By Chet Gresham – @ChetGresham
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In many ways, the Green Bay Packers are difficult to predict for this coming season, as they have a new coach for the first time since 2006, when Mike McCarthy was hired. But the good news is that even with a hurting Aaron Rodgers and an overall poor showing in 2018, the Packers were still a better than average offense with little to no innovation in their play calling. Going into 2019, the hope is that head coach Matt LeFleur is just the guy to give this offense a shot in the arm.
LeFleur has been with some great offenses of late. In 2015 and 16, he was the quarterbacks coach under Kyle Shanahan, and in 2017, he was the offensive coordinator under Sean McVay. McVay and Shanahan are currently two of the best offensive minds in the business. Those offensive heights pushed the Tennessee Titans to hire LeFleur as their offensive coordinator for last season, but unlike McVay and Shanahan, the Titans were coached by conservative Mike Vrabel, and to add to that misfortune, their starting quarterback, Marcus Mariota, was out or playing hurt much of the season. There wasn’t much for LeFleur to add to his resume from Tennessee, but the Packers still felt comfortable bringing him on board, as it would have been a minor miracle if he could have put up big offensive numbers with Blaine Gabbert getting on the field for eight games.
This year will be Jones third season in the NFL, and despite missing games with injuries, he has consistently been an efficient game changer. During the 12 games in which Jones has seen 10 or more rushing attempts, he has averaged 14.2 carries and 2.3 receptions for 95.2 total yards, 5.55 yards per carry, and one touchdown. Extrapolate that to 16 full games and he would be at 1,523 yards and 16 touchdowns. So, can Jones average 16.5 touches per game in 2019 after averaging 14.3 last season? I really see no reason why he shouldn’t.
Jones wasn’t the lead back to start the 2018 season, as he missed the first two games to a suspension, but in Week 5, he took a step up in touches and averaged 17 touches a game for 99.6 yards and 1.1 touchdowns until his MCL injury in Week 13. It took too long for the Packers coaches to step up Jones’ touches, but they did, and it proved fruitful. There is also no doubt that Jones is light years better than Jamaal Williams as a runner in their careers:
Williams did put up good receiving numbers with some big yards-after-the-catch plays, but with a larger sample size, there’s no doubt that the yards per catch would regress to the mean. But the yards-per-rushing-attempt numbers aren’t going to change much, because Jones has proven he is a better runner. He is also extremely productive. Last season, Jones led the league with 31 percent of his carries going for a touchdown or first down. That is a statistic I can sink my teeth into and so can coaches. Jones gets the job done. And when it comes to explosiveness, there is no comparison, with Williams averaging a 15-plus yards run on every 153 carries while Jones averages one every 10 carries.
Last season, the Packers did not use their running backs much under Mike McCarthy. Ranking 31st in “looks,” only Tampa Bay had fewer rushing attempts and targets for its backs in 2018. But Green Bay did consistently rank higher than 31st in all of the offensive stats for running backs. The Packers have the offensive line and the running back, and now they have the coach to help bring about more usage and more efficiency.
Matt LeFleur isn’t going to give Aaron Jones 20 touches a game and then take a nap, but he will use the better back and help get him into space, much like he did with Todd Gurley in L.A. LeFleur’s offense will be all about getting players into mismatches, and when you have Aaron Rodgers as your quarterback, LeFleur’s ability to do that gets much easier. LeFleur also will use both backs in the passing game more. He told PackersWire, “Oh, I love it when we can get them the ball in the passing game. That’s just one more eligible receiver the defense has to focus on. When you talk about getting five guys out into a concept, it just opens up more space inside.” His love for throwing to running backs showed up in OTAs and minicamp, with more work for running backs running routes and catching the ball than previously under McCarthy.
An uptick in receptions to go along with the lead-back role in what I believe will be a more dynamic offense, is what the doctor ordered for a breakout season from Jones. At this point, the only concern I have is based on his injury history, and sprained MCLs aren’t going to tear down a back quickly. He’s missed six games the last two seasons to injury and two to a suspension for smoking the ganga. It’s too early to call him a true injury risk, plus running back is always an injury risk. They get hit, a lot.
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