Raiders will give Geno Smith ample time to find his mediocre receivers against Denver’s secondary. Patrick Surtain will continue to be sidelined, but I don’t think it’ll matter because Smith will be on his back the entire night. Plus, Jakobi Meyers was just traded. Check out my NFL Trade Grades page for more.

The Raiders won’t be able to run the ball either. Ashton Jeanty is the league leader in yards before contract, so his misfortune will continue. The Broncos aren’t amazing against the run, but their 11th ranking in that regard will stymie Jeanty. And with Meyers gone, the Broncos will be able to play closer to the line of scrimmage.

RECAP: My rule for Thursdays is to back the better team as long as they’re focused. The thinking is that the inferior team doesn’t have enough preparation time to formulate a good game plan against the superior foe.

The Broncos are obviously better than the Raiders. They also match up extremely well against them. How will the Raiders’ atrocious offensive line handle the Denver pass rush? With Meyers gone, who, besides Brock Bowers, will get open? And how will Las Vegas’ defense stop anything?

Also, consider that the Raiders will be exhausted because they just had an overtime affair that went the whole 10 minutes. This is a horrible spot for any squad; teams playing on Thursdays after an overtime game are 6-25 against the spread dating all the way back to 2002. Thanks to Charles B. for the reminder!

Our Week 10 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There are no major injuries on the report for this game, so this pick will remain a four-unit selection on the Broncos.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: BetMGM has a $20 no-sweat bet, so we’ll use that for our player prop. We’re going with Michael Mayer over receptions because he’s being used much more recently, and that usage will continue to rise because of the Jakobi Meyers trade. The best number is over 2.5 receptions +100 at BetMGM.

Our same-game parlay will be built at DraftKings because it has a 30-percent boost for this game. We’re going with Mayer over 2.5 receptions, Ashton Jeanty over 2.5 receptions, and Evan Engram over 3.5 receptions. This $25 parlay pays $162.50. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps haven’t touched this game, which is a bit of a surprise. I still love Denver. The best number is -8.5 -103 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Broncos.

The Raiders will be exhausted off a full overtime.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Broncos -9.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Broncos -9.5.

Computer Model: Broncos -6.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.

Decent lean on the Broncos.

Percentage of money on Denver: 67% (227,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

History: Raiders have won 8 of the previous 10 meetings.

Opening Line: Broncos -9.5.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Clear, 54 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Broncos.

You may have noticed the site has a new look. Yes, after nearly two decades, we’ve finally re-designed our site to be more modern. This was not done on a whim, but rather out of necessity because of what occurred during the 2023 NFL Draft. Our site crashed during the entire first day of the draft, which was disastrous for our revenue stream because we make more money during the draft than any other time. The site crashed because a line of code conflicted with the old format of the site, so we had to transition to this new look.

Because we lost so much money during the draft, I want to point out that you can really help support the site by paying for the ad-free version of it. It’s $7.99 per month, but you’ll get a super-fast site with no ads. My developer will be adding new features to paid subscribers as well, so look for that in the near future. If you don’t want to pay, please spread the word about the site through word of mouth. That would also be a big help!

Week 9 Analysis: I thought last Sunday was frustrating. This Sunday, we had this go against us:

And that was before the Bengals onside kick recovery!

Not one special teams gaffe went our way. Not one, unless you want to count Ka’imi Fairbairn’s missed 53-yard field goal, but that was a long kick, and I’d never count a missed kick from 50-plus as bad luck for us.

I would really like to know what we’ve done to earn such horrible luck. It’s insane that we’ve had no breaks go our way concerning picks of four or more units this year. We caught one break in the Jets’ cover versus the Buccaneers in Week 3, and that was it for three-unit selections heading into Week 9. The fact that we’re not down 20-plus units despite all of our bad luck is saying that we’re handicapping most of the games at least somewhat well.

I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Bears, 3 units (win): I was losing my mind when the Bears surrendered an onside kick recovery, prompting the Bengals to complete a 14-point comeback in a few minutes. Thankfully, the Bears somehow ended up covering.

Patriots, 3 units (win): This one was in doubt for a while, but the Falcons came back and nearly won. That’s now two missed kicks for Atlanta to prevent possible victories.

Packers, 4 units (loss): One of two horrible picks I made last week. I shouldn’t have ignored that the Packers were coming off a big win and had the Eagles coming up on the following Monday night.

Lions, 3 units (loss): This is not the second horrible pick, as the injury bug bit us hard. The Lions lost three offensive linemen to injury in this game, including both of their tackles.

Broncos, 3 units (win): The Broncos were able to benefit from C.J. Stroud’s injury. Is that lucky? Perhaps, but we’ve seen Stroud really struggle against top defenses all year. I don’t think the Texans would have won this game with Stroud, but in fairness, I would have complained about it had I selected Houston.

Chargers, 5 units (loss): In addition to the punt return listed above, Justin Herbert also threw a pick-six, and then Joe Alt got injured. Of the two quarterbacks to throw a pick-six in this game, it had to be Herbert? Cam Ward couldn’t give the Chargers a turnover? Really?

Redskins, 3 units (loss): The second horrible pick, and perhaps the worst selection I made all year. I ignored the obvious signs that the Redskins were a complete mess.

DENVER OFFENSE: Denver’s win over the Texans wasn’t the first time this year that Bo Nix struggled for most of the game, only to come through in the clutch to win at the very end. It’s unclear why Nix didn’t utilize his legs more earlier in the game, but he had two key scrambles to defeat Houston at the very end.

Nix shouldn’t have any issues in this matchup. The Raiders have a dreadful defense that can’t do anything well. Maxx Crosby is healthy again, and yet the Raiders still have one of the worst pressure rates in the NFL despite his presence. Nix didn’t have any time in the pocket last week against the Texans, but that will change in this matchup. As a result, Nix will have his way against Las Vegas’ poor secondary.

The Broncos will be able to run the ball effectively, too. The Raiders looked completely helpless to contain Travis Etienne and Bhayshul Tuten at the end of last week’s game. This was not a surprise, given that the Raiders are 21st against ground attacks.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: Andy Iskoe, a professional handicapper since 1990, said on our Wednesday show that the Raiders offensive line is the worst he’s ever seen. That’s saying a lot, though the Raiders did hold up well versus Jacksonville. The Jaguars are in the middle of the pack in pressure rate, so this wasn’t too shocking of a result, but still, a bit surprising.

It would be absolutely unbelievable if the Raiders were able to keep Denver’s pass rushers out of the backfield. The Broncos lead in the NFL in pressures – check out the NFL Pressure Rates via the link – so it doesn’t seem possible that the Raiders will give Geno Smith ample time to find his mediocre receivers against Denver’s secondary. Patrick Surtain will continue to be sidelined, but I don’t think it’ll matter because Smith will be on his back the entire night. Plus, Jakobi Meyers was just traded. Check out my NFL Trade Grades page for more.

The Raiders won’t be able to run the ball either. Ashton Jeanty is the league leader in yards before contract, so his misfortune will continue. The Broncos aren’t amazing against the run, but their 11th ranking in that regard will stymie Jeanty. And with Meyers gone, the Broncos will be able to play closer to the line of scrimmage.

RECAP: My rule for Thursdays is to back the better team as long as they’re focused. The thinking is that the inferior team doesn’t have enough preparation time to formulate a good game plan against the superior foe.

The Broncos are obviously better than the Raiders. They also match up extremely well against them. How will the Raiders’ atrocious offensive line handle the Denver pass rush? With Meyers gone, who, besides Brock Bowers, will get open? And how will Las Vegas’ defense stop anything?

Also, consider that the Raiders will be exhausted because they just had an overtime affair that went the whole 10 minutes. This is a horrible spot for any squad; teams playing on Thursdays after an overtime game are 6-25 against the spread dating all the way back to 2002. Thanks to Charles B. for the reminder!

Our Week 10 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There are no major injuries on the report for this game, so this pick will remain a four-unit selection on the Broncos.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: BetMGM has a $20 no-sweat bet, so we’ll use that for our player prop. We’re going with Michael Mayer over receptions because he’s being used much more recently, and that usage will continue to rise because of the Jakobi Meyers trade. The best number is over 2.5 receptions +100 at BetMGM.

Our same-game parlay will be built at DraftKings because it has a 30-percent boost for this game. We’re going with Mayer over 2.5 receptions, Ashton Jeanty over 2.5 receptions, and Evan Engram over 3.5 receptions. This $25 parlay pays $162.50. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps haven’t touched this game, which is a bit of a surprise. I still love Denver. The best number is -8.5 -103 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Broncos.

The Raiders will be exhausted off a full overtime.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Broncos -9.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Broncos -9.5.

Computer Model: Broncos -6.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.

Decent lean on the Broncos.

Percentage of money on Denver: 67% (227,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

History: Raiders have won 8 of the previous 10 meetings.

Opening Line: Broncos -9.5.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Clear, 54 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Broncos.

You may have noticed the site has a new look. Yes, after nearly two decades, we’ve finally re-designed our site to be more modern. This was not done on a whim, but rather out of necessity because of what occurred during the 2023 NFL Draft. Our site crashed during the entire first day of the draft, which was disastrous for our revenue stream because we make more money during the draft than any other time. The site crashed because a line of code conflicted with the old format of the site, so we had to transition to this new look.

Because we lost so much money during the draft, I want to point out that you can really help support the site by paying for the ad-free version of it. It’s $7.99 per month, but you’ll get a super-fast site with no ads. My developer will be adding new features to paid subscribers as well, so look for that in the near future. If you don’t want to pay, please spread the word about the site through word of mouth. That would also be a big help!

Week 9 Analysis: I thought last Sunday was frustrating. This Sunday, we had this go against us:

And that was before the Bengals onside kick recovery!

Not one special teams gaffe went our way. Not one, unless you want to count Ka’imi Fairbairn’s missed 53-yard field goal, but that was a long kick, and I’d never count a missed kick from 50-plus as bad luck for us.

I would really like to know what we’ve done to earn such horrible luck. It’s insane that we’ve had no breaks go our way concerning picks of four or more units this year. We caught one break in the Jets’ cover versus the Buccaneers in Week 3, and that was it for three-unit selections heading into Week 9. The fact that we’re not down 20-plus units despite all of our bad luck is saying that we’re handicapping most of the games at least somewhat well.

I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Bears, 3 units (win): I was losing my mind when the Bears surrendered an onside kick recovery, prompting the Bengals to complete a 14-point comeback in a few minutes. Thankfully, the Bears somehow ended up covering.

Patriots, 3 units (win): This one was in doubt for a while, but the Falcons came back and nearly won. That’s now two missed kicks for Atlanta to prevent possible victories.

Packers, 4 units (loss): One of two horrible picks I made last week. I shouldn’t have ignored that the Packers were coming off a big win and had the Eagles coming up on the following Monday night.

Lions, 3 units (loss): This is not the second horrible pick, as the injury bug bit us hard. The Lions lost three offensive linemen to injury in this game, including both of their tackles.

Broncos, 3 units (win): The Broncos were able to benefit from C.J. Stroud’s injury. Is that lucky? Perhaps, but we’ve seen Stroud really struggle against top defenses all year. I don’t think the Texans would have won this game with Stroud, but in fairness, I would have complained about it had I selected Houston.

Chargers, 5 units (loss): In addition to the punt return listed above, Justin Herbert also threw a pick-six, and then Joe Alt got injured. Of the two quarterbacks to throw a pick-six in this game, it had to be Herbert? Cam Ward couldn’t give the Chargers a turnover? Really?

Redskins, 3 units (loss): The second horrible pick, and perhaps the worst selection I made all year. I ignored the obvious signs that the Redskins were a complete mess.

DENVER OFFENSE: Denver’s win over the Texans wasn’t the first time this year that Bo Nix struggled for most of the game, only to come through in the clutch to win at the very end. It’s unclear why Nix didn’t utilize his legs more earlier in the game, but he had two key scrambles to defeat Houston at the very end.

Nix shouldn’t have any issues in this matchup. The Raiders have a dreadful defense that can’t do anything well. Maxx Crosby is healthy again, and yet the Raiders still have one of the worst pressure rates in the NFL despite his presence. Nix didn’t have any time in the pocket last week against the Texans, but that will change in this matchup. As a result, Nix will have his way against Las Vegas’ poor secondary.

The Broncos will be able to run the ball effectively, too. The Raiders looked completely helpless to contain Travis Etienne and Bhayshul Tuten at the end of last week’s game. This was not a surprise, given that the Raiders are 21st against ground attacks.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: Andy Iskoe, a professional handicapper since 1990, said on our Wednesday show that the Raiders offensive line is the worst he’s ever seen. That’s saying a lot, though the Raiders did hold up well versus Jacksonville. The Jaguars are in the middle of the pack in pressure rate, so this wasn’t too shocking of a result, but still, a bit surprising.

It would be absolutely unbelievable if the Raiders were able to keep Denver’s pass rushers out of the backfield. The Broncos lead in the NFL in pressures – check out the NFL Pressure Rates via the link – so it doesn’t seem possible that the Raiders will give Geno Smith ample time to find his mediocre receivers against Denver’s secondary. Patrick Surtain will continue to be sidelined, but I don’t think it’ll matter because Smith will be on his back the entire night. Plus, Jakobi Meyers was just traded. Check out my NFL Trade Grades page for more.

The Raiders won’t be able to run the ball either. Ashton Jeanty is the league leader in yards before contract, so his misfortune will continue. The Broncos aren’t amazing against the run, but their 11th ranking in that regard will stymie Jeanty. And with Meyers gone, the Broncos will be able to play closer to the line of scrimmage.

RECAP: My rule for Thursdays is to back the better team as long as they’re focused. The thinking is that the inferior team doesn’t have enough preparation time to formulate a good game plan against the superior foe.

The Broncos are obviously better than the Raiders. They also match up extremely well against them. How will the Raiders’ atrocious offensive line handle the Denver pass rush? With Meyers gone, who, besides Brock Bowers, will get open? And how will Las Vegas’ defense stop anything?

Also, consider that the Raiders will be exhausted because they just had an overtime affair that went the whole 10 minutes. This is a horrible spot for any squad; teams playing on Thursdays after an overtime game are 6-25 against the spread dating all the way back to 2002. Thanks to Charles B. for the reminder!

Our Week 10 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There are no major injuries on the report for this game, so this pick will remain a four-unit selection on the Broncos.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: BetMGM has a $20 no-sweat bet, so we’ll use that for our player prop. We’re going with Michael Mayer over receptions because he’s being used much more recently, and that usage will continue to rise because of the Jakobi Meyers trade. The best number is over 2.5 receptions +100 at BetMGM.

Our same-game parlay will be built at DraftKings because it has a 30-percent boost for this game. We’re going with Mayer over 2.5 receptions, Ashton Jeanty over 2.5 receptions, and Evan Engram over 3.5 receptions. This $25 parlay pays $162.50. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps haven’t touched this game, which is a bit of a surprise. I still love Denver. The best number is -8.5 -103 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Broncos.

The Raiders will be exhausted off a full overtime.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Broncos -9.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Broncos -9.5.

Computer Model: Broncos -6.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.

Decent lean on the Broncos.

Percentage of money on Denver: 67% (227,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

History: Raiders have won 8 of the previous 10 meetings.

Opening Line: Broncos -9.5.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Clear, 54 degrees. Light wind.