I’m going to use these rankings as the order for my 2024 NFL Mock Draft during the early stages of the 2023 season. Follow @walterfootball.
I’ve gone from WORST to FIRST, so if you don’t see reverse numbering (via Javascript), don’t worry; the Colts and Texans aren’t my top teams.
NFL Power Rankings updated May 14, 2023
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Arizona Cardinals (4-13) – Previously: 32.
The Cardinals are a mess. J.J. Watt has retired, Kyler Murray is coming off a torn ACL, and there’s talk that DeAndre Hopkins is on his way out. Also, take a look at their top three pass rushers: Myjai Sanders, Cameron Thomas, and B.J. Ojulari. Who!? The good news is that the Cardinals could have two top-10 picks next year. In fact, in my 2024 NFL Mock Draft, they’re selecting twice in the top five!
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8) – Previously: 30.
The Buccaneers barely scratched and clawed their way into the playoffs last year – with Tom Brady. Now, Brady is gone, and he’ll be replaced by either Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask. Think that’s a bit of a dropoff? The good news is that this makes them one of the favorites to land Caleb Williams or Drake Maye next April.
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Carolina Panthers (7-10) – Previously: 28.
The Panthers made some horrible moves in free agency, overpaying Adam Thielen, Miles Sanders, and Hayden Hurst. They also dealt D.J. Moore to the Bears. Bryce Young won’t have much around him to succeed right away, and if I were him, I’d worry about my front office’s ability to make correct decisions.
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Houston Texans (3-13-1) – Previously: 29.
The Texans finally won’t be the worst team in the NFL. They were able to do the smart thing, despite some horrible media reports – check out to see who the best and worst NFL Draft reporters were this year – they did the right thing and landed both C.J. Stroud and Will Anderson. They still have some glaring holes on the roster, but the team will be way more competitive in 2023.
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Indianapolis Colts (4-12-1) – Previously: 27.
Anthony Richardson is raw, so it remains to be seen if he’ll start immediately. If not, it’ll be Gardner Minshew on what looks to be a very pedestrian team. Shaq Leonard figures to return, but the Colts lost Stephon Gilmore and a couple of other defensive starters.
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New England Patriots (8-9) – Previously: 26.
The good news for Mac Jones is that he’ll have a real offensive coordinator. Bill O’Brien was an idiot when it came to making personnel decisions, but at least he knows how to run an offense, unlike Matt Patricia. The bad news for Jones is that the front office failed to fix the offensive line, so it’s going to be very difficult for New England to be competitive with the other three teams in its division.
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Green Bay Packers (8-9) – Previously: 25.
I’m shocked the Packers received so much for Aaron Rodgers, given that they didn’t have any leverage. Obtaining such a great pick haul will allow them to build well around No Cookie Jordan Love. The only question is if Love is any good.
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Tennessee Titans (7-10) – Previously: 31.
I thought the Titans would begin their rebuilding process, but that’s not the case, apparently. They haven’t traded Derrick Henry, Kevin Byard, or Ryan Tannehill. They also managed to find some replacements on the offensive line with Peter Skoronski and Andre Dillard. Tennessee won’t be nearly as bad as I thought it would be, though I suppose there’s still time for the front office to change course and trade some of the veterans.
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Chicago Bears (3-14) – Previously: 24.
The Bears have added tons of talent in free agency. They signed a very talented guard in Nate Davis, as well as two excellent linebackers, Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards. They also traded for D.J. Moore to give Justin Fields a legitimate No. 1 receiver. In the draft, they obtained a left tackle with upside in Darnell Wright. There’s little doubt that the Bears are out of the NFL’s cellar. They may even have a chance to reach the playoffs.
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New Orleans Saints (7-10) – Previously: 19.
The Saints never had a chance last year with so many injuries. They could be better this upcoming season, but it seems as though they’re spinning their tires with Derek Carr, who is as mediocre as it gets. Also, remember that the Saints will be coached very poorly once again by Dennis Allen. I’d rather see the Saints finally blow everything up and begin from scratch because they’re in store for nothing but seven-, eight- and nine-win seasons on the horizon.
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Atlanta Falcons (6-11) – Previously: 23.
The Falcons could be the best team in the NFC South after signing Calais Campbell, Jessie Bates, and David Onyemata, and then drafting Bijan Robinson. I know that’s like crowning the winner of a beauty pageant comprised of nothing but 400-pound women, but at least it’s something. Besides, you never know what can happen in a one-and-done playoff format.
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Washington Redskins (8-8-1) – Previously: 22.
The Redskins seem committed to Slingin’ Sammy Howell, which is not a surprise, given how impressive he was last preseason and also the 2022 finale versus Dallas. The Redskins also did a good job of shoring up their secondary in the draft, assuming that all of their early picks on defensive backs don’t bust.
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Los Angeles Rams (5-12) – Previously: 20.
Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Aaron Donald will be back next year, so the Rams will be way more competitive than they were in the second half of 2022. However, the Rams have some major offensive line issues that haven’t been addressed this offseason, aside from their second-round pick that was used on Steve Avila. Furthermore, the Rams lost Jalen Ramsey, Bobby Wagner, Leonard Floyd, and a couple of other key players. It’s safe to say that the Rams’ Super Bowl window has closed.
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Las Vegas Raiders (6-11) – Previously: 16.
I bet the Raiders to win the Super Bowl, but only because I thought there was a good chance Aaron Rodgers would want to join his former teammate, Davante Adams. Instead, the Raiders signed Jimmy Garoppolo, who won’t be able to manage games as well now that he won’t have an elite roster around him. That said, the Raiders have a good roster, so I think they would be a playoff team in the NFC. Unfortunately for them, the extremely difficulty of the AFC could keep them home come mid-January.
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Cleveland Browns (7-10) – Previously: 13.
It feels weird to say this, but if Deshaun Watson can be as good as Jacoby Brissett was last year, Cleveland will have a chance to make the playoffs because it bolstered its defensive weaknesses by signing Dalvin Tomlinson and Juan Thornhill, and retaining Anthony Walker. Watson was worse than Brissett in 2022, but he’ll have an entire offseason to re-adjust to the NFL after so much time off. That said, I’m not fully sold on Watson returning to form, given that we haven’t seen him play on a high level since 2020.
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New York Giants (9-7-1) – Previously: 17.
I expected more from the Giants this offseason. They had the fourth-most cap space in the league, so I thought they’d make a big splash. To be fair, they had to re-sign Daniel Jones and franchise Saquon Barkley, but I still feel like they’ve missed out on improving their roster. That said, if Evan Neal can make a considerable leap in his second year, the Giants’ offensive line will be able to protect Jones at an elite level.
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Seattle Seahawks (9-8) – Previously: 18.
The Seahawks were terrible metrics-wise late in the year, so it’s not a surprise that they struggled to close out the season. However, with Bobby Wagner, Devon Witherspoon, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba added to the mix, Seattle has a good chance to actually be worthy of a playoff spot in 2023.
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Minnesota Vikings (13-4) – Previously: 15.
I’m used to calling the Vikings overrated, but I actually bet them to win Super Bowl LVIII. I kid you not! Check out my NFL Super Bowl Odds page for more!
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Dallas Cowboys (12-5) – Previously: 14.
It was fairly obvious that the Cowboys will not be able to sustain playoff success with the trio of Mike McCarthy, Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott. The former is gone, but McCarthy needed to be jettisoned as well. Instead, the Cowboys moved on from their innovative offensive coordinator, Kellen Moore. This left McCarthy talking about how he wants to “run the damn ball.” What year does this guy think this is, 1998? Apparently, Jerry Jones agrees, because he used his first-round pick on a run-stuffing defensive tackle. I guess the Cowboys think they will be going against the likes of Terrell Davis, Eddie George, and Fred Taylor on a weekly basis.
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Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8) – Previously: 11.
The Jaguars had a disappointing end to their season because they weren’t very competitive with the Chiefs. The disappointment continued in the offseason, as the dreadful defense wasn’t addressed after the team squandered picks on backup running backs and tight ends on Day 2 of the 2023 NFL Draft. It’s nice that Calvin Ridley will join the offense, but the Jaguars won’t be able to stop anyone.
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Baltimore Ravens (10-7) – Previously: 21.
Lamar Jackson will return, and he’ll have a greatly upgraded receiving corps with Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham Jr. joining the team. I still have concerns about the offensive line, and the defense isn’t as strong as it once was, but Baltimore will be in play for a postseason spot as long as Jackson can remain on the field.
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San Angeles Chargers (10-7) – Previously: 12.
How can Brandon Staley keep his job after two debacles in six days? He somehow got Mike Williams injured by playing him in a meaningless game, and then followed that up by blowing a 27-0 lead six days later! Making matters worse, the only player the Chargers added in free agency was a decrepit Eric Kendricks. I guess the silver lining is that the Chargers obtained an insurance receiver in Quentin Johnston just in case Staley gets a receiver hurt once again in another meaningless game.
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Denver Broncos (5-12) – Previously: 10.
The Broncos appear to have solved the two issues that prevented Russell Wilson from playing well last year. The first was the miserable coaching, which Denver upgraded with Sean Payton. The second was some awful blocking. With Mike McGlinchey and Ben Powers signed, and Garett Bolles returning from injury, Denver will have strong blocking in 2023. There won’t be any excuses for Wilson this upcoming season, so I think there’s a chance we’ll see the Broncos live up to their 2022 expectations this upcoming year.
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Pittsburgh Steelers (9-8) – Previously: 9.
Kenny Pickett will have experience entering the 2023 season. He’ll also have T.J. Watt on the other side, which is crucial because the Steelers were 8-2 with Watt last year. The Steelers also improved their offensive line this offseason by signing Isaac Seumalo and then drafting Broderick Jones. They also addressed their secondary via Patrick Peterson and Joey Porter Jr. If the Steelers can avoid major injuries, they will definitely be able to make a deep playoff run.
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San Francisco 49ers (13-4) – Previously: 8.
Like Tom Brady in 2001, Brock Purdy got hurt in the championship game, but unlike the Patriots, the 49ers didn’t have a viable backup, so they lost. Brady struggled in his second year as a starter, failing to get his team to the playoffs. Purdy could have similar issues because he needs surgery on his elbow. Purdy also won’t have his excellent right tackle, Mike McGlinchey, who signed with the Broncos this offseason. Furthermore, the 49ers lost some key depth on their defensive line.
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Detroit Lions (9-8) – Previously: 6.
The Lions were 8-2 to close out the year. They’ll have Jahmyr Gibbs and Jameson Williams boosting their offense in 2023 – after Williams serves his six-game suspension – and they also made three significant upgrades to their defense. An argument can be made that Detroit is the best team in the NFC, though the Eagles still probably hold that distinction. The sharps agree, as they’ve been betting the Lions heavily to win the Super Bowl, dragging the odds down from 33/1 to 21/1.
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Miami Dolphins (9-8) – Previously: 5.
It’s all about Tua Tagovailoa’s health. If the Dolphins, who acquired Jalen Ramsey, David Long and DeShon Elliott this offseason, can have their starting quarterback remain on the field, they’ll have a legitimate chance to make a Super Bowl run. Unfortunately for them, Tagovailoa hasn’t been able to play every game in a season yet in his pro career.
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New York Jets (7-10) – Previously: 4.
I bet the Jets to win the Super Bowl before the Aaron Rodgers announcement occurred, so I’m happy with that decision, as they were bet down from the line I got (30/1) all the way down to 11/1. I just didn’t like that Joe Douglas surrendered so much for Aaron Rodgers, given that the Packers had no leverage. I imagine there were many kids who took advantage of Douglas when he was in grade school. He likely traded away his bag of Doritos and Twinkies for brussel sprouts and cauliflower.
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Kansas City Chiefs (14-3) – Previously: 3.
I don’t think the Chiefs were the best team last year. They struggled to separate themselves from most opponents during the regular season, then needed some horrible calls and a slippery field to win two of their three playoff games. They still won, so they deserve credit for that, but I don’t think they should be the favorite to repeat.
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Buffalo Bills (13-3) – Previously: 2.
The Bills were a completely different team after Von Miller got hurt on Thanksgiving. They blew out the Patriots the following Thursday, but didn’t have a convincing win after that. Even their 35-13 victory over the Bears was misleading, as Buffalo trailed 10-6 at halftime in that game. I bring up Miller because there have been reports that he may not be ready for the season opener. The Bills, however, have done a good job of bolstering their offense with some new blockers and Dalton Kincaid in the opening round.
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Philadelphia Eagles (14-3) – Previously: 7.
The Eagles were slated to lose a bunch of key players this offseason. However, they could be even better in 2023 if their draft picks do as well as some project. I don’t know how they pulled it off, but they landed both Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith in the 2023 NFL Draft. That’s scary, given that they had the No. 1 pass rush in the NFL last year!
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Cincinnati Bengals (12-4) – Previously: 1.
Cincinnati’s injury-ravaged offensive line finally caught up with them in the AFC Championship after it was a non-factor in the prior round. It has to be frustrating that the blocking was still an issue one year after the team lost because of it in the Super Bowl. The Bengals, to their credit, tried once again to improve their blocking by signing Orlando Brown. I’d say this makes them the favorite to win the Super Bowl this year, but the AFC is going to be a grind, as usual.
2023 NFL MVP Projection:
Coming during the regular season
Go to 2023 NFL Mock Draft
NFL Picks - Dec. 13
2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11
NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9
2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29
Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4
2022 NFL Power Rankings. Week: Post-Super Bowl Power Rankings | Post-Free Agency Power Rankings | Post-NFL Draft Power Rankings | Post-Preseason Power Rankings | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17
2021 NFL Power Rankings. Week: Post-Super Bowl Power Rankings | Preseason Power Rankings | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | Playoffs |
2020 NFL Power Rankings. Week: Post-Super Bowl Power Rankings 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | Playoffs |
