NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 13, 2024 – Late Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2024): 6-6 (-$375)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2024): 6-10 (+$325)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2024): 6-9-1 (-$1,395)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2024): 10-6 (+$55)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2024): 10-4-2 (-$5)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2024): 4-10 (-$1,110)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2024): 7-6-1 (-$555)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2024): 6-9 (-$660)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2024): 10-5-1 (+$1,405)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2024): 7-7-1 (-$975)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2024): 6-7-1 (-$1,275)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2024): 11-3 (+$2,020)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 6-6-1 (-$1,370)
2024 NFL Picks: 95-88-8 (-$3,915)

NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Go to Week 13 NFL Picks – Early Games

The Matchup. Edge: Buccaneers.

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TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: It wasn’t clear how much Mike Evans would play in his first game back last week, or how impactful he would be. Evans certainly had an impact, but he didn’t play his full complement of snaps. Of the 65 snaps Baker Mayfield played, Evans was on the field for 39 of them.

Evans will play more this week, and he’ll be able to take advantage of a defense that hasn’t been able to stop No. 1 receivers for most of the season. Carolina’s defense has been better lately because D.J. Wonnum has returned from injury to rush the passer. It would help Mayfield if he were to have Tristan Wirfs available.

Then again, Mayfield could just hand the ball off to his running backs. The Panthers also have a woeful run defense, so the Buccaneers should be able to take advantage of that. Bucky Irving played more than usual coming off the bye last week, which makes sense because he’s the team’s best runner. He’s also getting the post-bye rookie leap, so expect his strong play to continue.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Don’t look now, but Bryce Young is finally playing somewhat mediocre football! Young had the fourth positive-EPA start of his career against the Chiefs. He’ll look to make it five against the Buccaneers.

Young won’t be able to do this with Chuba Hubbard aiding him. The Buccaneers own a terrific run defense that thrives whenever Vita Vea is on the field. Then again, Hubbard didn’t have a good matchup heading into last week’s game either.

Even if Young doesn’t get much help from his rushing attack, he could have an opportunity to throw on Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers have maintained a poor pass defense recently, and with Adam Thielen back, Young has multiple viable receivers at his disposal. And unlike Tommy DeVito, Young is protected well, so the Buccaneers won’t be able to hound him in the backfield like they did to poor Tommy Cutlets.

RECAP: Last week, I discussed that there’s a huge disparity between how Todd Bowles handles veteran quarterbacks and inexperienced/bad signal-callers. Dating back to last year when the defense first declined, the Buccaneers have battled the following bad quarterbacks: Justin Fields, Desmond Ridder (twice), Will Levis, Bryce Young (twice), Spencer Rattler, and now Tommy DeVito. In those eight games, they’ve allowed an average of 14.5 points, and they’re 6-2 against the spread.

Here’s the question: Where does Young fit in now? Obviously, Young made the list last year, but he was horrendous as a rookie. He’s not quite good yet, but he has improved recently. I just don’t know how real that is. Young could continue to play on a mediocre level, but he could easily regress, especially against Bowles.

What really stands out to me is this spread. The Buccaneers are favored by the same number of points over the DeVito-led Giants as they are against the Panthers, which seems wrong. Carolina has been better lately, nearly taking down the Chiefs and beating the Saints and Giants. The Giants, by the way, were quarterbacked by Jones in that game, and as we surely know now, Jones is much better than DeVito. Thus, Carolina has to be the play as far as spread value is concerned, but I just don’t know how Young will hold up in this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Tristan Wirfs returned to a limited practice, so it looks like he has a chance to return to action. That would be a big deal against a Panthers defense that has an enhanced pass rush, thanks to D.J. Wonnum playing.

PLAYER PROPS: The Panthers are one of the worst teams in the NFL when it comes to defending tight ends. Cade Otton should bounce back from his one-catch performance last week. The best number is over 41.5 receiving yards -113 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Buccaneers will be without a couple of defensive backs, as Jordan Whitehead and Tykee Smith won’t be available. Still, it’s worrying that the Panthers’ Week 12 performance against the Chiefs isn’t nearly as impressive as we once thought because the Raiders just nearly beat the Chiefs in the same fashion in Kansas City.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’ve changed my pick to the Buccaneers. What we saw on Black Friday was a major stain on the Panthers’ close call against the Chiefs. Bryce Young had a good game, but Aidan O’Connell was even better. Todd Bowles is great against terrible quarterbacks, and Young is probably still terrible.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Tristan Wirfs is active, so that’s another reason to be on the Buccaneers. There’s some sharp action on Tampa Bay as well. The best line is a standard -6.5 -110 at many sportsbooks, including Caesars, BetMGM, and FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Panthers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Buccaneers -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Buccaneers -7.

Computer Model: Buccaneers -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.

Everyone is on the Buccaneers.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 85% (109,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.

History: Buccaneers have won 10 the last 12 meetings.

Road Team is 140-96 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -7.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Sunny, 52 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

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LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: Once upon a time, the Saints could have matched up well against the Rams – and not when Los Angeles was missing its two receivers. New Orleans had Marshon Lattimore in what was a solid group of cornerbacks, but with Lattimore traded and other corners injured, it’s going to be very difficult for the Saints to stop Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, especially the latter.

The Saints have to generate pressure on Matthew Stafford to disrupt these connections. However, the Saints have the eighth-worst pressure rate in the NFL, and the Rams’ offensive line is now healthy, aside from Rob Havenstein, who might have a chance to return to action.

Speaking of the offensive line, it should blast open some big holes for Kyren Williams. The Saints are on the outer edge of the bottom 10 of run defenses, so Williams also projects well for Los Angeles.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Unlike the Saints, the Rams generate plenty of pressure on the quarterback. While New Orleans is bottom 10 in pressure rate, the Rams are sixth. The Saints don’t have the best or healthiest offensive line in front of Derek Carr, so Carr figures to feel lots of pressure in this game.

With Carr dealing with tons of pressure in the pocket, he won’t have the luxury of delivering deep throws to Marquez Valdes-Scantling once again in this game. Valdes-Scantling has been shockingly lethal in his previous two games, but he seems to be a regression candidate.

Perhaps Carr will aim to hand the ball off to his running backs and tight ends instead. Both Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill may project well solely based on what Saquon Barkley did on Sunday night. But despite Barkley’s great performance, the Rams still rank near the top 10 in rush defense. They just simply ran into a juggernaut.

RECAP: There’s suddenly some hype with the Saints. They’ve won two in a row, but the caliber of opponent must be considered. They beat the Falcons, but that was an Atlanta team that got blown out at Denver the following week. The Falcons even outgained New Orleans by 100 yards, so that victory wasn’t that impressive. The other win was over the Browns. The score was 35-14, but it was 14-14 in the fourth quarter before some late touchdowns where the Browns gave up because they didn’t feel like tackling Hill.

The Saints are moving up in class for the first time under their interim head coach. The Rams were just blown out on national TV, but that was against the powerhouse Eagles team. I love backing good teams coming off embarrassing losses, and the Rams, who rank around 10th in adjusted EPA, certainly qualify as a good team.

Another reason to back the Rams is that the Saints are coming off a win and a bye. Teams in this situation don’t cover at a .500 rate. That includes this season, with teams owning a 1-5 against the spread in this dynamic.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Rob Havenstein had a full practice on Wednesday, so it would be a huge upset if he were out again. The Saints, conversely, had two offensive linemen – Erik McCoy, Lucas Patrick – miss Wednesday’s practice, which is not a good sign coming off a bye.

PLAYER PROPS: The Saints are the worst team in the NFL when it comes to defending slot receivers. Cooper Kupp looks great in this matchup. The best number is over 65.5 receiving yards -115 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: Rob Havenstein has no injury designation, though Alaric Jackson missed every practice. Another player like that is Erik McCoy, the Saints’ best offensive player. He could be out/hindered with his groin, and the Saints will also be missing Lucas Patrick. The Rams remain a top play.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I still love the Rams. Let’s hope for Erik McCoy to be inactive.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Erik McCoy is out, which is huge because the Saints will have cluster injuries in the interior of the offensive line versus a great pass rush. Despite this, there was sharp money on the Saints for some reason, but only at +3. The best line is -2.5 -114 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Rams.

The Rams are coming off a blowout loss, while the Saints had a blowout win heading into their bye.

The Spread. Edge: Saints.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Rams -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Rams -2.5.

Computer Model: Pick.

The Vegas. Edge: Saints.

Lots of late money on the Rams.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 77% (88,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: .

Opening Line: Rams -3.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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BALTIMORE OFFENSE: A big mistake I made when evaluating the Ravens-Chargers matchup on Monday night was not factoring in the Denzel Perryman injury enough. I guess I thought the Chargers still had a great edge with their passing attack versus Baltimore’s secondary, but didn’t account for them holding on almost every play.

Perryman’s teams have a long history of struggling against the run when he’s sidelined. The Eagles won’t have such issues, and not because Perryman isn’t on their team. Philadelphia has the best ground defense in the NFL this year. It’s tough to truly stop Derrick Henry, but the Eagles should do a good job in restricting his production.

The Eagles also figure to clamp down on Lamar Jackson. They did a good job of containing Jayden Daniels, and while that’s not a true barometer, it is something. Also, the Eagles are getting great play out of their young cornerbacks, who should be able to limit the Baltimore receivers. Jackson will at least be able to target his tight ends, given that Philadelphia has been weaker to that position.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: While Lamar Jackson won’t be able to throw downfield as often as he would like, the Eagles should be able to attack in this manner. Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown have a dream matchup, after all.

By now, you know how bad Baltimore’s secondary is. The Ravens allow big plays to all passing attacks, provided those passing attacks aren’t self-destructing with holding calls and drops. The Eagles shouldn’t have this issue, especially if DeVonta Smith is able to return from his one-week hiatus. If not, Dallas Goedert can serve as a capable second option because Baltimore is woeful versus tight ends.

The Ravens are much better at defending the run than the pass under normal circumstances. However, they’re worse versus rushing attacks without Roquan Smith. The Chargers were well aware of this, and they were taking advantage of this liability with J.K. Dobbins until Dobbins got hurt. Saquon Barkley could have another great performance in the battle of the NFL’s two leading rushers.

RECAP: Some may say the Ravens won convincingly because they were up 30-16 before a garbage-time touchdown, but they were down 10-0 and up only 17-16 entering the fourth quarter. They ended up winning, but the Chargers crushed themselves with dumb mistakes, while the Ravens had to rely on converting three fourth downs.

The Eagles will put up a much better fight. Unlike the Chargers, they can stop the run, and they are less likely to shoot themselves in the foot with dumb mistakes.

I like the Eagles, but not enough to bet them at this number. I have some interest in teasing them up to +9.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: DeVonta Smith once again didn’t practice. Having Smith available would be significant this week because of how bad Baltimore’s secondary has been.

PLAYER PROPS: We know that the Ravens have a poor secondary. Top receivers burn them on a weekly basis. I don’t see why things would be different for Brown. The best number is over 88.5 receiving yards -112 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Ravens will have Roquan Smith back this week, but won’t have Kyle Van Noy, which is a huge loss. The Eagles may have DeVonta Smith, who was DNP-limited-limited. I still lean toward the Eagles.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: DeVonta Smith is unlikely to play, but I’d still lean toward the Eagles. I’m hoping for Smith to sit to help our Brown wager.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps haven’t taken a side in this game. DeVonta Smith is out, as expected. I would still lean toward the Eagles. If you want to bet them, the best line is +3 -110 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Eagles.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -3.

Computer Model: Eagles -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.

Good action on the Eagles.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 69% (5,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Eagles are 40-28 ATS as road underdogs since 2005.

Nick Sirianni is 3-6 ATS in his second consecutive road game.

Opening Line: Ravens -3.

Opening Total: 50.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 40 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

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SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: We have to begin with the 49ers because there are some injuries to discuss. First and foremost, there’s Brock Purdy, who missed last week’s game with shoulder soreness. We should have known that Purdy would be sidelined because Kyle Shanahan often lies about his players’ injuries. The latest we have from Shanahan is that everything went well for Purdy in a light throwing session. Knowing Shanahan, Purdy’s arm could have fallen off during the session.

Based on this spread, I have to believe that there’s a decent chance Purdy will miss this game. If so, that would devastating, especially if Trent Williams is sidelined as well. The entire offensive unit operates so much worse when Williams isn’t available. Also, consider that Williams may not be 100 percent if he returns to action.

Speaking of injured players, Christian McCaffrey doesn’t seem like quite himself either. McCaffrey is missing the explosive plays he used to generate, and the team’s red-zone offense hasn’t improved upon his return. The Bills are weak to running backs, both as rushers and receivers out of the backfield, but with McCaffrey not being quite right, the 49ers may not be able to take advantage of that liability.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The 49ers have to worry about Nick Bosa’s status as well. The elite edge rusher has missed the past game-and-a-half, and the defense has predictably looked much worse without him. San Francisco will need all hands on deck versus Buffalo.

Josh Allen is coming off a tremendous performance against the Chiefs. Allen has stated that he plans on running more often as the season progresses, and will do so in big games. This Sunday night affair against the defending NFC Champions qualifies as such. If Bosa is out or limited, the 49ers will have trouble containing Allen, so the MVP candidate will have another big game as both a passer and a rusher.

Allen’s primary target in addition to Khalil Shakir could be Dalton Kincaid. The 49ers have allowed significant production to tight ends and slot receivers lately, so those two could be primarily involved.

RECAP: It’s difficult to handicap this game at the moment because we don’t know Purdy’s status. What we do know is that Shanahan is completely untrustworthy when it comes to medical information. This is the guy who told us that McCaffrey was dealing with a calf issue before McCaffrey missed half the season with an Achilles.

I’m skeptical of Purdy playing in this game. Then, of course, there’s also Williams and Bosa. If all three are out, the Bills will look great. If all three play, the 49ers will provide great value at +7. Given the complete unknowns, this game is impossible to diagnose right now. I’m going to pencil in the Bills, but check back later or follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS/LOCKED IN: I’m posting this early because I wanted to lock in this pick. The 49ers are a mess. Matt Barrows reported that Trent Williams is using a knee scooter to get around the locker room because walking has been too painful for him. It’s unlikely that he’s going to play. Fred Warner admitted that he’s been playing through a fractured ankle. Nick Bosa didn’t practice Wednesday. Brock Purdy has a shoulder problem, so he’s either going to be out or hurt. There’s a good chance this line will skyrocket to -9.5 by kickoff, so I’m locking in -7 -104 at Bookmaker for five units. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: I don’t know what happened. We got a mostly great injury report favoring Buffalo, and yet the sharps took the 49ers on Friday afternoon. I presume this is because Brock Purdy was full in practice, but I don’t trust that. What I do trust is that the 49ers have declared Nick Bosa, Trent Williams, Aaron Banks, and Deommodore Lenoir to be out. Meanwhile, Matt Milano may return after practicing fully every day this week. Despite the sharp movement, I still love the Bills.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: Christian McCaffrey’s over receiving yards prop should hit. The Bills allow a lot of receiving yardage to running backs, and the 49ers figure to be trailing, so a hindered Brock Purdy will throw checkdowns to his running back. The best number is over 30.5 receiving yards -112 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

We’re going to throw the McCaffrey over receiving yards into a parlay with George Kittle over 47.5 receiving yards, Khalil Shakir over 55.5 receiving yards, and Dawson Knox over 25.5 receiving yards. The Bills tend to be weak against tight ends as well, though it should be noted that this wasn’t the case in the Chiefs game prior to the bye. The 49ers also struggle against tight ends. They can’t defend the slot well either. This $25 parlay pays $291.10 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: It seems as though the weather is overblown. It was bad in Buffalo last night, but I don’t even think there’s supposed to be much snow during the game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Brock Purdy and Matt Milano are both active, but one is likely much healthier than the other. The sharps were on the 49ers at +7, most likely because of a weather play, but other pro money has come in on Buffalo at -5.5 and -6. The best line is -6.5 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -6.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bills -3.5.

Computer Model: Bills -3.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Good amount of sharp action on the Bills.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 58% (85,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

Kyle Shanahan is 10-5 ATS in his second consecutive road game.

Opening Line: Bills -3.5.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Likely snow, 24 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Broncos.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Denver, home of stupid hippies who do nothing but smoke marijuana! In tonight’s game, the Denver Nuggets take on the Cleveland Indians. Guys, how many times do I have to say this? No one cares about this game except for those stupid hippies. One guy offered me a weed, but I told him that Mother said it’s the Devil. Why am I not in Baltimore broadcasting my Philadelphia Eagles? This is an outrage. I’m the head honcho, and I should get to broadcast my Philadelphia Eagles every week!

Emmitt: Thanks, Edward. As a far of two son, Emmitt the IV Jr. the VIII Von Smith Esq. Jr. III, and Emmitt Snow Jr., I has to teach my son a lesson when they was youngkin. That lesson was you can always get what you want. My trueborn son always ask for lolliplop and so I gived it to him every time and then he get a cavity and has to go to the dental. And my bastard son always ask to go north to the Great Wall of Japan so he can get to the Sisterhood of the Night’s Clock, or something of that nature, so I let him goed and now he stuck there forever for all time, but at least he have sexual with ginger spice.

Reilly: Emmitt, I hope Emmitt Snow Jr. brought a condom with him so he can wear it just in case next time he talk to girls in the Sisterhood because Mother said that not only can you get pregnant from talking to girls, you can also get a disease like AIDS, Gonodiarrhea, and Ebola.

Tollefson: Reilly, as someone who has gotten many diseases from his dirty female sex slaves, I can tell you that it’s not all bad. Sure, it burns when you pee sometimes, and occasionally blood comes out of your anus, but it’s totally worth it.

Reilly: Tolly, I just hope you don’t get pregnant as well from talking to these heathen girls. Speaking of, Charissa Thompson is with another foreign leader tonight! Foreign leaders are constantly joining Charissa to argue for their country hosting international games after Roger Goodell stated that he wants to double the number of international games. Charissa, take it away!

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Mike. John Elway is out for today’s game. What a bummer! Anyhoo, it’s time to welcome in our new foreign leader. You, sir, look very sketchy, especially when you were leering at that little girl. What’s your name?

Prince Andrew: Hark, I am Prince Andrew, Duke of York, and I am here to represent the crown. Not only that, but I am also here to represent the many Americans who have been persecuted since the election of the evil dictator Donald Trump. Many celebrities had to flee the United States since the convicted felon Donald Trump got elected. Brave patriots like Eva Longoria, Minnie Driver, Sharon Stone, and Ellen DeGeneres have all fled the country, while Robert De Niro, Cher, and Bruce Springsteen have all announced that they plan on leaving. It’s horrible that these poor celebrity patriots, who have done nothing wrong, have to flee the country. All because a convicted felon was elected. What happened to American democracy?

Charissa Thompson: Did you just say you’re Duke of New York? That’s pretty cool. But what does this have to do with hosting NFL games?

Prince Andrew: Now that some of the proud celebrity patriots have taken refuge with me, we can fill stadiums to capacity by having these celebrities convince the British people that they should go to games. We have also harbored persecuted people like Marlon Winters, Jose Hernandez, and Guillermo Ramirez, and we plan on courting Bill Gates with many children to play with, and they’ll all convince people to come. We’ll even have a Bring a Child to the Game Night. It won’t even have to be your child. It’ll be glorious.

Reilly: Hold on, this sounds like a great idea, Maybe New Daddy will bring me to the game! New Daddy, will- wait, never mind, he’s asleep. Let’s ask Camel Toe Harris instead. Camel Toe Harris, can you bring me to the England games as your child?

Kamala Harris: I grew up in a middle-class family, which was not top class or bottom class. It was middle class. Because it was in the middle. But I want to be clear. Anyone who wants condoms should get condoms. Someone mentioned condoms before, and I think those are important. People in middle-class families don’t have access to condoms. But now they can be unburdened by what has been, just like I have with my husband leaving me. I’m looking for a new man, and I heard that there’s a head honcho here somewhere. Who’s the head honcho? I was not paying attention because I was being unburdened. Are you the head honcho, Donald?

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Kamala, I am the head honcho, because everyone voted for me, and no one voted for you, because you are a total loser and a total disgrace, and you are the opposite of a head honcho, you’re a foot honcho, and even that’s too high of praise, you’re the toe fungus honcho, and believe me, I know a lot about toe fungus, no one knows more about toe fungus more than Trump, no one has seen anything like it, and frankly, Sleepy Joe is also toe fungus, but Kamala is the darkest of toe fungus, even her husband, Douglas Emhoff, Little Dick Doug, we call him, Little Dick Doug is a total fraud and a total loser, and he doesn’t even want to be with Kamala, because she is the darkest of toe fungus, and believe me, Doug is dark toe fungus as well, but Kamala is the darkest toe fungus, and I’m the best toe fungus, at least that’s what I’ve been told, and no one has ever seen anything like it.

Wolfley: DONALD, ON MY HOME PLANET, TOE FUNGUS IS A DELICACY. THE DARKER THE BETTER. MY COUSIN, A PEAR WITH MICE FOR FEET, HAS OPENED UP A TOE FUNGUS RESTAURANT, AND BUSINESS IS BOOMING.

Reilly: Shut up, guys! Look, New Daddy is awake. New Daddy, can you bring me to the London games with Bill Gates and the boys he’s bringing to the game with him?

Jay Cutler: Wait, did I hear someone say something about condoms? That’s funny, condoms.

Reilly: New Daddy, focus! Please answer my question and stop talking about condoms!

Jay Cutler: Ha, you said condoms.

Reilly: New Daddy, enough about condoms! Please wear one so you don’t get pregnant when you talk to a girl, but stop talking about them!

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you want to talk about sex prevention, Kevin. You mentioned condoms, Kevin. Let’s say the word again, Kevin, because you sound very excited about them, Kevin. Condoms, Kevin. Something you’ll never use, Kevin. Let’s talk about other avenues, Kevin. There’s birth control, Kevin. Let’s chat about diaphragms, Kevin. How about sterilization, Kevin? Another thing is withdrawal, Kevin. What about abstinence, Kevin? Something you won’t have an issue with, Kevin, just like not needing condoms, Kevin.

Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS, YOU’RE NOT MAKING ME TAKE OFF MY CONDOM WHICH I NEED TO WEAR IN CASE A GIRL TALKS TO ME! YOU’RE NOT GOING TO TRICK ME INTO GETTING PREGNANT! We’ll be back after this!

DENVER OFFENSE: Bo Nix continues to defy the odds as one of the top quarterbacks in his class. Nix has improved most weeks, most recently putting together his best outing against the Falcons. Nix wasn’t quite as good versus the Raiders, but still led the team to a 29-point output.

The Browns may seem like a tough matchup, but Cleveland’s defense is ranked just 21st in adjusted EPA heading into this week. The best thing the Browns do on this side of the ball is generate pressure, but the Broncos have a stellar offensive line that should keep Nix mostly safe.

With Nix protected, he should be able to take advantage of Cleveland’s great liability on this side of the ball, which would be defending outside receivers. Courtland Sutton should continue to remain hot.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Nix should play well, but I can’t say the same about Winston. The Broncos have one of the better defenses in the NFL. Not only can they get after the quarterback like the Browns can; they can also defend outside receivers with Patrick Surtain II. I imagine Surtain will be on former Broncos receiver Jerry Jeudy, especially if Cedric Tillman is sidelined.

The Broncos are capable of clamping down on the run as well. This is bad news for Nick Chubb, who needs all the help he can get right now. Chubb scored twice last week, but really doesn’t look like his former self. His offensive line opened up big running lanes against the Steelers, but those won’t be there versus Denver.

The only area in which the Browns should have success is with Winston targeting David Njoku, given that the Broncos can be weak to tight ends. However, this shouldn’t be enough for consistent offensive production in this game, especially when factoring in the potential interceptions.

RECAP: I’ve said this several times this week and previous weeks as well: I love fading bad teams coming off wins. Bad teams have trouble sustaining success and end up losing their follwing game as a result.

I’m obviously referring to the Browns. They just won their second “Super Bowl,” beating the Steelers. Following their first “Super Bowl” win – their upset victory over the Ravens – they were dismantled by the Chargers. I believe they’ll be treated similarly by the Broncos.

It’s also difficult to ignore the quarterback versus defense matchup in this game. The Broncos have one of the best defenses in the NFL. They produce pressure at a top-five clip in the NFL. Winston has some great ability, but he can also destroy his team’s chances with horrible interceptions. Winston threw three of those against the Chargers and easily could have had a couple more. Winston is likely to give the ball away at a high rate in this game as well.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We’re going to have Andy Iskoe on the WalterFootball After Dark Show on Thursday night. I know he likes the Broncos a lot, so I’m curious to hear his analysis on the game!

SATURDAY NOTES: The Browns haven’t seen Jedrick Wills, Juan Thornhill or Cedric Tillman practice at all this week. Denver still looks great.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I think I’m going to lock in this pick at some point today. I’m worried about the line going to -6.5.

LOCKED IN: As promised, I’m locking in the Broncos because I don’t want to see this line go to -6.5. We’re actually getting a -5.5 line for -115 vig at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: I’m glad we locked this in yesterday evening because this line is now -6.5 in some places. The best spread I see is -6 -114 at BetRivers.

PLAYER PROP & SAME-GAME PARLAY: We’re going to be fading Nick Chubb tonight. Chubb had a fluky game against the Steelers because the Browns happened to be ahead. He’ll regress tonight against a defense that hasn’t allowed a 40-yard rusher in four weeks. The best number is under 51.5 rushing yards -110 at FanDuel.

We’re going to throw in the Chubb under in a same-game parlay, though I will say that a same-game parlay is difficult tonight because Sean Payton constantly shuffles in different personnel each week. We don’t even know who his starting running back is, for instance. We do know, however, that Courtland Sutton and DeVaughn Vele will be involved, so we’re going to put their over 66.5 and 38.5 yards in the parlay. We’re also going under on David Njoku (46.5). The Broncos have been outstanding against tight ends recently. This $25 parlay pays $252.08 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m very glad to have locked in the Broncos -5.5 -115 because every sportsbook now has -6.5 listed, thanks to sharp action moving this line in Denver’s direction. I still like Denver at -6.5, but keep in mind that six is the No. 3 key number in the NFL. The best line is -6.5 -102 at FanDuel.

The Motivation. Edge: Broncos.

The Browns are a bad team coming off a win.

The Spread. Edge: Broncos.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Broncos -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Broncos -7.

Computer Model: Broncos -8.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

Lots of money on the Broncos.

Percentage of money on Denver: 73% (248,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Broncos -7.5.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: Clear, 44 degrees. Light wind.