NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 13, 2024 – Early Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2024): 6-6 (-$375)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2024): 6-10 (+$325)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2024): 6-9-1 (-$1,395)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2024): 10-6 (+$55)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2024): 10-4-2 (-$5)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2024): 4-10 (-$1,110)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2024): 7-6-1 (-$555)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2024): 6-9 (-$660)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2024): 10-5-1 (+$1,405)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2024): 7-7-1 (-$975)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2024): 6-7-1 (-$1,275)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2024): 11-3 (+$2,020)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 6-6-1 (-$1,370)
2024 NFL Picks: 95-88-8 (-$3,915)

NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Go to Week 13 NFL Picks – Late Games

The Matchup. Edge: Lions.

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Week 12 Analysis: We lost our top pick, taking a huge loss with the Redskins. We won our two four-unit selections, but the Washington defeat was painful. I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Redskins, 5 units (loss): The Redskins were sleepwalking through this game. They made so many careless mistakes. It’s almost like they forgot they were coming off consecutive losses. They weren’t looking ahead to anything either, so I don’t get why they were so flat.

Buccaneers, 4 units (win): This one was never in doubt.

Patriots, 3 units (loss): I don’t get how the Dolphins go from struggling to put the Raiders away to blowing out the Patriots with a Thursday game next.

Titans, 3 units (loss): I regret this pick the most. Texans offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik can’t adjust his game plan, so when the Texans can’t run the ball, they tend to struggle. Still, I didn’t expect Will Levis to look like Brett Favre.

Broncos, 4 units (win): Amazingly, Desmond Ridder almost back-doored us. That would have been so absurd, so thankfully it didn’t happen.

Chargers, 3 units (loss): The Chargers led 10-0 and trailed 17-16 entering the fourth quarter, but they committed so many holding penalties and couldn’t stop Baltimore once on fourth down.

DETROIT OFFENSE: If you can’t stop the run, you have no chance against the Lions. The one team to beat Detroit this year was the Buccaneers, who excel against the rush with Vita Vea. Recent opponents of the Lions like the Colts and Jaguars didn’t stand a chance with their soft run defenses.

The Bears cannot stop the run either. We just saw Aaron Jones gash them with ease, so the Lions will be able to move the chains on the ground. David Montgomery may miss this game, but that just means that Jahmyr Gibbs will get more touches.

This great rushing threat will make things very easy for Jared Goff. Then again, the Bears haven’t generated lots of pressure lately, so it probably wouldn’t matter anyway. Chicago surrendered a huge game to T.J. Hockenson last week, so perhaps Sam LaPorta will have a big game despite enduring an inconsistent season.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: If the Bears want to match the success the Lions have enjoyed in recent years, they’ll need to beef up their offensive line. The blocking has been poor for Caleb Williams, who often takes unnecessary sacks.

Williams will see lots of pressure in this game. The Lions rank sixth in pressure rate despite the Aidan Hutchinson injury, so they’ll be able to get after the rookie quarterback consistently. Williams won’t be able to lean on D’Andre Swift either, given that Detroit is stellar at stopping the rush.

Williams’ best bet is to connect with Keenan Allen once more. Allen had been struggling for most of the year, but finally came to life last week. The Lions allow lots of production to slot receivers, though this probably won’t be enough for Chicago.

RECAP: I have a few primary rules for Thursday and London games. One of them is to bet the better team if they’re going to be focused. The reason for this is that bad teams don’t have a chance to formulate a great game plan against a superior foe, which gives the better team a big advantage.

The Lions are obviously the better team, but will they be focused? Sure, this is a divisional game, but they’re favored by double digits. I don’t know if the Bears will have their full attention. And sure, there’s the possibility that the Lions could remember what transpired last Thanksgiving as a reminder that they may need to take this game seriously, but they’re still huge favorites against a team with a losing record.

It must also be pointed out that the Bears have been playing better of late. They’re 4-7, but if you reverse a Hail Mary, a blocked field goal, and an overtime result, they’d be 7-4. Their offense has looked better since the offensive coordinator change, so there could be a back-door cover.

Despite all of this, I’m still going to be on the Lions. Detroit is just so much better than everyone else right now. The team appears to be on a mission, so it shouldn’t surprise anyone if it covers this large number. Plus, the Lions fit the other rule I have for Thursday, which is to fade teams coming off overtime affairs. Teams that previously endured overtime prior to their Thursday games are a pathetic 6-25 against the spread. If you’re wondering how double-digit underdogs fare in this dynamic, they’re 0-3 against the spread.

Our Week 13 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

PLAYER PROP BET & SAME-GAME PARLAY: My favorite prop bet from this game is Jahmyr Gibbs over rushing yards. The Bears are weak to the run, and David Montgomery is banged up, so he may not get his usual workload. The best number is over 71.5 rushing yards -113 at FanDuel.

We’re throwing the Gibbs rushing prop into a same-game parlay with Caleb Williams over 31.5 rushing yards, Keenan Allen over 49.5 receiving yards, and Sam LaPorta over 36.5 receiving yards. The Lions allow lots of rushing yards to quarterbacks, and Williams has been running more since the offensive coordinator change. The Lions also are weak to slot receivers, and Allen had a great performance on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Bears tend to allow plenty of receiving yards to tight ends. This $25 parlay pays $266.76 on FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

I’m also going to be doing a Thanksgiving mega parlay that is comprised of all my favorite props from each game. The following will be in the parlay: Jahmyr Gibbs over 71.5 rushing yards, Caleb Williams over 31.5 rushing yards, Keenan Allen over 49.5 receiving yards, Lions -9.5, Giants +3.5, Rico Dowdle over 66.5 rushing yards, Tucker Kraft over 31.5 receiving yards, Jonnu Smith over 48.5 receiving yards. This $20 parlay pays $3,122.94 on FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Bears down to +9.5. I was wondering if that was because of an Amon-Ra St. Brown injury, but St. Brown is expected to play. Taylor Decker, conversely, is out, as is Carlton Davis. I still like the Lions for three units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: We finally had some take-back on the Lions with the line shifting to -10. The majority of the sharp money is on the Bears. The Lions will have Amon-Ra St. Brown and David Montgomery, but will be without Taylor Decker, which is a bit of a bummer. In addition to betting the Lions, I’m going to bet a half unit on the -19.5 +280 at FanDuel. The best line is -9.5 -112 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Lions.

The Bears will be exhausted following their overtime game.

The Spread. Edge: Lions.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Lions -11.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Lions -11.

Computer Model: Lions -13.

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.

Good action on the Lions.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 78% (328,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bears.

History: Bears have won 8 of the last 12 meetings.

Lions are 7-11 ATS as a Thanksgiving host since 2002.

Opening Line: Lions -11.5.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

DALLAS OFFENSE: Anyone who just looked at the box score of the Cowboys-Redskins game may wonder if Dallas is suddenly an offensive juggernaut because it scored 34 points. Before late-game special teams nonsense, however, Dallas scored just 13 points. The team made up for its offensive line injuries by having Cooper Rush release the ball quickly. Rush spent the least time with the ball last week than any other quarterback this year.

The Redskins couldn’t quite figure out what the Cowboys were doing because they were sleepwalking through the game, but the Giants will be able to counter this. Dallas may feel as though it would need to utilize the same strategy, given how effectively the Giants can rush the quarterback. It also seems unlikely that the Cowboys would have their offensive linemen back after just four days.

One slim advantage the Cowboys will have is rushing the ball. The Giants are horrendous against the run. However, I’m calling this a slim edge because Rico Dowdle isn’t a very good player.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Giants will have to worry about Dallas’ pass rush as well. This may not have been the case earlier in the year when Andrew Thomas was playing, but the Giants have missed their All-Pro left tackle. They haven’t been able to pass protect at all without him.

Micah Parsons and company will obviously take advantage of this as well. Tommy DeVito was sacked frequently last week, and the same thing will occur on Thanksgiving unless the Giants establish the run and keep their meme quarterback in short-yardage situations.

The Giants should be able to run the ball. I like their chances of moving the chains on the ground better than Dallas. Devin Singletary and Tyrone Tracy are both superior runners, so they should be able to compile chunks of yardage throughout the afternoon.

RECAP: As mentioned above, the superior team needs to be highly considered as a potential wager in these Thursday games. However, I’m not sure if that would be the Giants or Cowboys. Both teams rank in the bottom five of my NFL Power Rankings. The Giants are lower, but it’s close enough to the margin of error.

Unfortunately, I don’t see an amazing betting opportunity in this game. The Giants quit because the front office made it known that tanking is the priority. Many players spoke out about Daniel Jones’ benching and eventual release. Those players did not try hard against the Buccaneers.

Players seldom quit for long, however, so the Giants may put forth a better effort in this contest. If so, they’ll have a good chance to cover against the Cowboys, a horrible team that doesn’t deserve to be favored by more than a field goal over anyone. Dallas is a bad team coming off a win, and bad teams have problems sustaining success.

I also like the line value we have with the Giants, as this spread rose from the advance line of -2.5 to -4. I’m going to bet a couple of units on the Giants, but this won’t be a big play because of the potential quit factor.

PLAYER PROP BET & SAME-GAME PARLAY: The Cowboys gave Rico Dowdle 19 carries last week. If he gets the same workload again, he’ll clear the over rushing prop. The Giants have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, after all. The best number is over 66.5 rushing yards -113 at Caesars.

We’re going to throw in the Dowdle over rushing yards into a parlay with Malik Nabers over 6.5 receptions, Luke Schoonmaker under 30.5 receiving yards, and Theo Johnson under 25.5 receiving yards. The Giants are force feeding Nabers the ball, and yet he still complained about a lack of targets last week. Both teams are also excellent against tight ends, though you can’t find the Schoonmaker leg in all sportsbooks. This $25 parlay pays $250. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’s not ideal that the Giants will be missing Jermaine Eluemunor and that the Cowboys will have Tyler Smith back from injury. However, Drew Lock will start over Tommy DeVito, which is an upgrade. The Cowboys are still a terrible team and have no business being favored by more than a field goal.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I don’t understand how the Lions let their huge lead slip away, so it sucks to start Thanksgiving off with a loss. I still like the Giants for a couple of units. The sharps haven’t touched this game. The best line is +4.5 -110 at Bookmaker or DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Giants.

Will the Giants keep quitting? The Cowboys are a bad team coming off a win.

The Spread. Edge: Giants.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cowboys -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -2.5.

Computer Model: Cowboys -6.

The Vegas. Edge: Giants.

Everyone is on the Cowboys.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 78% (227,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.

History: Cowboys have won 19 of the last 23 meetings.

Opening Line: Cowboys -2.5.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides were 32-35-1 in 2022, and they were 31-27 ATS in 2023. Publicly backed sides were 29-26 ATS through 11 weeks.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Buccaneers -6

Lions -7

Chiefs -10.5

Eagles -3

Texans -7.5

Redskins -10.5

Broncos -5.5

The public got its top two plays right, going 4-3 on the week overall. The public is now 33-28.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Buccaneers -6

Texans -4.5

Cowboys -4

Steelers +2.5

It should come as no surprise that the public is fading the Panthers, Jaguars, and Giants.

MIAMI OFFENSE: The Dolphins have made it known that they’ve fundamentally changed their offense. They’ve mostly abandoned their big, explosive plays and have transitioned to getting the ball out to their play-makers’ hands as quickly as possible. This would explain why Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle haven’t met expectations this year when Tua Tagovailoa has played, while De’Von Achane and Jonnu Smith get tons of targets each week.

The shift makes sense, given Miami’s offensive line woes. The Dolphins can negate pressure this way, which is crucial in a game like this because the Packers are so effective at getting to the quarterback. On the flip side, the Packers are guilty of the fourth-most missed tackles in the NFL, so Miami could break some long gains after these short tosses.

What we won’t see from the Dolphins, however, is an established running game. The Packers handle the rush well, and the Dolphins don’t block in the interior very effectively because they still miss offseason departures Robert Hunt and Connor Williams.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: The Dolphins weren’t supposed to have a dynamic pass rush because of injuries to Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb, but they have gotten after the quarterback very well lately. Zach Sieler’s return from injury has been huge, as has Chop Robinson’s emergence. Robinson has exceeded expectations as a first-round rookie, so the Dolphins will have a chance to generate pressure on “No Cookie” Jordan Love despite Love being well protected.

The Dolphins need all the help they can get, given how many weapons Love has at his disposal. Romeo Doubs may miss this game, but Love still has three dynamic receivers to throw to, as well as Tucker Kraft. Miami is weak to tight ends, so Kraft could have the best performance.

Miami has also improved at stopping the run. Josh Jacobs has been building some major momentum lately, and he would have certainly continued that if he had gone up against the Dolphins about a month-and-a-half ago. However, Miami hasn’t allowed more than 62 rushing yards to an opponent since Oct. 6.

RECAP: Tagovailoa said he wants to destroy narratives in this game. The narrative entering this Thanksgiving night game is that the Dolphins can’t beat good teams and can’t win in cold weather. It’s projected to be in the 20s in Green Bay this Thursday night.

I hope Tagovailoa can forgive me, but I’m going to side with the narrative. I don’t believe in Mike McDaniel as a football coach to back him against a good team. Also, we’re getting some decent line value with the Packers. They were -3.5 on the advance line, and now they’re -3. That’s only a half-point move, but it’s to the ultimate key number of three.

Ultimately, I don’t see a good betting opportunity in this game. I expect the Dolphins to lose, but they could do that and still cover, like that did at Buffalo a few weeks ago.

PLAYER PROP BET & SAME-GAME PARLAY: Tucker Kraft stands to benefit from Romeo Doubs’ concussion. He also stands to benefit from Miami being horrible against tight ends. This is my favorite player prop of the Thanksgiving slate. The best number is over 31.5 receiving yards -113 at FanDuel.

We’re throwing in the Kraft over receiving yards with Jonnu Smith over 48.5 receiving yards, Josh Jacobs over 14.5 receiving yards, and Christian Watson over 44.5 receiving yards. The Packers also allow lots of production to tight ends. Meanwhile, the Dolphins tend to give up many receptions to running backs, so Jacobs should be able to hit 15 receiving yards. I also like Watson to make amends for his drop last week. This $25 parlay pays $272.34 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Dolphins will be down Kendall Fuller, while the Packers will be without Jaire Alexander, Romeo Doubs, and a couple of linebackers. That’s an advantage for Miami, but not enough to sway me.

FINAL THOUGHTS: We’re not on the positive end of the variance stick today. The Cowboys score two touchdowns off turnovers, while the Giants can’t get a turnover because Cooper Rush’s knee was down. Anyway, we can’t lose money on a side here because we’re not betting either side. This line is -3.5, which is unappealing. But I wouldn’t want to be on Miami either. The sharps haven’t touched this game. The best line is -3.5 +100 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Dolphins.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Packers -3.5.

Computer Model: Dolphins -4.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 56% (269,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Dolphins are 30-20 ATS as a road underdog of less than 5 since 2008.

Matt LaFleur is 54-39 ATS in the regular season.

Opening Line: Packers -3.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 28 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s some hate mail from last week:

This isn’t a response about my picks, but I replied to Torrey Smith, who tweeted out something moronic almost a month ago.

Shout out to @real_mad_ who doesn’t know how the United States work. He should change his handle to @real_dumb_.

Speaking of, Dumbosaur Captain replied:

Imagine believing that childless cat ladies matter to anyone except the cats that will eventually eat their corpses.

This guy made a rhyme:

How proud do you think this guy is for that post? He must have been thinking about it weeks later. “OMG HOW CLEVER AM I!? I MADE A POST THAT RHYMED HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!”

Good job, Big Mike. That was a very “special” reply by a very “special” guy.

Here’s more projection:

I think you for your patronage, William. And no, I don’t think cat ladies like you should vote.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Though the Chiefs barely won in Carolina last week, they saw Patrick Mahomes put together one of his best performances of the season. Mahomes went 27-of-37 for 269 yards and three touchdowns. He also had a clutch scramble to set up the decisive field goal.

Granted, Mahomes was battling a miserable Carolina defense, but it’s not like the Raiders are this defensive juggernaut. In fact, the Raiders are downright awful on this side of the ball, ranking dead last in adjusted defensive EPA. They’re missing several cornerbacks, so Mahomes should have an easy time finding his receivers and tight ends.

Speaking of Mahomes’ weapons, Isiah Pacheco could make his return in this game. The Raiders are mediocre when it comes to stopping the run, so Pacheco could hit some explosive plays if he’s not a shell of his former self.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: When Gardner Minshew broke his collar bone, I thought we’d have a golden opportunity to bet against Desmond Ridder on Black Friday. Sportsbooks could have announced, “Black Friday sale! Bet on the Chiefs and win free money!” Unfortunately, Ridder won’t start because Aidan O’Connell is set to return from his thumb injury.

It remains to be seen if O’Connell is healthy. Even if he is, he won’t have an easy time against a Chiefs team that generates pressure at the sixth-highest clip in the NFL. The Raiders have a poor offensive line, so this is not a good recipe for them.

The Chiefs are also stout when it comes to clamping down on the run, so O’Connell will have to move the chains on his own. The only thing that will work is Brock Bowers; the Chiefs happen to be very weak to tight ends.

RECAP: The Chiefs are a team that doesn’t often win by margin. They treat the regular season like a tune-up for the playoffs. As a result, they have just two victories by double digits this year.

However, I think this will be the third. Not only are the Chiefs the better team on a short week; they could be motivated because of what occurred last year. Kansas City lost outright to these very same Raiders on Christmas, so the Chiefs could be focused on a rare occasion as a big favorite.

Also, consider the Raiders’ quarterback situation. It sounds like O’Connell will play, but the Raiders may be rushing him back from his thumb injury. Even if O’Connell plays, he presents a problem as a miserable quarterback against a solid Chiefs defense. If you remove garbage time, O’Connell was the third-worst quarterback according to EPA in 2023, among signal-callers who threw the ball 125 times or more. The only quarterbacks worse were Easton Stick and Deshaun Watson. Even Tommy DeVito was one spot better.

The Chiefs should win this game by double digits. They prevailed by only seven versus the Raiders earlier in the season, but Minshew scored a back-door touchdown in the final minute. Minshew has been a better quarterback than O’Connell in the past two seasons, and O’Connell may not even be healthy, so it shouldn’t surprise anyone if this is a blowout.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Aidan O’Connell has been practicing fully, so maybe he’s 100 percent after all. What’s not 100 percent is the Raiders’ secondary, which will be down multiple cornerbacks again. Facing Patrick Mahomes without multiple cornerbacks is obviously not ideal.

PLAYER PROP BET & SAME-GAME PARLAY: The Chiefs have a good defense, but they can’t defend tight ends at all. Brock Bowers should have a great game. The best number is over 56.5 yards -120 at BetMGM.

I’m going to throw in the Bowers over receiving prop in a parlay on FanDuel (61.5) because BetMGM doesn’t have one of the players we need. The other legs in this parlay are: Tre Tucker over 31.5 receiving yards, Travis Kelce over 55.5 receiving yards, and Noah Gray over 20.5 receiving yards. The Chiefs are also bad against No. 2 receivers because they tend to double team the opposing top option. Meanwhile, the Raiders are also awful at covering tight ends, so I like Kelce and Gray (not on BetMGM) to go over. This $25 parlay pays $267.71 on FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This should come as a bit of a surprise, but there’s some sharp money coming in on the Chiefs. Despite this, I’m going to drop to one unit because I’m not feeling great about laying nearly two touchdowns with a team that doesn’t care to win by margin at all. The best line is -13.5 -108 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Chiefs.

The Chiefs may remember what happened against the Raiders on Christmas.

The Spread. Edge: Raiders.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -13.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -12.5.

Computer Model: Chiefs -8.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 55% (177,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Chiefs have won 17 of the last 20 meetings.

Raiders are 19-13 ATS as double-digit underdogs since 2008.

Patrick Mahomes is 94-25 SU, 63-54 ATS (49-40 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Opening Line: Chiefs -12.5.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Slight chance of snow, 35 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Redskins.

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WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The Redskins couldn’t move the ball whatsoever against the Cowboys until very late in the game. Jayden Daniels looked hindered by his rib injury despite having nine days of rest. His offensive line didn’t do him any favors by allowing lots of pressure to Micah Parsons and company.

The good news for Daniels is that the Titans have the third-worst pressure rate in the NFL, so he’ll have more time to throw in this game. He’ll have the luxury of battling a secondary missing both starting outside cornerbacks.

The Redskins should have plenty of success moving the chains aerially if Daniels’ health improves at all. Generating yardage on the ground will be a different story, however. The Titans are stout against the run, and both of Washington’s running backs are hurt.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Will Levis won’t sympathize with Daniels regarding pressure. Levis took nine sacks last week against the Texans. Granted, some of those sacks were his fault, but he has an ineffective offensive line blocking for him.

The Redskins generate a decent amount of pressure. They also blitz often, which is bad news for Levis because he struggles when blitzed. His completion percentage drops nearly 10 points; his YPA plummets by 1.3 yards; and his turnover-worthy play percentage rises by 0.7. Levis is known for making bone-headed decisions, so none of this should be surprising.

Levis will at least be able to lean on the running game. The Redskins struggle against the run, and Tony Pollard is coming off a stellar performance in Houston.

RECAP: There’s a huge overreaction regarding this spread. The Redskins were -8 on the advance line. Because of what transpired last week, it’s down to -5.5. That’s two-and-a-half points of line value through the key numbers of seven and six.

This value is too good to pass up, so I’ll be on Washington. The Redskins sleepwalked through last week’s game, so I’ll be shocked if they don’t rebound with a much better effort in this contest. Conversely, the Titans are a bad team coming off a victory. Bad teams have trouble sustaining success, so I love fading them following wins. And sure, the Titans won at Houston, so some might be quick to point out that they’re not a bad team. I would disagree with this, however, because the Titans were blown out against the Vikings and Chargers, and they needed overtime to beat the crappy Patriots.

My only worry is Daniels’ rib injury, but he’s another week removed from that, so he’ll be close to 100 percent soon. I’d rather be early than late on this, so I’m going to be betting Washington aggressively.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Brian Robinson was limited in Wednesday’s practice, which is a bit of a surprise because I expected him to be out this week. It’s tough to run on Tennessee’s defense, but Robinson at least gives the Redskins a better chance of doing so. Also, Marshon Lattimore was limited on Wednesday, so perhaps he’ll finally make his Washington debut.

PLAYER PROPS: No player prop bets in this game. I considered Will Levis over interceptions, but the number is a bit too high (-155 at DraftKings) when considering that the Redskins defense has just four picks all year. Tony Pollard’s over rushing yards are definitely worth betting if you think the Titans will win. Pollard has a great matchup, but I fear that the Titans may fall too far behind for him to run very much in the second half.

SATURDAY NOTES: Marshon Lattimore won’t make his debut for the Redskins, but Brian Robinson will play. Sharp money on Washington has taken this line up to -6.

FINAL THOUGHTS: It’s a shame that -5.5 is off the board, but the sharps bet Washington at that number. They haven’t done so at -6, but I still like the Redskins a lot there. The best number is -6 -103 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Redskins.

The Titans are a bad team coming off a win.

The Spread. Edge: Redskins.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Redskins -8.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Redskins -8.

Computer Model: Redskins -1.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.

Slight lean on the Redskins.

Percentage of money on Washington: 61% (97,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Titans.

Redskins are 12-28 ATS as home favorites of more than 4 since 2000.

Opening Line: Redskins -8.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 41 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Chargers.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Futures page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The Chargers were a huge disappointment Monday night. They got off to a hot start, but following their 10-0 lead, they were able to produce just six points the rest of the way until garbage time. They had a dream matchup against an awful Baltimore pass defense, but constant offensive line penalties and some drops really hurt them.

Justin Herbert and company will have a chance to make amends for their ugly loss in this game. The Falcons can’t stop the pass at all because of numerous cornerback injuries. Bo Nix looked like John Elway against them two weeks ago, so Herbert will pick up where Nix left off.

The Falcons are better against the run than the pass, so I don’t expect the Chargers to move the chains on the ground very effectively, especially if J.K. Dobbins misses this game. Gus Edwards is terrible, so perhaps Jim Harbaugh will turn to Kimani Vidal.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: Unlike the Chargers, the Falcons will be able to run the ball. Bijan Robinson has been terrific of late, and he’ll have a great matchup if Denzel Perryman is sidelined. Perryman’s absence was huge on Monday night, and he won’t have a full week to recover.

Kirk Cousins will need Robinson to churn out significant yardage because he’ll be up against a dynamic pass rush. We’ve seen Atlanta’s offensive line falter against the talented AFC pass rushes this season, so things won’t go well for Cousins if he’s stuck in long-yardage situations.

Also, there’s a chance that Darnell Mooney will miss this game. Mooney injured his hamstring during the second quarter of the Week 11 loss, so he may not be ready to return. The Chargers were hurt by some of the secondary receivers Monday night, so Mooney’s potential absence could come into play.

RECAP: The Chargers didn’t come through for us on Monday night, but they’ve been so good to us otherwise this year. I’ll chalk the loss up to bad luck, as all those holding calls, drops, and fourth-down failures wouldn’t occur in every iteration.

Besides, I like backing good teams coming off losses, especially significant ones like nationally televised affairs. Harbaugh knows a thing or two about rebounding from defeats; excluding 2014 when his 49ers were not a good team, Harbaugh is 10-3 against the spread following a loss. I think it’ll be 11-3 ATS following this game because the Falcons aren’t a good team. Take out Cousins, Robinson and Drake London, and what do you have? Atlanta’s offensive line hasn’t held up well against great pass rushes, while its defense has been atrocious.

I like the Chargers quite a bit. They’ve taken care of business against bad teams, and they’ll do so again. And if you’re worried about the early start time, don’t be. Harbaugh has thrived in these situations. He’s 8-1 against the spread in 1 p.m. East Coast games, with the only loss coming this year to the Steelers when Herbert left the game early with an injury.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’s not great to see J.K. Dobbins, Denzel Perryman and Will Dissly all miss Wednesday’s practice, but then again, the Chargers are coming off a short week, so they might be giving these veterans some rest opportunities. Dobbins is expected to be out, so that’s more of a reference to the other two.

PLAYER PROPS: Tight ends rip Atlanta’s poor defense to shreds. Will Dissly should have a great game. The best number is over 40.5 receiving yards -118 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: The injury report isn’t great for the Chargers. They’re going to be down J.K. Dobbins, Denzel Perryman, and Cam Hart. Also, Daiyan Henley was downgraded to DNP on Friday. If he’s out, the Chargers will have cluster injuries at linebacker. Meanwhile, the Falcons will be healthier coming out of the bye with two cornerbacks and Darnell Mooney returning to action. I still like the Chargers, but I’m not as bullish on the play. I’m going to drop the unit count to three, and will decrease further if Henley is also ruled out.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Daiyan Henley will play for the Chargers, which is huge because it means that they don’t have cluster injuries at linebacker. The sharps are on the Falcons, but I’ll be going against them. The best line is -1 -108 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Chargers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chargers -3.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chargers -1.5.

Computer Model: Chargers -5.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.

Slight lean on the Chargers.

Percentage of money on San Angeles: 61% (107,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

Jim Harbaugh is 10-3 ATS after a loss, excluding 2014.

Jim Harbaugh is 8-1 ATS in 1 p.m. East Coast games.

Jim Harbaugh is 5-1 ATS after Monday Night Football.

Opening Line: Pick.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Bengals.

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CINCINNATI OFFENSE: It feels weird to say that Joe Burrow will try to pick up where Jameis Winston left off, but that’s exactly what the circumstances are. Jameis Winston shredded Pittsburgh’s offense in the second half last week despite playing in a blizzard, so Burrow will attempt to duplicate that feat in better conditions.

Burrow is obviously better than Winston, and now with Tee Higgins back, he has a better supporting cast. The Steelers have allowed some big games to outside receivers, so that doesn’t bode well for them in this matchup. It’d be one thing if the Steelers only had to worry about Chase, but Higgins’ presence makes it impossible for the opposition to constantly double team Chase. The Chargers did this, and we saw what happened.

The Steelers are stronger against the run than the pass, so I wouldn’t expect Chase Brown to get much on the ground. Brown has proven to be an excellent receiver out of the backfield, but Pittsburgh has defended that area of attack rather well.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Russell Wilson didn’t have quite as much success as Winston in Thursday’s blizzard. The moon balls weren’t all there, save for a couple of exceptions. The result was the team’s third loss of the year.

Wilson should be back to normal this week, provided we don’t get another poor weather game. The Bengals have major problems in the secondary, particularly when it comes to defending the deep ball. Justin Herbert torched them mercilessly last Sunday night, and Wilson could have similar success on deep shots to George Pickens and others.

Unlike the Bengals, the Steelers figure to run the ball well. Cincinnati has given up some big games on the ground this year; not just to running backs, but quarterbacks as well. Pittsburgh may realize this and give Justin Fields some opportunities to scramble.

RECAP: The Steelers were a fade last week, as they were in a horrible situation as a road favorite following a victory. Mike Tomlin has historically done very poorly in these spots (15-31 ATS).

This is a much better spot for Pittsburgh. Tomlin thrives as an underdog, particularly in divisional games. I hate going against Burrow coming off a loss because great quarterbacks tend to do their best following a defeat. However, this Cincinnati team sucks. The Bengals don’t do anything well outside of the passing game. The blocking is poor, while the defense can’t stop anyone. Everyone keeps expecting the Bengals to rebound, but they keep losing to teams that aren’t horrible. Their only wins have come against the Raiders, Browns, Giants, and Panthers. The Steelers are obviously much better than any team in that group, and yet they’re getting points in this matchup.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We had a question on Tuesday’s show about when Orlando Brown would return to the lineup. Brown was limited in Wednesday’s practice. If he can make it back to the field, that would be huge for Cincinnati.

PLAYER PROPS: Darnell Washington has seen an uptick in production ever since Russell Wilson took over as the starting quarterback. The Bengals struggle against tight ends, so Washington should be able to clear the low yardage total. The best number is over 14.5 receiving yards -120 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: It looks like Orlando Brown will be available for the Bengals after practicing fully on Friday. The sharp money has come in on Cincinnati.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Orlando Brown is active, but Logan Wilson is not. The sharps bet the Bengals, but I’d still lean toward the Steelers. The best line is +3 -109 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Pick.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bengals -2.5.

Computer Model: Bengals -1.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.

The Steelers are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 71% (116,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Steelers have won 26 of the last 35 meetings.

Mike Tomlin is 62-34 ATS as an underdog.

Russell Wilson is 33-16 ATS after a loss since his second season.

Russell Wilson is 35-18 ATS as an underdog.

Joe Burrow is 41-21 ATS when not favored by more than a touchdown (4-6 ATS otherwise).

Joe Burrow is 18-8 ATS after a loss.

Opening Line: Bengals -2.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Sunny, 33 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Colts.

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INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: It appeared as though the Colts were going to give the Lions a tough game. They scored twice early, as Anthony Richardson ran circles around them. Indianapolis didn’t score beyond six points, however, as the Lions controlled the game the rest of the way.

Richardson will look to rebound against a worse defense, but may not have the services of Josh Downs, who suffered a shoulder injury last week. On the bright side, Michael Pittman Jr. looked healthy for the first time in a long while. Downs has been Indianapolis’ best receiver this year, but Pittman’s improved health will make up for Downs’ potential absence.

The big difference between this game and the previous one for Indianapolis is that it’ll be able to run the ball. The Lions clamp down on the run extremely well, which would explain Jonathan Taylor’s meager stat line from last week. Taylor will rebound, given that the Patriots are very poor against ground attacks.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The Colts aren’t very good at stopping rushing attacks either. Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery just steamrolled them. Granted, the Patriots don’t run the ball nearly as well as the Lions, but Rhamondre Stevenson can be a solid threat on the ground.

Stevenson wasn’t able to get going last week, which put Drake Maye in constant third-and-long situations. Maye was crushed in those because his two tackles played horribly against an improving Miami pass rush. The Colts are just average at getting to the quarterback, so Maye won’t be harassed as much this week, especially when considering that he’ll be able to lean on Stevenson.

Maye should have the most success throwing to Hunter Henry. The Colts have had issues defending tight ends all year, and Henry has developed a good rapport with Maye already.

RECAP: The Patriots were a huge disappointment last week. I thought they’d be able to hang with the Dolphins. Instead, they trailed 21-0 at halftime and only scored their 15 points in garbage time.

The Patriots will have a better chance to compete against the Colts this week, but with this spread, we likely need them to win outright to cover this spread. That’s not something I want to bet.

Backing the Colts as road favorites doesn’t seem great until you remember that they have five wins this year, and they’ve beaten every losing team they’ve played this year, save for the Jaguars, who had a healthy team in that meeting. The Colts have wins over the Bears, Steelers, Titans, Dolphins, and Jets. And excluding the Jaguars, they’ve lost to the Texans twice, Packers, Vikings, Bills, and Lions. Tell me to which group the Patriots belong.

I’m going to back Indianapolis as a fade of the Patriots. I don’t think I’ll be betting a coin-flip game like this, but I did consider the Colts for a small bet.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The good news for the Colts is that Bernhard Raimann might be back this week, given that he was limited on Wednesday. The bad news is that Josh Downs, Braden Smith and Alec Pierce were all DNP on Wednesday as well. The Colts said that Downs’ injury wasn’t as bad as expected, but given that the Colts have a bye week coming up, they may just keep Downs out until Week 15.

PLAYER PROPS: The Colts have allowed a running back to rush for at least 64 yards in every single game dating back to Sept. 29. Yet, Rhamondre Stevenson’s prop total is much lower than that. How does that make sense? The best number is Stevenson over 49.5 rushing yards -113 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: Indianapolis’ offensive line is a disaster. They’re getting Bernhard Raimann back, but the team will be missing their top two centers, as well as tackle Braden Smith. The right side of the offensive line looks like: center Danny Pinter, right guard Dalton Tucker, and right tackle Blake Freeland. Tucker and Freeland both suck, while Pinter hasn’t played in two years, and when he did, he was even worse than Tucker and Freeland. Making matters worse, Josh Downs is sidelined as well. Alec Pierce could miss this game, too, but he practiced fully on Friday and should play. I love the idea of fading the Colts here because of their injuries. The problem is that the sharps already removed +3 from the board. Still, the Patriots seem like a good bet.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps hammered the Patriots at +3. It’s a shame we’re not getting that number anymore, but I still like New England to cover at +2.5 because of Indianapolis’ injuries. The best line is +2.5 -105 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Patriots.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Colts -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Colts -2.5.

Computer Model: Pick.

The Vegas. Edge: Patriots.

Plenty of action on the Colts.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 74% (89,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Colts -2.5.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Sunny, 36 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Texans.

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I wish this were an exaggeration, but I know so many people like this.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: It sounds like there is a good chance Trevor Lawrence will return this week. This is a major bummer because fading Mac Jones was going to be extremely lucrative. The Texans generate pressure at a high rate, and Jones wouldn’t have stood a chance.

Lawrence obviously will, provided that he’s healthy. Lawrence foolishly played hurt throughout the second half of 2023, and the Jaguars struggled as a result. If Lawrence is returning prematurely from this injury – history says there’s a good chance this is the case – then Lawrence will struggle against a defense that can bring the heat so well.

The other injured member of the backfield, Tank Bigsby, will be needed to give Jacksonville a chance. Bigsby is a much better runner than Travis Etienne, and he would be able to exploit Houston’s greatest defensive weakness, which is their inability to stop the run.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: Speaking of the running game, the Texans are very predictable offensively. This is because they run the ball at the highest clip in the NFL on first and second down. It doesn’t even matter what the circumstances are, as they did this even when Joe Mixon was sidelined. In their first meeting against Jacksonville, the Texans fed the ball to Cam Akers, which only put C.J. Stroud in constant third-and-long situations.

The Texans couldn’t run the ball last week against the Titans, which is why they struggled to move the chains. Tennessee has a tough run defense, so this wasn’t a surprise. The Jaguars, on the other hand, can’t stop the rush at all. Joe Mixon will rebound with a huge performance.

Mixon’s great running will only make things easier for Stroud, who will deliver downfield strikes to Nico Collins. The Jaguars’ poor secondary will be helpless to stop this.

RECAP: It’s difficult to handicap this game right now because we don’t know Lawrence’s status. If Lawrence sits, it’s an automatic fade of the Jaguars. The Texans will be able to score on Jacksonville because of the poor run defense, so they’ll be able to easily win this game because Jacksonville won’t be able to have any offensive success against the dreadful Jones. Houston’s great pass rush will make things very difficult for Jones.

On the other hand, if Lawrence is able to go, the Jaguars might be able to keep pace with the Texans, assuming Lawrence is close to 100 percent. Of course, there’s no guarantee of that because Lawrence played hurt last year, and when he did, he was very ineffective.

I’m probably going to be on the Texans no matter what, but the unit count will depend on Lawrence’s status.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Trevor Lawrence was limited in Wednesday’s practice, causing the line to drop to +4.5. There’s no guarantee that Lawrence will be 100 percent if he even plays, so I still would like Houston if he returns to the field.

PLAYER PROPS: I don’t understand why this number is so low. Joe Mixon has topped 100 rushing yards in six of his nine games. The Jaguars have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. And yet, the rushing prop isn’t even at 80 yards! Let’s take advantage of this mistake by the sportsbooks. The best number is over 79.5 rushing yards -120 at ESPNBet. I’m also going to bet on the 100+ and 125+ props as well.

SATURDAY NOTES: We’re still awaiting Trevor Lawrence’s status. He’s listed as questionable after being limited all week. I’ll have an update to this pick once we know if Lawrence will play.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Trevor Lawrence will play, but the Jaguars even admitted that he won’t be 100 percent. I’d consider betting Jacksonville if Lawrence were completely healthy because this could be considered their Super Bowl, but we just don’t know how effective he’ll be. The sharps bet the Jaguars. The best line is -3 -115 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Texans.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Texans -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Texans -7.

Computer Model: Texans -8.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Houston: 87% (106,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Texans.

History: Texans have won 22 of the last 28 meetings.

Doug Pederson is 2-5 ATS after a bye.

Opening Line: Texans -7.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 63 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The Vikings are 4-1 since losing Christian Darrisaw. Based on their final results in the past four weeks, it doesn’t look like they’ve skipped a beat without him. Then again, they’ve had mostly low offensive outputs against bad teams, so they’ll be more tested in this matchup.

The Cardinals don’t have a terrible pressure rate, so they could get to Sam Darnold on some occasions. Arizona has some talented players in its secondary, but I wouldn’t expect them to do a great job on Justin Jefferson and company.

The Vikings don’t have a great rushing matchup either. Aaron Jones just put together a great game against Chicago, but the Cardinals are tougher against the run. They just did a solid job on Kenneth Walker, so they should be able to handle Jones.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: The first thing I do whenever I evaluate any matchup against the Vikings is diagnose how effective the opposing quarterback is against the blitz. The Vikings blitz at the highest clip in the NFL under Brian Flores. While some quarterbacks are miserable against the blitz, Kyler Murray is excellent against it. Murray’s YPA actually rose last year when blitz compared to not blitzed. This year, his big-time throw pecentage is two percent higher (very significant) than it is when he’s not blitzed. Meanwhile, he drops by three points in turnover-worthy plays when blitzed.

Murray should have a solid performance, particularly when targeting Trey McBride. The Vikings haven’t been great against tight ends, or slot receivers for that matter, so perhaps we’ll get some Greg Dortch action as well.

While the passing game will work, the rushing attack doesn’t stand much of a chance. The last time the Vikings allowed more than 48 rushing yards to anyone was back on Oct. 24.

RECAP: It’s funny how games can flip on just a couple of plays. The Cardinals barely missed out on a couple of touchdowns last week. Had they converted on those, they may have beaten Seattle, and if they had, we wouldn’t be seeing this sort of a line shift. Arizona was +3 on the advance spread, and now we’re getting the full three at +3.5.

I still like the Cardinals, and I think they have a good chance of bouncing back off their loss to Seattle. The Vikings, meanwhile, haven’t had convincing victories recently. All four of their wins since losing Darrisaw have been against teams with losing record. The Colts, Jaguars, Titans, and Bears aren’t exactly this tough gauntlet. It’s fair to be skeptical of the Vikings and their 9-2 record because they haven’t defeated a winning team without Darrisaw.

Now, it’s not like Arizona is this great team, but it’ll give the Vikings tougher competition than they’ve seen lately. The Cardinals are especially appealing for that reason when combined with the extra half point, as well as the fact that the Vikings could be fatigued coming off an overtime victory.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Nothing stands out on Wednesday’s injury report. I don’t see much changing for me in this game.

PLAYER PROPS: Nothing stands out here, so I’ll pass on the props in this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: There are no significant injuries to speak of concerning this game. I’m actually going to drop the two projected units I had on the Cardinals because I don’t really have that strong of an opinion on this one.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps haven’t touched this game, and I have no interest either. I’m still leaning toward Arizona. You can get a clean +3.5 -110 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Cardinals.

The Vikings just won in overtime and had to travel.

The Spread. Edge: Cardinals.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Vikings -3.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Vikings -3.

Computer Model: Vikings -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.

Good lean on the Vikings.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 68% (98,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Kyler Murray is 18-9 ATS as an underdog.

Vikings are 46-37 ATS at home since 2014 (15-22 ATS since 2020).

Opening Line: Vikings -3.5.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Seahawks.

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NEW YORK OFFENSE: News released during the Jets’ bye week that Aaron Rodgers intends on playing elsewhere next season. We’ve heard about lame-duck coaches before, but lame-duck quarterbacks? That’s a new one.

Rodgers doesn’t project well in this game, though I don’t know if he’ll play well again this year. The Seahawks are 11th in pressure rate, so they’ll be able to rattle Rodgers. They also possess some talented cornerbacks who can stay with the talented receivers.

Rodgers would have been able to lean on Breece Hall earlier in the year. The Seahawks had one of the worst run defenses for a stretch, but Leonard Williams has been playing out of his mind since getting healthy after he was dealing with an injury in early October.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: It seems as though the Seahawks always have a chance to beat anyone as long as all three of their receivers are healthy. D.K. Metcalf missed some action earlier in the season, but perhaps that was a blessing in disguise because it allowed Jaxon Smith-Njigba to come into his own.

With Metcalf and Smith-Njigba performing on a high level, Seattle’s offense figures to be productive this week. That may sound confusing to anyone slightly familiar with the Jets secondary, but those very familiar with the Jets secondary know this is true. The Jets have three talented cornerbacks, but none of them are playing to their potential. D.J. Reed has been the best, but he’s missed too many tackles. Sauce Gardner has also missed plenty of tackles, and he’s been flagged for way too many pass interferences. And then there’s the usual terrific Michael Carter II, but he’s been awful this season.

The Jets didn’t need to suddenly struggle against the pass because they’ve been woeful to the run since the beginning of last season. That does not bode well for New York’s matchup against Kenneth Walker.

RECAP: Congratulations if you bet the Seahawks +1.5 before Week 12. We had a discussion about that look-ahead line on our show last week. We agreed that it was absurd that the Jets were favored yet again.

Well, that’s no longer the case. This spread has moved 3.5 points in Seattle’s favor, with the Seahawks now being favored by two. I’m wont to fade these overreactory line moves, but I think the oddsmakers finally got this one right. The Jets have loads of talent, but they’re the worst-coached team in the NFL. They never live up to their potential, so it was absurd to ask them to cover as a favorite against most teams. They’re now underdogs, but they still might have trouble beating the +2.

Unfortunatley, our line value is gone, so I think I may pass on this one as a potential wager. But that just might be the result of sticker shock, so I could see myself betting the Seahawks after thinking about it.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No D.K. Metcalf, Leonard Williams, or Tyler Lockett for the Seahawks in Wednesday’s practice. No Breece Hall or Tyron Smith for the Jets in Wednesday’s practice. Friday’s report will be huge.

PLAYER PROPS: Nothing stands out for me here either.

SATURDAY NOTES: Things looked bleak for the Seahawks on the injury report 24 hours ago. D.K. Metcalf, Leonard Williams, and Tyler Lockett were all considered questionable at best after being DNP in both practices. However, all three returned to Friday’s practice, and none have an injury designation. The sharps bet the Jets, perhaps thinking that these players would be sidelined. It seems as though the sharps were once again duped into taking the crappy Jets.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are all over the Jets, just as they are every week. I’m actually going to place one unit on the Seahawks. I know it’s not a big bet, but I’ve been so adamant about the Jets being a falling knife that I’ll be upset with myself if I don’t take advantage of it in some way. The best line is +1.5 -108 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Seahawks.

The Jets may quit.

The Spread. Edge: Jets.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Jets -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Jets -1.5.

Computer Model: Jets -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.

Everyone abandoned ship.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 78% (96,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jets.

Jets are 23-10 ATS at home following a home loss in the last 33 instances.

Aaron Rodgers is 131-95 ATS since 2009.

Aaron Rodgers is 30-21 ATS as an underdog.

Aaron Rodgers is 40-26 ATS after a loss (14-8 ATS as a favorite of 7.5+).

Aaron Rodgers is 5-2 ATS as a home underdog.

Opening Line: Jets -1.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 37 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.