NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 13, 2023 – Early Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2023): 4-7 (-$905)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2023): 10-6 (+$760)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2023): 8-7-1 (-$435)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2023): 12-4 (-$995)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2023): 6-8-2 (+$440)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2023): 5-9 (-$2,110)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2023): 6-8-1 (-$2,230)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2023): 7-6 (+$30)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2023): 5-10-1 (-$1,295)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2023): 5-9 (-$935)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2023): 7-6 (-$1,230)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2023): 5-9 ($0)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2023): 13-2-1 (+$1,960)
2023 NFL Picks: 93-91-6 (-$6,945)

NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Dec. 2, 4:00 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 13 NFL Picks – Late Games

The Matchup. Edge: Cowboys.

Week 12 Analysis: We finally had a breakout week – one that would have been so much better had the Raiders not failed to cover despite going up 14-0 as nine-point underdogs. I’ll once again break down all the 3+ unit picks each week:

Cowboys, 4 units (win): This game was close for a while, but the Cowboys made it look easy in the second half.

49ers, 5 units (win): An even easier win on Thanksgiving. What a great day!

Dolphins, 3 units (win): The Dolphins covered even if you remove the insane Hail Mary pick-six, so we can’t claim that we were lucky in this game.

Steelers, 3 units (win): Only a fool would bet a backup quarterback against a top-10 defense…

Raiders, 4 units (loss): …Which is what I did here. Oops. The Raiders went up 14-0 as nine-point underdogs, but I think we had the wrong side here, so I’m not going to complain about being unlucky. I don’t know why it didn’t dawn on me that betting Aidan O’Connell against the Chiefs defense would be such a bad idea. I apologize for the poor selection.

I want to include a new segment here, where I list “obvious” picks in hindsight that I did not bet:

Broncos -2.5: Here’s another backup quarterback versus a top-10 defense. I don’t know why I was so scared to back the Broncos. Sure, they sucked as favorites earlier in the season, but that didn’t mean that they would continue to suck as favorites.

If you haven’t visited the site in a while, you may have noticed the new look. Yes, after nearly two decades, we’ve finally re-designed our site to be more modern. This was not done on a whim, but rather out of necessity because of what occurred during the 2023 NFL Draft. Our site crashed during the entire first day of the draft, which was disastrous for our revenue stream because we make more money during the draft than any other time. The site crashed because a line of code conflicted with the old format of the site, so we had to transition to this new look.

Because we lost so much money during the draft, I want to point out that you can really help support the site by paying for the ad-free version of it at the top. It’s $7.99 per month, but you’ll get a super-fast site with no ads. If you don’t want to pay, please spread the word about the site through word of mouth. That would also be a big help!

DALLAS OFFENSE: To say that the Cowboys have been absolutely dominant at home would be an understatement. They’ve somehow averaged 41 points per game as hosts, as they are coming off a 45-10 blowout victory against the Redskins. Of course, it’s fair to consider the caliber of opponent Dallas has faced at home. The team’s opponents have been the Jets, Patriots, Rams, Giants, and Redskins. None of those teams have winning records, but two of the opponents – Jets, Giants – are in the top 10 of defensive EPA.

Seattle will be the first team currently over .500 the Cowboys will battle as hosts, but the defense isn’t great. The Seahawks are 28th in defensive EPA, so the Cowboys should be able to move the chains effectively. Seattle has two defensive liabilities the Cowboys can expose. The Seahawks struggle against tight ends and allow tons of receiving yardage to pass-catching backs. Jake Ferguson should be able to rebound from his Thanksgiving dud, while Tony Pollard will be able to pick up where Christian McCaffrey left off later that night.

The Seahawks have their strengths on this side of the ball. They have excellent cornerbacks to limit Brandin Cooks and Dallas’ other outside receivers. CeeDee Lamb also has an unfavorable matchup, but he’s good enough to overcome that.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: Speaking of rough matchups, it’s going to be tough for the Seahawks to score once again. Seattle mustered just six offensive points against the 49ers, and they may have a similar output in this game.

The problem for Geno Smith last week was the pressure. The 49ers rattled him with a relentless pass rush, and Dallas is capable of doing something similar. Smith should at least be healthier than he was on Thanksgiving night, though there’s no guarantee of that happening.

It didn’t help Smith that he couldn’t lean on his rushing attack against San Francisco’s elite defense. He’ll have the same problem versus the Cowboys, who have surrendered the eighth-fewest rushing yards to running backs this year. They don’t allow much receiving yardage to players at that position either.

RECAP: I’m going to keep fading Seattle until people stop overrating them. The Seahawks lost to the Rams even though Matthew Stafford was clearly not 100 percent because of his thumb. They failed to beat up on the horrible Redskins after an embarrassing loss. They were trashed by the Ravens. They barely squeaked by the Phillip Walker-led Browns at home. They would have beaten Arizona by only seven if it weren’t for a fake punt by the Cardinals. This Seattle team is incredibly overrated, and we even have the metrics to back us up, as Seattle is ranked a shockingly low 31st in net adjusted EPA.

I think this game will remind of us Baltimore-Seattle, where the Ravens ripped the Seahawks to shreds, 37-3. The Cowboys are much better than Seattle, and they’ll be motivated to catch the Eagles for the divisional lead. This spread is way shy of what it should be, which is -13 (per my numbers) or -14 (according to EPA).

Our Week 13 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I still love Dallas. The injury report favors the Cowboys as well, as Kenneth Walker is out, while Leonard Williams is questionable. Dallas, on the other hand, has no injury designations.

PLAYER PROPS: Tony Pollard has become a greater part of the passing game recently, logging 11 targets in the past two games. This is bad timing for the Seahawks because they allow the sixth-most receiving yards to running backs. I like Pollard’s over receiving yards. The best number is over 19.5 -110 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s no sharp action to speak of in this game. I still love the Cowboys. The best line is -9.5 -108 at Bookmaker.

The Motivation. Edge: Seahawks.

The Cowboys play the Eagles next week, but this is a nationally televised game that they probably won’t overlook.

The Spread. Edge: Cowboys.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cowboys -13.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -6.5.

Computer Model: Cowboys -14.

The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.

Tons of action on the Cowboys.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 79% (525,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.

Dak Prescott is 37-26 ATS at home.

Opening Line: Cowboys -7.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Chargers.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The Chargers always seem to find new and creative ways to lose. Their strategy against the Ravens was to mimic what the Jets did against them a few weeks ago. The Jets, as home underdogs, committed four turnovers in an embarrassing Monday night loss, and that’s what the Chargers did as home dogs versus Baltimore. The result was a 20-10 defeat.

The Chargers should be able to have better luck if they are more careful with the ball, but we’re talking about the Chargers here, who lost to the Packers during the prior week because of countless drops. Something always goes wrong with this miserable team. Better coaching would help.

As for this matchup, the Chargers would love to attack the Patriots with Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler. As it so happens, the Patriots are far worse versus slot receivers than the Chargers’ previous two opponents. While the Packers and Ravens are in the top 10 of limiting slot receivers, the Patriots allow the seventh-most production to the position. Allen should be able to thrive as a result. As for Ekeler, New England is in the middle of the pack when it comes to surrendering receiving yardage to running backs, so the dynamic back should have an average game.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: It’s currently unknown who will play quarterback for the Patriots. Mac Jones has been benched in each of the past two games, and deservedly so for his horrible turnovers. Bailey Zappe has struggled as well. Will Grier would have been the optimal choice, but Bill Belichick cut him for some reason. Life is tough without Tom Brady.

Regardless of who starts for the Patriots, it’s unlikely that they’ll be able to take advantage of the Chargers pass defense, which is rather weak. The Chargers surrender the fifth-most production to outside receivers, but who exactly on New England will be able to exploit this liability? There’s Demario Douglas, but he plays in the slot, and the Chargers are decent versus slot receivers.

The Patriots would love to run the ball to limit Jones’ turnovers. However, the Chargers have been stout against the rush after a horrible start in that regard. They’ll surrender decent passing yardage to Rhamondre Stevenson, but that’s really the only edge they have in this game.

RECAP: This feels like going back to an abusive relationship, but I considered betting the Patriots for several units this week. My reasoning would be that this spread is ridiculous. The Chargers, according to EPA metrics, are the 19th-best team in the NFL. They’re not good enough to be six-point road favorites over any team, except for maybe the Panthers. The Patriots don’t have that much better of a record compared to Carolina, but they’re much higher than the Panthers in the metrics. In fact, they’re 23rd in net EPA because of their defense. In other words, there’s just a four-spot difference between these teams. How does that warrant one team being a road favorite of six? It doesn’t make sense.

Also, the metrics don’t even account for Joey Bosa’s absence. Bosa being out makes the Chargers a far worse team, yet that’s not being factored into the spread at all. Everyone is focused on the Patriots losing to the Giants, but they seemingly forget that New England had Indianapolis on the ropes in Germany during the prior game. The Colts are considered better than the Chargers in the metrics, so if the Patriots could nearly defeat the Colts, why can’t they do the same to the Chargers?

So, why am I not betting the Patriots? Because this reminds me of Titans-Panthers last week. Tennessee was favored by a ridiculous amount over anyone, yet I backed them because they had a severe matchup edge. The Patriots match up very poorly against the Chargers, so there’s a chance that the road favorite wins easily. Then again, not having Bosa will make a back-door cover possible for New England, so it’s not like I’ll be lining up to bet the Chargers either.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Some sharp action has come in on the Patriots, dropping this line to +5.5. I think this sharp action was related to Keenan Allen missing Wednesday’s practice, but I don’t know if it’s very serious.

SATURDAY NOTES: Demario Douglas is out, which would normally have me excited to fade the Patriots, but there’s an issue with the Chargers. That would be Keenan Allen’s status. Allen is questionable after being DNP-DNP-limited in practice this week. Even if he plays, he may not be 100 percent, so it’s tough to back the Chargers at -5.5 as well.

PLAYER PROPS: Revenge alert! I like Hunter Henry to go over 25.5 receiving yards. He’s eclipsed that mark in three of his previous five games, but more importantly, the Chargers surrender the third-most receiving yardage to tight ends. The best number is over 25.5 -120 at PointsBet.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Keenan Allen is active, which is obviously necessary to bet the Chargers. It’s just unknown how healthy he is. The best line is -4.5 -108 at Bookmaker. There’s no sharp action on this game.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Patriots.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chargers -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chargers -4.

Computer Model: Pick.

The Vegas. Edge: Patriots.

Slight lean on the Chargers.

Percentage of money on San Angeles: 67% (139,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

Justin Herbert is 10-16 ATS as a favorite of -3 or more.

Bill Belichick is 35-17 ATS after losing as a favorite (13-3 as an underdog.)

Opening Line: Chargers -4.5.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Rain, 46 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Lions.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides were 32-35-1 last year, and they are now 21-17 ATS.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

49ers -7

Dolphins -9

Chiefs -9

I don’t know if this was a ploy to get people to spend money on Cyber Monday, but all three of the heavily backed public teams covered.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Lions -4

Dolphins -9.5

Jaguars -8

Cowboys -9

49ers -2.5

It’s funny that all three Thanksgiving favorites plus the winner of the Black Friday game are getting a ton of action.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: We have to begin with the Saints offense because the Lions defense was so bad on Thanksgiving. Detroit surrendered deep completions to Christian Watson of all people, as “No Cookie” Jordan Love torched them relentlessly. How embarrassing.

Luckily for the Lions, they won’t have to worry about any explosive New Orleans receivers. Chris Olave suffered a concussion last week and will almost certainly miss this contest. Rashid Shaheed got banged up, so his status is in doubt as well. Michael Thomas was already out. Who do the Saints have left at receiver? A.T. Perry, Lynn Bowden, and Keith Kirkwood? Who are these guys?

The Saints would love to run the ball with Alvin Kamara so that they don’t have to rely on such horrible receivers, but that won’t be possible versus Detroit. Only two teams (Jaguars, 49ers) have surrendered fewer rushing yards than the Lions this year. Kamara will still be productive as a receiver out of the backfield, but that will be New Orleans’ entire offense.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions obviously have the better receiving corps in this game. Amon-Ra St. Brown is an incredible player, but he was limited more so than usual last week by the Packers, who have been stellar against slot receivers this year.

The Saints, conversely, have struggled to cover slot receivers this season, so St. Brown is in for a huge performance. The Saints just suck against the pass in general because their star cornerback, Marshon Lattimore, is sidelined with an injury. Detroit’s passing attack as a whole will be lethal in this game.

The Lions, of course, will want to establish David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. This isn’t the easiest matchup in that regard, but it’s not a difficult one either. We just saw Bijan Robinson have an explosive performance, so Detroit’s two-headed ground attack should fare well.

RECAP: The Lions were so disappointing on Thanksgiving. I knew they had defensive problems, but those were really emphasized against the Packers.

The good news for Detroit is that it had more than a week to correct its problems, some of which should be able to be remedied. This is especially true against the Saints, who have so many injured players. Lattimore’s absence has hurt the defense, and now Olave and Shaheed presumably being sidelined will worsen the offense.

Given the state of the Saints, there’s no question that the Lions are the better team. They’re not as good on the road, but it’s not like they’ll be asked to play outside. They’ll be quite comfortable in the Superdome, where they shouldn’t have any issues dispatching the walking wounded Saints.

I’m picking the Lions to cover, but won’t be betting this game because I’m not in love with the line. I need to see Detroit’s defense improve before I can consider betting them above -3 on the road.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Some potential good news for the Saints: Chris Olave was limited in Wednesday’s practice. Most players who have suffered concussions have missed the following game this year, but there have been exceptions. Olave being limited right away is obviously a positive.

SATURDAY NOTES: There’s a bit of good news for the Saints. Chris Olave practiced fully on Friday, so it sounds like he’ll be able to return from his concussion. The problem is that there are a bunch of other Saints who will be sidelined. This includes Marshon Lattimore, Rashid Shaheed, Pete Werner, Marcus Maye, and perhaps Cameron Jordan, who was DNP in practice all week. I like the Lions a lot, and I will be betting them. I’ve come to realize that NFC South teams in non-divisional games should be faded. NFC South teams outside of the division are 10-24 against the spread this year, and really 9-25 ATS if you didn’t get stuck with the closing line in the 49ers-Buccaneers game. The NFC South was 17-27 ATS the year before as well. Meanwhile, the Lions, who are much healthier, will be eager to redeem themselves from an ugly loss on Thanksgiving.

PLAYER PROPS: I feel like I’m missing something with this prop, but Amon-Ra St. Brown’s receiving yardage number is 81.5. He’s gone over that number all but three times this year. The Saints have a good defense, but they are weakest to slot receivers. The best number is over 81.5 -115 at BetMGM. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Chris Olave will play, which is a bummer for the Lions pick. I still like Detroit, but I’ll make this a two-unit pick. The best line is -4 -105 at Bovada. There’s no sharp action on this game either.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Saints.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Lions -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Lions -3.

Computer Model: Saints -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Saints.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 73% (184,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Lions -3.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s something concerning the Chiefs-Raiders game where I pointed out that a nine-point underdog blew a 14-0 lead:

In fairness, Jack Peters – if that’s his real name – has a point. In the past, I made the exact play to bet the Chiefs moneyline when I had the Raiders versus the Dolphins as my pick of the month. I think juggling two kids and Reignmakers has made me much worse at in-game betting.

Here’s someone else commenting about game:

Also in this slew of bets is a -150 vig wager on +3.5. That won, but man, he’s going to go broke betting picks with -150 vig. That means he has to hit his selections with 60-percent accuracy!

He made another post:

I don’t understand this. He bet Chiefs -9 -110 somewhere and then -9 -126 somewhere else? Why didn’t he just bet more at the book that had -9 -110?

Oh, and here’s the return of our low-IQ friend, John Capricotti, who is here to tell us that spreads don’t matter – just bet the team you think will win regardless of the spread!

If there’s ever a person who fit the Bottomless Pit meme perfectly, it’s John Capricotti:

NEW YORK OFFENSE: It didn’t take Jets fans very long to yearn for the days of Zach Wilson. That’s how much of a disaster Tim Boyle was in the Black Friday game. Boyle threw 12 touchdowns compared to 26 interceptions at Connecticut and Eastern Kentucky, so he had no business being in the NFL, even as a third-string quarterback. In fact, I don’t think he’s even qualified to be a water boy.

Granted, Boyle had a difficult matchup last week against Miami’s underrated defense, but it’s not like this environment will be any easier for him. The Falcons have stellar cornerbacks and are able to severely limit outside receivers as a result. Chris Olave went off last week before suffering a concussion, but the Saints put him in the slot where the Falcons struggle to defend. I’m not sure the Jets are cunning or smart enough to do that with Garrett Wilson. Atlanta is also weak versus tight ends, but it’s not like Tyler Conklin is this great chess piece Nathaniel Hackett will figure out to use.

The Jets’ best bet of moving the chains in this game is via Breece Hall. The Falcons are above average against the run for the season, but they’ve been worse in that regard since losing Grady Jarrett to injury. Hall is capable of going the distance whenever he touches the ball, so perhaps he’ll have some explosive plays in this game.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: Speaking of struggling against the run, that’s the only area in which the Jets defense struggles. The Jets have allowed the sixth-most rushing yards to running backs this year, and they surrender a ton of receiving yardage to the position as well.

This seems like a dream matchup for the Falcons, who are finally giving Bijan Robinson the appropriate number of touches. However, there’s a chance all won’t go well for the Falcons. The Jets will put extra men in the box because they won’t have to respect Atlanta’s passing attack. They’ll dare Desmond Ridder to beat them.

Ridder versus the Jets secondary … who do you think has the advantage there? Drake London took advantage of Marshon Lattimore’s absence last week, but he’ll have no such reprieve in this game. He and the other Atlanta receivers will be smothered by the talented New York defensive backs, so Ridder will have quite the problem moving the chains.

RECAP: Betting the Jets is a tough pill to swallow, but hear me out. The Jets have battled the Bills and Dolphins the past couple of weeks – two teams that are vastly superior compared to them. Before that, they lost to the Chargers and Raiders, but outgained them in both net yards and yards per play. All four of these teams are rated higher in the metrics than the Falcons. In other words, this is the Jets’ easiest matchup since taking on the Giants back in Week 8.

With that in mind, the Jets seem like the obvious play in this game. The Falcons are not a good team and do not deserve to be three-point road favorites in this matchup. Atlanta has won two games by more than three points all year, and if you remove all the games they’ve had against the dreadful NFC South, they’d have a 2-6 record. They lost at Arizona. If they couldn’t beat the Cardinals on the road, they’re certainly no lock to defeat the Jets.

Fortunately, we’re getting some great line value with New York. Everyone is down on the Jets because they’ve seen them fall flat on their face against far superior opponents. The Falcons are a big step down in competition, so they should be able to win this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m hoping for a viable +3 line, as there’s obviously a big difference between +2.5 and +3. Aaron Rodgers, by the way, was limited in Wednesday’s practice. He won’t play this week, but perhaps his potential return in the near future will motivate the team.

SATURDAY NOTES: Again, NFC South teams out of the division are 10-24 against the spread this year. There’s no reason for the Falcons to be favored at the Jets when they lost to the Titans and Cardinals on the road. The Jets are even getting Mekhi Becton back after he was out last week, so that makes them even more appealing.

PLAYER PROPS: Here’s another AFC East tight end I like. The Falcons have allowed every tight end they’ve faced this year to look like Tony Gonzalez. Tyler Conklin has gone over 22.5 receiving yards in three of his previous four games, so he should be able to make it 4-of-5. The best number for this prop is over 22.5 -114 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I was hoping we’d see a viable +3, but I can’t find one. The sharps bet the Jets earlier in the week at +2.5, but there hasn’t been too much pro movement on this game. The best line is +2 -110 at several sportsbooks, including Caesars and BetMGM. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Jets.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Pick.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Falcons -1.5.

Computer Model: Jets -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on New York: 54% (140,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jets.

Jets are 22-9 ATS at home following a home loss in the last 31 instances.

Opening Line: Falcons -2.5.

Opening Total: 35.

Weather: Rain, 52 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Steelers.

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PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Sixteen points may not seem like much was accomplished in firing Matt Canada, but that couldn’t be further from the truth. The Steelers accumulated 400-plus net yards against the Bengals and outgained their opponent for the first time all year.

This is an even easier matchup for the Steelers, so perhaps we’ll get a 30- or 40-point offensive onslaught from them. OK, maybe not, but I expect the Steelers to move the chains well throughout the afternoon. They can do this primarily with their two backs. Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren have both played well recently, and that should continue in this very favorable matchup against an Arizona defense that had no answer for Kyren Williams last week.

The Cardinals are also very weak at stopping outside receivers. As it so happens, the Steelers have two talented ones to exploit this matchup. At least one of Diontae Johnson or George Pickens will have a great performance.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: It was surprising that the Cardinals couldn’t keep pace with the Rams last week. They scored an early touchdown, but did nothing afterward until garbage time. The Rams don’t even have a good defense, so the lackluster offensive performance was shocking.

This is a tougher matchup for the Cardinals overall, as the Steelers rank 12th in defensive EPA. Pittsburgh has been better against the run since Cameron Heyward has gotten into shape a couple of weeks after his return, so James Conner will once again struggle to find room on the ground.

Kyler Murray would love to connect with Marquise Brown and Trey McBride in this contest, but it’ll be difficult for him to do so. The Steelers are top 10 at defending both outside receivers and tight ends, so Murray’s options will be limited. Murray can always scramble, but Pittsburgh tends to play scrambling quarterbacks well as a result of building a defense to limit Lamar Jackson. In the one meeting earlier this year, Jackson was limited to 45 rushing yards.

RECAP: I’m no fan of betting the Steelers as big favorites. They often find ways to win ugly games, prompting Mike Tomlin to have the same press conference he delivers several times every year. “We just win ugly. That’s Steelers football, and I won’t apologize for that.” He literally says this multiple times per season.

If you want data behind this, the Steelers are 35-44 against the spread as favorites of more than four since the lockout. They’re just poor in this role, so you need a good reason to bet them as substantial favorites.

Arizona’s incompetence could be that reason. The Cardinals shockingly were not competitive whatsoever against the Rams. However, I have to believe that they’ll play better in regression to the mean, and Murray could have them in a position to secure a back-door cover. I’m going to back the Cardinals for that reason, as well as the fact that the Steelers have to play in four days, but I won’t be betting them.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: All of Arizona’s top play-makers missed Wednesday’s practice, with Marquise Brown, Trey McBride and Michael Wilson all sitting out. Two of them could easily return to practice later in the week and play, but this is a situation definitely worth monitoring.

SATURDAY NOTES: If you’re thinking about betting the Cardinals, just take a look at their injury report. It’s a mess. I’m going to switch my pick to the Steelers, but I can’t bet them as a 6.5-point favorite.

PLAYER PROPS: Najee Harris has been a disappointing player as a former first-round pick, but his overall numbers are not that bad. He’s gone over the 54.5-yard rushing prop in three of his previous four games by a decent margin. I like him to be 4-of-5 in that regard because Arizona allows the second-most rushing yardage to running backs this year. The best number is over 54.5 -110 at FanDuel. I also considered overs for George Pickens and Diontae Johnson, but I like this one more because the Steelers could be well ahead in the second half. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have played both sides of this, taking the Steelers at -5.5 and the Cardinals at +6.5. I still have no interest in this game. If you want to bet the Steelers, you can get -6 -110 at PointsBet.

The Motivation. Edge: Cardinals.

The Steelers play another game in four days.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Steelers -7.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Steelers -3.

Computer Model: Steelers -6.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Steelers.

The Cardinals are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Arizona: 63% (169,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Steelers -5.5.

Opening Total: 39.5.

Weather: Rain, 55 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Titans.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Props page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: The Titans are relatively easy to figure out. If they can run the ball, they’ll have a good chance of winning. If they can’t run the ball, there’s no shot of them being victorious. Their great running matchup last week was why I picked them as 3.5-point favorites even though I hated the line value.

This is another favorable matchup for Derrick Henry, as the Colts have a very weak run defense with Grover Stewart suspended. Indianapolis nearly lost to the Patriots – yes, the Patriots – in Germany because they couldn’t stop Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott. If Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe didn’t make such bone-headed decisions, the Colts would be 5-6 right now rather than 6-5.

Will Levis will be able to benefit from Henry’s great running. With more time in shorter down-and-distance situations, he’ll be able to connect with DeAndre Hopkins, who will be matched up against backup cornerbacks as a result of the Indianapolis starters being injured.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Colts obviously want to establish the run as well. I say “obviously” because they paid Jonathan Taylor a ton of money. The problem here is that Tennessee isn’t nearly as soft to ground attacks as the Colts are. The Titans don’t have a stalwart run defense, but they’re pretty decent against opposing backs, so they should be able to limit Taylor a bit.

Gardner Minshew will have to do more than the Colts would like, which means we’re due for another multi-turnover game. Minshew has been a huge disappointment in that regard. It was anticipated that he would be a solid game manager, but all he’s done is toss the ball to the other team.

Despite the impending turnovers, Minshew will have some success moving the chains. The Titans have a miserable secondary that can’t stop outside receivers at all. This greatly benefits Michael Pittman Jr.

RECAP: I picked the Titans last week over the Panthers because they had some key matchup edges, and I’ll be doing the same again this week. Tennessee wants to run the ball, and Indianapolis can’t stop the rush at all. Meanwhile, the Colts would like to do the same, but Tennessee is decent versus ground attacks.

This dynamic might explain why the Titans have dominated this rivalry. They’ve won six of the eight previous meetings. Also, Mike Vrabel is a home underdog in this situation, which makes Tennessee even more appealing.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharp money is on the Titans at the moment. I can’t say this is much of a surprise, given Tennessee’s strong matchup edge and Jonathan Taylor’s thumb injury.

SATURDAY NOTES: The sharp money on the Titans has slowed down a bit, but the pros still like Tennessee. There’s nothing of note from the injury report.

PLAYER PROPS: This is our first under of the week. I don’t think Zack Moss gets to 78.5 rushing yards. Everyone is going to play him in DFS, and he seems certain to bust. The Titans have an excellent run defense. Except for one instance, which involved a fluky long run by Jaylen Warren, the Titans haven’t allowed any runner to eclipse 65 rushing yards since early October. The best number is under 78.5 rushing yards -115 at BetMGM. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps were on the Titans earlier in the week, but there’s not much pro action to speak of in this game. The best line is +1.5 -110 at PointsBet.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Colts -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Pick.

Computer Model: Colts -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Colts.

Lots of money has come in on the Titans.

Percentage of money on Tennessee: 74% (169,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Titans.

History: Titans have won 6 of the last 8 meetings.

Mike Vrabel is 24-13 ATS as an underdog of 3+ points. ???

Opening Line: Colts -1.5.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 60 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: Dolphins.

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MIAMI OFFENSE: Tua Tagovailoa didn’t exactly put on a show on Black Friday. He threw for just 243 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. His team scored 34 points, but seven came on the insane Hail Mary pick-six, while another seven came on a late rushing attempt by Raheem Mostert.

Tagovailoa, however, was battling the best pass defense in the NFL. It’ll be from one extreme to the other because Tagovailoa will now be going up against the worst aerial defense in the league. No team has allowed more deep passes than the Redskins. They haven’t been able to stop anyone this year, with the exception of Mac Jones. They’ll stand no chance against Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

The Redskins are at least solid against the run. However, they can be beaten by receiving backs, as we saw with Tony Pollard’s receptions on Thanksgiving. De’Von Achane’s potential return will give Miami a boost in this matchup.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Something many have missed recently is that the Dolphins have improved by leaps and bounds on this side of the ball. They had a poor defense to start the year, but they were ranked in the top 10 even before they dismantled the Tim Boyle-led Jets offense on Black Friday.

The difference has been the health of the Miami secondary, which welcomed back Jalen Ramsey, Xavien Howard, Jevon Holland and DeShon Elliott, all of whom missed time at some point in the first half of the year. They’re all healthy now, so I don’t think the Dolphins will have issues containing Washington’s passing attack. The Dolphins also have the No. 6 pressure rate in the NFL, so they’ll be able to rattle Sam Howell, who takes way too many sacks.

The Dolphins figure to be weaker to the run than the pass, but they’re in the middle of the pack when it comes to stopping the rush. This won’t be a liability or anything, and it’s not like the Redskins will be able to run very much if they fall way behind.

RECAP: The Dolphins have been a front-running team all year, and that should continue in this matchup. They are one of the best teams in the NFL – I have them fifth in my NFL Power Rankings – while the Redskins have consistently been seeded in the bottom five because of their dreadful defense.

This is a lopsided matchup that should be a blowout. The Dolphins, who have nothing to look ahead to, should be focused enough to dismantle the horrible Redskins. Even better, this spread is completely reasonable. In fact, you could argue that it’s too short. My personal number for this game is Miami -13, so the Dolphins are actually a decent value despite the spread being so close to 10.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I wanted to lock in the Dolphins before the line moved to -10, but I wanted to see one injury report first. Miami’s entire team is limited or DNP. Seriously, go look at it. If things don’t improve, I would consider switching to the Redskins.

SATURDAY NOTES: Miami’s injury report isn’t as bad as it looked on Wednesday. The only real concerns are Terron Armstead (limited all week) and Jevon Holland (DNP-DNP-limited). With that in mind, I’m comfortable betting heavily on the Dolphins. Hopefully they don’t have a let down like the Cowboys.

PLAYER PROPS: Forget 66.5 receiving yards. Jaylen Waddle has eclipsed 110 receiving yards in two of his previous four games. Waddle had a slow start to his season because he was dealing with an injury, but he’s now 100 percent. He should dominate the Redskins, who allow the most production to outside receivers. The best number is over 66.5 receiving yards -115 at BetMGM. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Two major things. One, the sharps love the Redskins. If you’re concerned, note that they also loved the Redskins on Thanksgiving against the Cowboys, and we saw how that went. Washington could get a back-door cover, but the Dolphins have such a huge mismatch edge in this game. Second, there are two good options for the best line. You can get -9 -103 at Bookmaker or -8.5 -110 at both DraftKings and PointsBet. I’d rather have the -9 -103 because nine is the least-likely margin of any game between one and 11.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Dolphins.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Dolphins -13.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Dolphins -7.

Computer Model: Dolphins -7.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Miami: 56% (236,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Dolphins -8.5.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 58 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

HOUSTON OFFENSE: C.J. Stroud has been one of the hottest quarterbacks in the NFL in recent weeks. Meanwhile, Denver’s defense has been one of the most dominant stop units in that same span. Something has to give here in this intriguing matchup.

My bet is that Stroud falters a bit versus Denver’s defense. The Broncos just recently debacled Josh Allen, who then went on torch the Eagles. Plus, Stroud’s great performances came against some dreadful defenses like the Buccaneers, Cardinals, and Jaguars. Denver is a completely different animal. It has the personnel to clamp down on outside receivers, which is where Stroud likes to throw to when targeting Nico Collins and Tank Dell.

Then again, Denver’s defense has its faults. The Broncos have allowed more rushing yards to running backs than any other team in the NFL. They also surrender a ton of receiving yardage to backs, and they can’t defend tight ends either. Devin Singletary has shown that he can be productive with some quality performances in recent weeks, so perhaps he’ll thrive again. Dalton Schultz also figures to do well.

DENVER OFFENSE: It’s odd, but the Texans have really improved against the run. They used to be a prime target versus dominant rushing attacks, with Derrick Henry enjoying so many positive outputs against them. However, Houston just clamped down on Travis Etienne, which was not a surprise because the team has surrendered the sixth-fewest rushing yards to opposing backs this year.

Russell Wilson would love to capitalize on Javonte Williams’ great running like he did versus Buffalo a couple of weeks ago, but that won’t be possible. Wilson will have to do more on his own, which could be problematic against a Houston pass rush ranked in the top 10 of pressure rate.

The Texans are much weaker to the pass compared to the run. They just allowed Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk to torch them for big gains. They’re particularly weak to slot receivers, though Wilson doesn’t target Jerry Jeudy very much for some reason. Still, Courtland Sutton figures to have a strong performance.

RECAP: I don’t know what to make of this game. On one hand, the Broncos seem like a good fade after their victory over the Browns. They’ve been all the talk about how they’ve turned their season around since that 70-20 debacle. Now that they’re over .500, they have so many believers, and I’m sure many of them will want to bet the +3.5 line. On the other hand, you need a good reason to bet a -3.5 line because most games fall on three, and I just can’t come up with one. The Texans have been hot lately, but they’ve almost lost to the Buccaneers and Cardinals at home. There’s a legitimate chance that they’re overrated, even though the metrics say otherwise.

I’m going to side with the Broncos because I feel as though I can make a better case for them. However, I’ve gone back and forth on this so many times that it wouldn’t surprise me if I eventually fell on Houston.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Both Tank Dell and Dalton Schultz were two of the several Texans with DNP designations on Wednesday. We’ll see if things improve the rest of the week.

SATURDAY NOTES: Dalton Schultz is out, but Tank Dell was DNP-limited-limited in practice all week, so it appears as though he’ll be good to go. I still don’t know what to make of this game. I’ve heard good arguments for both sides.

PLAYER PROPS: Nico Collins has had some very easy matchups lately. This is a very difficult one, however, as he’ll see plenty of Patrick Surtain. The last time Collins had a tough matchup like this, he had a 4-30 line at Carolina. The best under is 62.5 -114 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Sharp money came in on Denver at +3.5, but not +3. You can find +3.5 -120 at Bookmaker and PointsBet. I’m going to put a unit on Denver at that price.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Broncos.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Texans -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Texans -3.

Computer Model: Pick.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.

Slight lean on the Texans.

Percentage of money on Houston: 60% (173,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

Russell Wilson is 34-16 ATS as an underdog.

Opening Line: Texans -3.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: Dome.