NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 13, 2023 – Late Games

Trevor Lawrence
NFL Picks (Preseason 2023): 4-7 (-$905)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2023): 10-6 (+$760)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2023): 8-7-1 (-$435)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2023): 12-4 (-$995)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2023): 6-8-2 (+$440)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2023): 5-9 (-$2,110)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2023): 6-8-1 (-$2,230)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2023): 7-6 (+$30)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2023): 5-10-1 (-$1,295)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2023): 5-9 (-$935)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2023): 7-6 (-$1,230)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2023): 5-9 ($0)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2023): 13-2-1 (+$1,960)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2023): 6-7 (-$115)
2023 NFL Picks: 99-98-6 (-$7,060)

NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Dec. 2, 4:00 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 13 NFL Picks – Early Games

NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 13 Late Games

Carolina Panthers (1-10) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-7)
Line: Buccaneers by 5.5. Total: 36.5.

Sunday, Dec. 3, 4:05 PM

The Matchup. Edge: Panthers.

Video of the Week: Here’s a video of some guy going to New York to ask pretentious New Yorkers for donations for Donald Trump’s legal fund:

I’m willing to bet none of those idiots can even articulate why they hate Donald Trump so much. I hope they enjoy the city that they voted for.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Axe Tepper can make the claim that he’s the worst owner in the NFL, but the Frank Reich firing was well deserved. Reich was guilty of terrible play-calling, all while failing to develop Bryce Young. Perhaps Young is a sunk cost, but Tepper needed to try something else to get the most out of his investment.

There’s some optimism for Young performing well in this game. The Buccaneers have the league’s worst pass defense, as Gardner Minshew just had his way with it last week. Tampa Bay already had its issues, but the team is missing lots of defensive personnel. The Buccaneers are particularly poor against slot receivers, which has to be music to Young’s ears because he’ll be able to target Adam Thielen successfully again.

The Buccaneers are much stronger versus the run than the pass, so I wouldn’t expect much out of Chuba Hubbard or Miles Sanders. This wasn’t the strength of the Carolina offense anyway.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Panthers have the worst record in the NFL, but I don’t think they’re the worst team. The reason is that their pass defense is pretty stout. Things changed following their bye when they had several players return from injury. Carolina has been much better versus aerial attacks since.

Only two teams surrender less production to outside receivers than the Panthers, with those being the Chiefs and Jets. The strength of the Buccaneers is Baker Mayfield’s ability to connect with Mike Evans, but the Panthers can slow down this element of Tampa’s offense.

The Panthers are much weaker to the run. Rachaad White has a positive matchup, but he’s not a great running back by any means. He’s not good enough to put a team on his back and win a game on his own, so Tampa Bay will be rather limited offensively.

RECAP: It sickens me to do this, but I’m going to be betting the Panthers this week. I know, I know, it’s usually dumb to bet the worst team in the NFL, but I have a couple of great reasons for doing so.

First, the Panthers have fired their head coach. Teams have reacted quite well to this in recent years. Since 2010, teams that have fired their head coach are 15-10 against the spread. This includes a win by the Colts with Jeff Saturday. Players typically respond well to this because they’re put on high alert and want to impress the new person in charge.

Second, this spread is just way too large. How can the Buccaneers be favored by around six when they’re one of the five worst teams in the NFL? Their defense is dreadful, while their offense’s strength – the two receivers – will be neutralized by Carolina’s stellar pass defense.

The Buccaneers are an easy fade in this spot, and Carolina can easy win outright. The six points may not even be necessary.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I was wondering if Tampa’s health would improve this week. Lavonte David and Jamel Dean were DNPs on Wednesday, so not yet, at least.

SATURDAY NOTES: Lavonte David, Jamel Dean and Devin White are all out. Meanwhile, the Panthers are getting back C.J. Henderson and perhaps Jaycee Horn. The injury report definitely favors the Panthers, who are still getting way too many points.

PLAYER PROPS: Adam Thielen hasn’t posted the best stats recently, but he’s gone up against teams that have played against slot receivers very well. The Buccaneers, conversely, are one of the worst teams at defending slot receivers. Thielen should go over rather easily. The best number is over 58.5 -114 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Ugh, we missed the +5 line, as this spread plummeted to +3.5 and then +3 in the wake of the Carolina news, where the Panthers are getting Jaycee Horn and some others back from injury. I’m going to lock this in now before we lose out on the viable +3.5 lines. The best spread is +3.5 -115 at PointsBet.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Locking this pick in was probably the right move, but it didn’t turn out to be necessary. The best line is still +3.5 -115 at PointsBet, followed by +3.5 -118 at Bookmaker. The sharps are all over Carolina.

The Motivation. Edge: Panthers.

The Panthers have fired their head coach.

The Spread. Edge: Panthers. Calculated Spread: Buccaneers -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Buccaneers -5.5.

Computer Model: Buccaneers -2.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

Lots of action on the Panthers.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 79% (45,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Panthers.

  • History: Buccaneers have won 8 the last 10 meetings.
  • Road Team is 128-89 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.
  • Buccaneers are 38-69 ATS at home in the previous 107 instances.
  • Opening Line: Buccaneers -5.5.
  • Opening Total: 38.5.
  • Weather: Chance of thunderstorms, 78 degrees. Light wind.

  • Week 13 NFL Pick: Panthers 20, Buccaneers 14
    Panthers +3.5 -115 (4 Units) – PointsBet — Correct; +$400
    Under 36.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Player Prop: Adam Thielen over 58.5 receiving yards -119 (1.5 Units) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$180
    Buccaneers 21, Panthers 18

    San Francisco 49ers (8-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (10-1)
    Line: 49ers by 3. Total: 47.5.

    Sunday, Dec. 3, 4:25 PM

    The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

    The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are complete. They may return in the future, but I had to stop them for now. Besides, I wrote a similar-type book is called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:

    How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen

    Oh, and my other book is still available as well:

    A Safety and a Field Goal

    In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

    SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Christian McCaffrey was terrific on Thanksgiving. He ripped through Seattle’s defense like it was a unit comprised of tissue paper. McCaffrey can make the case to be the MVP this year, which is rare for a non-quarterback to be able to do so.

    McCaffrey’s MVP campaign, however, could take a hit in this game. The Eagles have one of the best run defenses in the NFL, so they’ll restrict McCaffrey from dominating on the ground. It must also be noted that the Eagles are about league average at allowing receiving yardage to running backs and tight ends – two areas the 49ers love exploiting the most. McCaffrey and George Kittle could have an ordinary performances for other running backs and tight ends, respectively, but that would be well below standards for them.

    The Eagles are at their weakest against wide receivers. This obviously bodes well for Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel. However, the 49ers love to feed off the play-action they’re able to achieve via McCaffrey, so it’s not like they’re going to have an extremely explosive aerial assault versus Philadelphia.

    PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Eagles aren’t the only team in this game that surrenders lots of production to wideouts. The 49ers do as well. In fact, San Francisco allows even more of an output to opposing outside receivers. Philadelphia has given up the third-most, while the 49ers are right ahead of them, only behind Washington.

    The 49ers can typically neutralize their poor play at cornerback by generating tons of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. That problem in that regard in this matchup is that the Eagles have a stellar offensive line, so they’ll be able to shield Jalen Hurts, especially if Lane Johnson is able to return to action this week. Hurts will be able to light up San Francisco’s cornerbacks by targeting A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith extensively.

    One other thing to note is that like the 49ers, the Eagles won’t be able to run the ball at all. Both the Eagles and 49ers are in the top four of surrendering the least yardage to running backs.

    RECAP: I thought the public would be shocked to see the 49ers as a small favorite in Philadelphia, and that they would be enticed to bet the Eagles as a home underdog. I was completely wrong, as the public has been betting the 49ers at a three-quarters clip. The sharps, conversely, have been on the Eagles.

    This may surprise you because I’ve been so anti-Philadelphia all year, but I’m on the Eagles as well. I think Philadelphia matches up extremely well with San Francisco. The 49ers want to run the ball with McCaffrey more than anything, yet there’s no team better against the rush than Philadelphia. Meanwhile, the cornerbacks are the weakness of the 49ers defense, and Philadelphia can obviously exploit this with Brown and Smith.

    But what about the NFC Championship revenge, you ask? I think that’s neutralized, at the very least, by the Eagles having a chip on their shoulder. That chip will be Philadelphia playing for respect as a home underdog to the 49ers. We saw the Eagles rally around being home dogs during their 2017 playoff run, and I believe we may see something similar this time. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if we see dog masks once this game is complete.

    The one argument against the Eagles is that the 49ers have had extra time to prepare, while Philadelphia played a tough battle against the Bills in the pouring rain. If this were truly a short week for Philadelphia, I’d be more concerned, but I don’t think the three extra days will benefit the 49ers enough for me to side with them.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’s amazing how many people aren’t even giving the Eagles a chance. Three-quarters of the public bets are on the 49ers, and everyone in Tuesday’s chat thought I was nuts for liking the Eagles!

    SATURDAY NOTES: Both teams have injuries. Arik Armstead is questionable, but barely practiced all week. The Eagles will be missing Zach Cunningham, Justin Evans and perhaps Fletcher Cox. I still like the Eagles, who have the motivational edge as being home underdogs.

    PLAYER PROPS: This will surprise people, but the 49ers have allowed the second-most production to outside receivers in the NFL. The overs on A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith look nice, especially with Smith, whose number is much cheaper. Smith has gone off recently, thanks to Dallas Goedert’s injury. I could see the 49ers bracketing Brown like they did with Calvin Ridley and then allowing Smith to easily go over the 58.5 yards. The best vig is -114 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The +3 lines are disappearing, as the sharps are coming in on the Eagles. I’m going to lock this in now as well. The best line is +3 -112 at DraftKings. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s a +3 -110 available at Bovada. If you don’t want to bet at a shady sportsbook, you can get +3 -115 at PointsBet, Caesars, BetMGM, and FanDuel. The sharps are on the Eagles.

    The Motivation. Edge: Eagles.

    The Eagles will be mad about being home underdogs.

    The Spread. Edge: 49ers. Calculated Spread: 49ers -5.

    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -1.5.

    Computer Model: 49ers -4.5.

    The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.

    No one wants to bet the Eagles as home underdogs?

    Percentage of money on San Francisco: 75% (93,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

  • Brock Purdy is 15-3 SU, 12-6 ATS.
  • Opening Line: Eagles -2.5.
  • Opening Total: 46.
  • Weather: Rain, 54 degrees. Light wind.

  • Week 13 NFL Pick: Eagles 27, 49ers 24
    Eagles +3 -112 (3 Units) – DraftKings — Incorrect; -$335
    Over 47.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Player Prop: DeVonta Smith over 58.5 receiving yards -114 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Correct; +$100
    49ers 42, Eagles 19

    Cleveland Browns (7-4) at Los Angeles Rams (5-6)
    Line: Rams by 4. Total: 40.5.

    Sunday, Dec. 3, 4:25 PM

    The Matchup. Edge: Browns.

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    CLEVELAND OFFENSE: The poor Browns can’t settle on a quarterback. They decided on Dorian Thompson-Robinson in the wake of Deshaun Watson’s injury. Thompson-Robinson won a game against the Steelers, but then suffered a concussion against Denver’s tough defense the following week.

    Phillip Walker is likely to start this game. This is a much easier matchup than the one Thompson-Robinson endured. Whereas the Broncos are second in defensive EPA, the Rams are just 19th. They have a coupe of weaknesses, namely their inability to defend tight ends and outside receivers. This happens to be the strength of Cleveland’s aerial attack, as Walker will focus on getting the ball to Amari Cooper and David Njoku.

    It’s not all bad for the Rams on this side of the ball. They’ve been mostly stout against the run this year, so I wouldn’t expect much out of Jerome Ford, who has been a major disappointment lately.

    LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: The Rams scored 37 points last week, so I imagine the public will be eager to back them this Sunday. The problem with that is that the Rams will no longer be battling the Cardinals. Arizona’s defense is dreadful, while Cleveland ranks as a top-three unit in the NFL.

    The Rams want two things to happen on this side of the ball. They want to establish Kyren Williams so Matthew Stafford can utilize play-action. They also want to target the slot, with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp operating there. The problem with this is that the Browns have one of the top run defenses in the NFL. Williams won’t have nearly as much success this week.

    Making matters worse for the Rams, the Browns have been excellent at defending slot receivers this year. They’re also stout versus tight ends, so Tyler Higbee won’t be scoring two touchdowns again.

    RECAP: This spread is quite the overreaction. The Rams were -1 on the advance line, yet that ballooned to -5 before some sharp action on Cleveland dragged it down to -3.5. A three-point adjustment, going through the primary key number of three, is still way too much of an adjustment for a win over the terrible Cardinals.

    The Browns seem to be the right side. By selecting them, we’re getting the much better defense with more than a field goal. Backing Walker will be a concern for some, no doubt, but I don’t have any issues siding with a backup quarterback against a non-elite defense. In fact, we’ll see another example of this a bit later.

    As for now, I’ll be betting a 3-4 units on Cleveland. I love the matchup and line value, as the advance line was the correct one; I made this Rams -1.5, so we’re getting an 10.08-percent marginal difference with the Browns. In other words, if I’m right about the true line being Rams -1.5, then we have a 60.08-percent chance of covering (50 plus 10.08).

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I was trying to think of what to call the phenomenon where a favorite of about -5.5 or -6 sees the line drop against them despite public action going their way. For some reason, the term “sinking turd” popped into my head. Sinking turds are often good fades, and the Rams are a classic example of a sinking turd.

    SATURDAY NOTES: This spread had been dropping all week, but there was finally some push-back at Rams -3.5, perhaps because Denzel Ward has been ruled out. I still like the Browns, but Jacob Camenker brought up a great point during our Friday call regarding the Supercontest. Myles Garrett is banged up, so what if he’s not 100 percent? If I knew Garrett were out, I wouldn’t have any interest in Cleveland, so if Garrett is pretty limited, it would be like he’s out anyway. Also, it’s possible that Joe Flacco could be just as horrible as Nick Foles was in two games last year. I’m going to cut my expected bet in half.

    PLAYER PROPS: The Rams have been getting crushed by tight ends all year. David Njoku has gone over 50 receiving yards in five of his previous six games, and yet the prop here is only 46.5 yards! The best vig is -114 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m not sure if I’m going to bet this game because I’m worried about Myles Garrett’s health and Joe Flacco potentially being terrible like Nick Foles was last year. We’ll see, it might be a small wager.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s sharp money on the Browns. I think you can make a case to bet them, but if Myles Garrett isn’t 100 percent, and if Joe Flacco sucks, the Rams will cover. The best line is +3.5 -108 at Bookmaker.

    The Motivation. Edge: None.

    No edge found.

    The Spread. Edge: Browns. Calculated Spread: Rams -1.5.

    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Rams -1.

    Computer Model: Rams -2.

    The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

    The public is on the Rams.

    Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 68% (33,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: None.

  • Opening Line: Rams -4.5.
  • Opening Total: 38.5.
  • Weather: Dome.

  • Week 13 NFL Pick: Browns 20, Rams 17
    Browns +3.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Under 40.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Player Prop: David Njoku over 46.5 receiving yards -114 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$115
    Rams 36, Browns 19

    Kansas City Chiefs (8-3) at Green Bay Packers (5-6)
    Line: Chiefs by 6. Total: 43.5.

    Sunday, Dec. 3, 8:20 PM

    The Matchup. Edge: None.

    A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called My Son’s First Trick-or-Treat.

    KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Despite the two-touchdown win against the Raiders, the Chiefs continued to have their issues on this side of the ball. That would be dropped passes, as there were several more versus the Raiders after the team had six drops in the preceding game against the Eagles.

    It’s hard to count on the Chiefs meeting expectations as long as they continue to drop passes. They also have a tough aerial matchup in this contest. Green Bay will likely have Jaire Alexander and De’Vondre Campbell back from injury following the mini-bye, and the team tends to get plenty of pressure on the quarterback. They can slow down Kansas City’s passing attack just enough.

    The Chiefs, however, will have a big edge on this side of the ball, and that would be via the ground game. Isiah Pacheco is coming off a strong performance, and that is likely to continue against the Packers, who have been woeful versus the run for years.

    GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Speaking of teams doing poorly against the run, the Chiefs also struggle versus the rush. They surrendered a long touchdown to Josh Jacobs last week, allowing the Raiders to go up 14-0. As with Alexander and Campbell, Aaron Jones might be back after the team’s long hiatus. If so, he could have an excellent performance.

    Jones will be needed for the Packers to keep pace with the Chiefs, who have an excellent aerial defense as well. Like Green Bay, Kansas City puts lots of pressure on opposing passers. The Packers pass protection used to be great, but that was back when David Bakhriari was protecting the blind side.

    It’s tough to know what to expect from “No Cookie” Jordan Love. He’s had his struggles this year, but he has performed much better recently. This includes Thanksgiving, when he fired multiple bombs to Christian Watson, who finally came alive after a dreadful year. Watson won’t do much versus Kansas City’s excellent outside corners, but the Chiefs give up tons of production to the slot. Thus, Jayden Reed could have a solid performance.

    RECAP: Wow, this spread is begging the public, including idiots like Football Capper and Jack Peters, to back the Chiefs. “All Kansas City needs to do is win by a touchdown? Easy peasy lemon squeezy!” is what they’re probably saying to themselves. This is like one of those promos sportsbooks run to get people to sign up. “If Patrick Mahomes throws for more than one yard, win $200!” Insert Spiderman meme.

    Don’t fall for the trap. The Packers are the right play, and not just because it’s an obvious trap. The Packers are a legitimate team. They had some ugly losses, but the metrics love them. They’re the eighth-ranked team according to net EPA, as they’re 13th in both offense and defense. The Chiefs are only three spots ahead, so this spread should be closer to Kansas City -3 rather than -7. The EPA metrics say the Chiefs should only be -2.5.

    Also, it’s hard to imagine the Chiefs being overly focused for this non-conference foe. They had the Eagles two weeks ago, then a divisional rival. After this game, they take on the Bills.

    It’s still early in the week, but the sharps are betting the Packers. I’m not sure if they’re looking at the spread being off, or the possible look-ahead scenario, or perhaps both.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Chiefs aren’t quite a sinking turd because the line hasn’t crossed +6, but if it does, they will qualify as such as well. By the way, both Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon missed Wednesday’s practice, so I don’t know who’s going to run the ball if they’re both out. Patrick Taylor, perhaps?

    SATURDAY NOTES: I’m disappointed in the Packers. I was hoping Jaire Alexander and De’Vondre Campbell would be off the injury report after a mini-bye, but they’re both questionable after being limited all week. I was hoping Aaron Jones would be back, but he’s out. I was hoping Eric Stokes would play off injured reserve, but he’s doubtful. And to add to the injuries, Jayden Reed may not play! Reed had the best matchup of all the Packers wide receivers. Given this horrible injury report, I’m not going to bet the Packers. Let’s see what happens with the inactives before kickoff.

    PLAYER PROPS: I like Jayden Reed’s over 43.5 receiving yards (-115), which you can find at Caesars. However, Reed is questionable heading into this game. I’ll let you know what I’m doing with this prop on Sunday evening.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: We’re waiting on the inactives here because Green Bay’s injury report was very discouraging.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps continue to bet the Packers, though the sharps are having a very bad day, losing with the Redskins, Eagles, and Browns. The sharp money is curious because while Jayden Reed will play, Jaire Alexander will be out. If you still want to bet Green Bay, the best line is +6 -110 at BetMGM. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

    The Motivation. Edge: Packers.

    The Chiefs take on the Bills next week.

    The Spread. Edge: Packers. Calculated Spread: Chiefs -6.5.

    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -7.

    Computer Model: Chiefs -2.5.

    The Vegas. Edge: Packers.

    Slight lean on the Chiefs.

    Percentage of money on Kansas City: 62% (365,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Packers.

  • Patrick Mahomes is 79-21 SU, 54-45 ATS (42-33 ATS when not favored by double digits.)
  • Patrick Mahomes is 6-10 ATS as a road favorite of 7+. ???
  • Packers are 8-5 ATS as home underdogs since 2007.
  • Opening Line: Chiefs -6.5.
  • Opening Total: 42.
  • Weather: Slight chance of rain, 34 degrees. Light wind.

  • Week 13 NFL Pick: Chiefs 22, Packers 19
    Packers +6 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Under 42.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Packers 27, Chiefs 19

    Cincinnati Bengals (5-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (8-3)
    Line: Jaguars by 10. Total: 41.

    Monday, Dec. 4, 8:15 PM

    The Matchup. Edge: None.

    This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

    Reilly: Welcome to the city of Orlando, where tonight, the Cincinnati Reds take on the Orlando Magic. Guys, I don’t why stupid people are watching this game tonight when my Philadelphia Eagles aren’t involved. I’m not going to watch this game, so no one else should either. Besides, we have bigger fish to fry!

    Emmitt: Thanks, Emporer Gestahl. My wife, Emma Smith III the LVII Jr. Sr. Jr. Esq. forgetted to pack my lunch, so I am very happinessment that we frying fish. I will take five piece of fish with a side of two piece of fish, thank you.

    Reilly: Emmitt, that’s just a figure of speech, but I don’t blame you for not knowing it because I just learned it in class. It was part of the lesson where I learned what Mother’s sixth-favorite female character on Matlock was. I hope I pass the test, or I may not be able to talk about these games in great depth with you guys after being grounded!

    Tollefson: Tell me about it, Reilly. I’m on the verge of failing the class. Your mom said I need to start focusing on my studies rather than kidnapping women to cook and clean naked for me. I love enslaving women, but she’s got me thinking that my education is very important.

    Reilly: You’re right, Tolly. Now, let’s get to tonight’s lucky lady. Which lucky lady is going to be my girlfriend so we can prove Mother’s friends at the hair salon wrong because they said that I can’t date a singer as hot as Taylor Swift? There were no candidates from Cincinnati or Orlando, but the producers came up with a gem for me. And whoa, she has a sexy name, too! Ladies and gentlemen, Miss Dolly Parton!

    Dolly Parton: Hello there, shonny, do you like my sexy Dallas Cowboys cheerleader outfit?

    Reilly: Oh wow, Mother has the same outfit, and she wears it around the house on Saturday evenings and every third Wednesday. Guys, my palms are sweating, and there’s something happening with my no-no special place.

    Dolly Parton: How ’bout I do a little dance for you, shonny? After I change my adult diaper of course. Has anyone seen the restroom? Ol’ Dolly needs some new Huggies.

    Adam Schefter: Dolly, breaking news, the bathroom is contaminated, for I used it without first inserting more Covid boosters into my anus, Dolly. It’s shameful to admit this, Dolly, but sources tell me that I forgot my Covid boosters at home, and I will now hide in a corner so I don’t get infected with the deadly Coronavirus disease. Back to you, Kevin.

    Reilly: You needed sources to tell you that you forgot your Covid boosters at home? OK, weirdo. Anyway, I’m excited about my new potential girlfriend. Senator president John Feasterman, you are a smart, functional man to have been elected to the Senate. What do you think of my new almost girlfriend?

    John Fetterman: All your base are belong to us. Bomb somebody set up. The bomb. It was set up. The bomb wasn’t set up. Does the man drink the tea, or does the tea drink the man? Don’t forget about the chocolate chip cookies. The lumberjacks at the cookies and the corn chowder. Lumberjacks are good with the holy water.

    Reilly: Wow, I can see why people voted for you, John Festerman! Our country is better in your hands! OK, Dolly Parton, he’s a real test: If Nick Foles and Dak Prescott walked into the room right now, which do you think would be the better quarterback? Regardless of whether or not Nick Foles is in a bikini of course.

    Dolly Parton: Now, I don’t think grown men should be wearing bikinis, shonny, that reminds me of a story a long time ago. Back in my day, we used to walk to school uphill both ways in five feet of snow both ways down in ol’ Pittman, Tennessee, down where the barnyard animals are friendlier than the city folk, yeehaw, who are just as angry as a rhinoceros wearing a tutu to a square dance recital, now what we were talkin’ about ’round these parts?

    Reilly: Dolly, it appears as though you’re mind isn’t very sharp. Let’s get an opinion from a guy who has it all together. President Joel Bident, you are very sharp because only someone very sharp would be able to secure the most votes ever when his opponent also had the most votes ever. Please share with us how you came to be so lucid all the time.

    Joe Biden: Now look here, you rhinoceros-wearing tutu dancin’ recital, when I was growing up, and my girlfriends were around my age for the only time in my life heh heh heh I lived down in ol’ Tennessee, down in the farm, an Afrian American farm that was own by the roaches- I mean African Americans. I was the only baby born in the rhinoceros, I mean the African American church farm, Pale Ol’ Joe they used to call me, those roaches- I mean, those proud African Americans who have those schools that are jungles. Then you go down to your local 7-11, and you better be able to speak Indian, because only those guys run those 7-11s, and Pale ‘Ol Joe knows all the languages, especially Indian because I grew up in an Indian reservation, the only one man to do so. Teepee Ghost Joe Biden, they used to call me, on the count of me being white, and the chief’s daughter became my girlfriend, she was three, and I was 30 heh heh heh, now if you’ll excuse me, my bum bum is wet, so I have to go to the situation room.

    Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe is wrong, wrong, excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe just said that he grew up on an Indian reservation, which is a total lie from Sleepy Joe, because I know all the Indian chiefs from the reservations, and they all know me, and they all love me, and I talk to them all the time, and I say, “Chiefs, we had the best economy anyone has ever seen or could have ever imagined, please tell me that your precious casinos, which were passed down from generation to generation, are operating at peak capacity,” and all the chiefs – trust me, they love me, and all the chiefs will tell you so – they would all say, “Mr. President, sir,” and I’d interrupt them, and I’d say, “Please, call me Runs Country Like Gazelle, all the Native Americans do it, except for Elizabeth Warren, I call her Pocahontas, what a nut job, but please call me Runs Country Like Gazelle, because we run our country like a gazelle,” and they’d say, “Mr. Runs Country Like Gazelle, you are the greatest president ever, sir,” and I’d say, “I knew I was great, but I didn’t know I was best, but if you say so, frankly, I can’t argue against that,” so all the Indian chiefs love me, except for Pocahontas, who is a total disgrace and a total nut job.


    Reilly: Shut up, idiots! Dolly Parton, we need a firm answer! Is Nick Foles better than Troy Aikman!?

    Dolly Parton: Oh, pixie sticks, decidin’ between those two fine gentlemen is like choosin’ between washin’ down a cow who just had her utters jacked up, and a jackrabbit geared up to take first place at the square dancin’ festival, but I love my Cowboys, and I love wearin’ my Cowboys cheerleadin’ uniform, so I’m gonna have to go with the Troy guy, hey have any of you sheen my teeth, I must have dropped them shomewhere.

    Reilly: Oh boy, it’s just not meant to be. I can’t date a Cowboys fan. Mother wears that cheerleading outfit to punish me, but it sounds like you do it for fun, which is no bueno in my book. Sorry, I mean no good, because bueno is Spanish, and Mother says the Spanish language is the Devil. New Daddy, what was it like to play for the Broncos and Bears, and then finally have a son who is an Eagles super fan?

    Jay Cutler: I have a son?

    Reilly: Uh, yes! It’s me, New Daddy!

    Jay Cutler: Oh, so that’s why you’re living with me. I just didn’t put two and two together because I didn’t care enough to do so.

    Reilly: New Daddy, as you know, we just learned two and two is four the other day after the History of Matlock class.

    Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you’re talking about math problems, Kevin. You say two and two is four, Kevin, and you’d be right, Kevin, but let me do you one better, Kevin. Two and three is five, Kevin. Let’s keep going, Kevin. What about three and three, Kevin? That’s six, Kevin. How about three and four, Kevin? That’ll be seven, Kevin. How about we try four and two, Kevin? That’s six, Kevin. Same as three and three, Kevin. That’s because we added one to two to make three, Kevin, and we subtracted one from four, Kevin, to make three, Kevin. How about we try something harder, Kevin? Let’s go with five and five, Kevin. That’s 10, Kevin. OK, last one, Kevin. What do you call Kevin plus any woman, Kevin? That’s zero, Kevin, because anything and Kevin is zero, Kevin.


    JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: This current Jaguars regime hasn’t beaten any elite teams yet, but they’ve won some big contests like the play-in game versus Tennessee last January, the ensuing playoff game against the Chargers, and last week’s battle for the AFC South against the Texans. Trevor Lawrence was excellent in that game, torching the Texans secondary with ease, as he hit Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk for big gains.

    Lawrence figures to once again have success in this matchup against Cincinnati’s pass rush can rattle him. Jacksonville doesn’t pass protect very well, so the offense can be disrupted if the opposition can flood the backfield. The Bengals struggle in most facets on this side of the ball, but they can get after the quarterback with Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard.

    The Jaguars can keep the ball out of Lawrence’s hands by establishing Travis Etienne. The talented back had issues finding running room last week, but this is a much easier matchup for him, as Cincinnati has been gashed on the ground most weeks.

    CINCINNATI OFFENSE: There was some optimism from Bengals fans and bettors last week that Cincinnati wouldn’t be totally dead with Jake Browning at quarterback. Browning threw a touchdown to Drew Sample to take the lead, but the Bengals being ahead didn’t last very long. Browning struggled to move the ball most of the afternoon last week.

    Despite what we saw last week, there’s a better chance Browning will look functional for the first time as a pro. He has struggled mightily thus far, but he has seen action against the Ravens and Steelers. Those teams rank sixth and 12th in defensive EPA, respectively. Jacksonville is 25th. The Jaguars have been torched by most aerial attacks they’ve battled this year, so there’s a very real chance Browning will have success moving the chains by connecting with Ja’Marr Chase and perhaps Tee Higgins. Jacksonville has been very poor versus outside receivers.

    One thing the Bengals won’t be able to do on this side of the ball is run the ball. While the Jaguars are putrid versus the pass, they’re extremely stout versus the run. Joe Mixon might have some success as a receiver out of the backfield, however.

    RECAP: Anyone who backed the Bengals last week probably won’t have a desire to do so this Monday night. This, however, would show a lapse in logic. Browning was in a terrible spot last week against a great defense that would undoubtedly give him fits. This matchup is much easier for him.

    Also, this spread is much higher! The Steelers and Jaguars have nearly the same record, yet the Bengals are +8.5 in this game after being only +1.5 versus Pittsburgh. I know they were at home against the Steelers, but it’s not like Jacksonville has a great home-field advantage.

    I love the Bengals in this spot. This spread is a huge overreaction to what we saw last week; the EPA metrics say Jacksonville should only be -6.5. Also, the Jaguars could be a bit flat after such a big win over Houston. I can’t imagine they’ll take Cincinnati seriously. Meanwhile, the Bengals need to win to keep their season alive, so they’ll be bringing the kitchen sink.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’s not surprising to see sharp money come in on the Bengals. There’s no reason the Jaguars, a team with a poor defense and an injured left tackle, should be favored by this many points over anyone.

    SATURDAY NOTES: Someone commented below that this pick will be risky if Tyson Campbell returns for Jacksonville. First of all, every bet is risky. Second, even if Campbell plays, there’s no guarantee he’ll be 100 percent.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Tyson Campbell and Travis Etienne are both questionable after being limited in practice all week. It sounds like Etienne will play. Campbell is probably 50-50, but he may not be 100 percent off his injury anyway. Meanwhile, Tee Higgins will be back for Cincinnati.

    MONDAY AFTERNOON NOTES: I’m going to lock in this pick now. Sharp money is coming in on Cincinnati, so I don’t see this line going above +10. We’re already starting to see some +9.5s pop up. You can still get +10 -110 at BetMGM, DraftKings, and PointsBet. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

    PLAYER PROPS: I love Evan Engram tonight. Tight ends have destroyed the Bengals, and Engram as cleared 4.5 receptions in all but three games this year. The best line is over 4.5 -150 at BetMGM. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

    MONDAY NIGHT PARLAY: By request, here’s the Monday night parlay. I’m going with Bengals +10, Evan Engram over 4.5 receptions (both explained above), Travis Etienne over 66.5 rushing yards (Cincinnati is very weak to the run), and Ja’Marr Chase over 59.5 receiving yards (Jacksonville is poor to outside receivers.) A $25 wager for this pays $300. I made this parlay at Caesars.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: There isn’t as much sharp action on the Bengals as there was this afternoon, but the pro money is still shaded toward Cincinnati at +10. The best line is +10 -102 at Bookmaker. You can get +10.5 -114 there, but I’d rather take the +10 -102.

    The Motivation. Edge: Bengals.

    The Jaguars just won their biggest game of the regular season, while the Bengals are fighting for their lives.

    The Spread. Edge: Bengals. Calculated Spread: Jaguars -8.5.

    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Jaguars -7.

    Computer Model: Jaguars -6.5.

    The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.

    No interest in the Bengals after their loss to the Steelers.

    Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 67% (499,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Bengals.

  • Jaguars are 60-102 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.
  • Jaguars are 14-28 ATS as home favorites since 2008.
  • Opening Line: Jaguars -7.
  • Opening Total: 41.
  • Weather: Cloudy, 60 degrees. Light wind.

  • Week 13 NFL Pick: Jaguars 23, Bengals 20
    Bengals +10 (5 Units) – BetMGM/DraftKings/PointsBet — Correct; +$500
    Over 41 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Player Prop: Evan Engram over 4.5 receptions -150 (1 Unit) – BetMGM — Correct; +$100
    Parlay: Bengals +10, Evan Engram over 4.5 receptions, Travis Etienne over 66.5 rushing yards, Ja’Marr Chase over 59.5 receiving yards (0.25 Units to win 3 Units) – Caesars — Incorrect; -$25
    Bengals 34, Jaguars 31

    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

    NFL Picks Week 13 – Early Games

    Seahawks at Cowboys  |  Chargers at Patriots  |  Lions at Saints  |  Falcons at Jets  |  Cardinals at Steelers  |  Colts at Titans  |  Dolphins at Redskins  |  Broncos at Texans  | 

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