2025 NFL Picks – Week 8: Bills at Panthers

The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

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BUFFALO OFFENSE: I’m sure when fantasy football players were diagnosing Josh Allen’s matchups heading into 2025, they deemed that this would be a very easy one. Carolina, after all, had one of the worst defenses in the NFL last year. How could Allen and his teammates not dominate the Panthers?

Somehow, Carolina is 10th in defensive EPA since Week 2. The Panthers are even first against the run! This is shocking, but true, so don’t expect James Cook to have the sort of performance he enjoyed in the first couple of weeks of the season.

Allen’s outlook, however, is a different story. While the Panthers’ defensive rankings look great, it must be noted that they’ve played some sketchy quarterbacks. Those include Justin Fields, Tua Tagovailoa, Trevor Lawrence, and Kyler Murray. They also took on Drake Maye and Dak Prescott, but the Patriots and Cowboys scored 42 and 27 points, respectively, in those contests. Maye was particularly great, going 14-of-17 for 203 yards and three total touchdowns. This gives me confidence that Allen will have a big game.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Anyone who backs the Bills in this game should be more concerned with the defense than the offense. This is obvious, but must be said because Buffalo’s defensive rankings are poor. They’re 21st in overall defensive EPA, but even worse against the run (27th).

There’s some hope for the Bills, even though their struggling run defense doesn’t match up well versus the upstart Rico Dowdle. Buffalo has been so abysmal against ground attacks because of Matt Milano’s absence. Milano has had the bye week to recover, so perhaps he’ll be close to 100 percent for this game. If so, the Bills should be able to hold up decently against the run. If not, Dowdle could have another strong performance.

Buffalo’s ability to clamp down on Dowdle will be instrumental in its chances of covering the spread. The one thing the Bills do well defensively is rush the passer. So, if Andy Dalton, who will be starting for the injured Bryce Young, will be confronted with plenty of long-yardage situations, Buffalo could sack him repeatedly and perhaps force some turnovers.

RECAP: I don’t find either side particularly appealing. If the Bills won prior to their bye, I’d perhaps consider the Panthers if I learned that Milano would be sidelined once again, or perhaps limited in what he could do on the field. However, Buffalo lost two consecutive games prior to the bye, so the team might be focused against the Panthers.

I bring up focus because the Bills have the Chiefs on the slate next week. This could be a potential look-ahead situation, but I’m not as confident in that because of the two losses prior to the bye. Still, I don’t know if Buffalo will take the Panthers completely seriously. This is a non-conference opponent that isn’t widely respected, so there’s a chance the Bills will be a bit flat. And even if they’re not, who’s to say Milano will be healthy enough to improve the ailing run defense?

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Kevin made a great point on our live stream. This is the second time the Panthers will be going up in class this season. The other occasion was a blowout loss versus the Panthers. The Bills might be worth a small bet if Matt Milano can return to action. He was limited on Wednesday.

The Motivation. Edge: Panthers.

The Bills are coming off two straight losses, but they battle the Chiefs next week.

The Spread. Edge: Panthers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -9.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bills -7.

Computer Model: Bills -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

The public is still on the Bills.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 79% (20,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.

Josh Allen is 13-9 ATS off a loss since his second season.

Opening Line: Bills -7.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: .