2010 NCAA Tournament Preview: ACC

Clemson (21-10)

WHY TO LOVE: Senior forward Trevor Booker is a very good player (15.3 ppg, 8.3 rpg). He’s joined by junior guard Demontez Stitt (11.2 ppg, 3.3 apg, 36.4 3PT).

The Tigers as a whole don’t shoot well from three-point range (33.5%), but they have three very solid shooters: Stitt (36.4), Andre Young (37.2) and David Potter (39.2).

Clemson surrenders just 64 points per game.

WHY TO HATE: Though they won at Florida State on Feb. 28, the Tigers aren’t impressive on the road. Their record is 5-6, and the other away victories were against N.C. State, UNC-Greensboro, Liberty and East Carolina. In other words, they violate Rule No. 4 of my NCAA Tournament Credo.

The Tigers play sloppy basketball, as they turn it over 14.8 times per contest.

Head coach Oliver Purnell has never won an NCAA Tournament game in his seven years at Clemson. He had 24-10 and 23-9 teams that lost in the first round. This is a violation of Rule No. 3 of my NCAA Tournament Credo.

THE VERDICT: I don’t think the Tigers win a game, and it’ll be a miracle if they make it out of the first weekend.
Duke (29-5)

WHY TO LOVE: Duke perhaps has the best trio in college basketball. Three players score at least 17 points per game: senior guard Jon Scheyer (18.9 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 5.2 apg), junior guard Nolan Smith (17.6 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 3.0 apg) and junior forward Kyle Singler (17.2 ppg, 6.8 rpg).

The Blue Devils shoot the three really well, hitting 38.9 percent as a team. Amazingly, four players nail at least 38 percent of their long balls: Scheyer (39.9%), Smith (40.4), Singler (38.6) and freshman guard Andre Dawkins (38.8).

In addition to shooting well, Duke plays tough defense, limiting foes to just 61.8 points per game.

Fulfills all five requisites in the Portrait of a Champion (returning head coach, scored 76 ppg, 10+ margin of victory, in the tournament last year, seeded 1-4).

WHY TO HATE: Since reaching the Final Four in 2004, Mike Krzyzewski hasn’t taken his team past the Sweet 16 despite coaching four teams that had 27-plus wins.

Jon Scheyer is playing really well at point guard, but that’s not his natural position. This could hurt in March.

Duke usually wins on the road, so it’s surprising that they were just 5-5 in away contests this year. Their only impressive road victory came at Clemson.

THE VERDICT: Duke is a No. 1 seed, so there will be plenty of brackets that have the Blue Devils reaching the Final Four. Mine won’t. I think they’ll reach the Sweet 16 again and perhaps the Elite Eight depending on the matchups, but that’s it.
Florida State (22-9)

WHY TO LOVE: Florida State has tremendous size. They’re led by 7-1 sophomore center Solomon Alabi (11.6 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 2.3 bpg) and 6-9 sophomore forward Chris Singleton (10.4 ppg, 7.2 rpg).

The Seminoles finished with a 6-5 road record, with nice wins at Miami, North Carolina and Georgia Tech.

Florida State’s defense limits opponents to just 60.2 points per game.

WHY TO HATE: Florida State has lots of flaws:

– Youth: The top four scorers are underclassmen.

– Turnovers: The Seminoles give the ball away a mind-boggling 16.7 times per game.

– Three-point shooting: The team as a whole hits 34.2 percent of its threes. Only Deividas Dulkys hits better than 35.5 percent (40.1).

– Poor guard play: No Seminole guard averages more than nine points per game.

– Free-throw shooting: Just 64.9 percent from the charity stripe.

– No NCAA Tournament success: Florida State hasn’t won an NCAA Tournament contest since 1998.

THE VERDICT: Guard play wins in March. Florida State has poor guard play. They’ll be lucky to win a game.
Georgia Tech (22-12)

WHY TO LOVE: Georgia Tech is one of the most talented teams in the nation. As ESPN analyst and former Duke guard Jay Williams said, “they have the talent to reach the Final Four.” They have two top 2010 NBA Draft prospects – junior 6-9 forward Gani Lawal (13.6 ppg, 8.7 rpg) and junior 6-10 forward Derrick Favors (12.1 ppg, 8.4 rpg).

The Jackets rebound extremely well. They’re also very good from beyond the arc (36.8%). Some of their top long-ball shooters include Iman Shumpert (35.9), Brian Oliver (38.8) and as you may expect, Glen Rice Jr. (47.2).

WHY TO HATE: There’s a reason this team was on the bubble. The Jackets have a laundry list of flaws:

– They’re the sloppiest team in the tournament. They turn the ball over a whopping 16.1 times per game.

– Free-throw shooting is a miserable 65.2 percent.

– The frontcourt is awesome, but the guard play isn’t very good.

– They are just 3-8 on the road, and their only away victories came at UT-Chattanooga, Charlotte and North Carolina. This means they violate Rule No. 4 of my NCAA Tournament Credo.

– Inexperience: Four of the top six scorers are underclassmen.

THE VERDICT: Georgia Tech’s talent might win them a game in the NCAA Tournament, but they just have way too many flaws. There’s a good chance they’re a one-and-done team.
Maryland (23-8)

WHY TO LOVE: Gary Williams is an outstanding coach who hasn’t lost a first-round NCAA Tournament game since 1997. In fact, look at Williams’ results when he’s had a team with 23-plus victories since 1999: Sweet 16, Second Round, Final Four, NCAA Champion, Second Round. I think it’s safe to say that the Terps won’t be upset in the first round.

Senior guard Greivis Vasquez is one of the top players in the country. Vasquez averages 19.6 ppg, 4.6 rpg and 6.3 apg. He also nails 38.2 percent of his threes.

Including Vasquez, Maryland’s top three scorers are seniors. The others are forward Landon Milbourne (12.4 ppg, 4.9 rpg) and Eric Hayes (11.0 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 3.9 apg).

The Terps don’t shoot many threes, but when they do, they make them. As a team, they hit 39.3 percent from beyond. Eric Hayes makes an amazing 45.2 percent of his long-distance shots.

Maryland finished 8-3 on the road. Impressive away victories came against Florida State and Virginia Tech.

Fulfills all five requisites in the Portrait of a Champion (returning head coach, scored 76 ppg, 10+ margin of victory, in the tournament last year, seeded 1-4).

WHY TO HATE: Maryland lacks in size and consequently doesn’t rebound very well. They have an outstanding stable of guards, but a talented balanced team will be a tough matchup for them.

THE VERDICT: This is a very good Maryland team, and I’ll be shocked if they’re not playing on the second weekend.
Virginia Tech (23-8)

WHY TO LOVE: Junior Malcolm Delaney is one of the top guards in the country. He averaged 20.9 ppg and 4.2 apg this season.

Delaney is joined by two other double-digit scorers: junior guard Dorenzo Hudson (14.4 ppg) and junior forward Jeff Allen (12.1 ppg, 7.3 rpg).

Virginia Tech’s top five scorers are all upperclassmen.

The Hokies, a solid defensive group (64.7 ppg allowed), were 6-5 on the road with an impressive victory at Georgia Tech.

WHY TO HATE: Virginia Tech shoots miserably from beyond the arc. As a team, they hit just 31.1 percent of their long-distance attempts. No regular nails better than 33.3 percent of his three-point shots.

Forget the threes; the Hokies struggle to shoot from anywhere on the court. Their field-goal percentage is a laughable 42.6 percent. As a comparison, Maryland’s is 47.2.

THE VERDICT: The Hokies could win their first-round game depending on their matchup, but their inability to hit jumpers will eventually be their downfall. Chances are they won’t make it out of the opening game.
Wake Forest (19-10)

WHY TO LOVE: Three double-digit scorers here: sophomore forward Al-Farouq Aminu (15.7 ppg, 10.7 rpg), senior point guard Ishmael Smith (13.3 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 6.0 apg) and freshman guard C.J. Harris (10.0 ppg).

Wake Forest is great on the glass; they’re one of the top rebounding teams in the country.

WHY TO HATE: Wake Forest is ice-cold entering the NCAA Tournament; the Deacons have lost five of their previous six games.

This team plays poor defense, allowing 68.4 ppg.

The Demon Deacons don’t shoot the ball particularly well; they’re 43.8 percent from the field and 31.3 percent from three-point range. Only one regular, Ari Stewart, shoots better than 35 percent from downtown (37.5).

Wake Forest violates Rule No. 4 of my NCAA Tournament Credo. They were just 5-7 on the road, though they did manage to win at Gonzaga (early in the year).

THE VERDICT: I don’t think this team belongs in the NCAA Tournament. Barring a first-round matchup against a very flawed team, I’ll have Wake Forest losing its opening game.