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Kansas at Kentucky.
Line: Kentucky by 6.5.
9:20 PM ET (Game 613-614)
The Jayhawks did a great job of coming back against Ohio State, but they’re still a bit of a fraud. They should have lost to Purdue, and N.C. State had them dead to rights as well. North Carolina was missing Kendall Marshall, while the Buckeyes choked away a big lead. Kentucky won’t do that. Anthony Davis won’t be denied.
College Basketball Pick: Kentucky 74, Kansas 63
Kentucky -6.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
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Ohio State vs. Kansas.
Line: Ohio State by 3.
8:50 PM ET (Game 819-820)
I love Ohio State in this matchup. Jayhawk fans may not want to hear this, but they don’t have a Final Four-caliber team. What exactly has Kansas done to get here? The only team seeded higher than 10 than it has beaten to advance to New Orleans was North Carolina, who was missing its starting point guard. The Jayhawks barely got by No. 10 Purdue and No. 11 N.C. State. Ohio State has been much more impressive dating back to the Big Ten Tournament.
As for the other game, I’d lean Louisville because its press will force Marquis Teague into some bad decisions, but I’m not willing to bet on it because Kentucky has so much raw talent. I think the Wildcats will win by 6-8 points, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they prevailed by double digits.
College Basketball Pick: Ohio State 69, Kansas 60
Ohio State -3 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Baylor vs. Kentucky.
Line: Kentucky by 7.5.
2:05 PM ET (Game 717-718)
A terrible beat on Friday and a tough beat yesterday. Now I remember why I took a sabbatical from college basketball. Meh. Anyway, this is the matchup I had in my brackets. Kentucky should be able to win this easily because both teams play the same style, and the Wildcats are just so much more talented than Baylor. The Bears turn the ball over way too much, and I fully expect Kentucky’s stout defense to take advantage of that.
College Basketball Pick: Kentucky 80, Baylor 65
Kentucky -7.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Florida vs. Louisville.
Line: Florida by 1.
4:30 PM ET (Game 521-522)
Terrible beat last night with Baylor not covering -6 despite the fact that they established a 22-4 lead in the first half and still led by 13 with a couple of minutes to go. Ugh.
I think it surprises some people that Florida is favored over the team that won the Big East Tournament. I thought the Cardinals might be a short favorite. I still like the Gators though. Unlike Michigan State, they do a great job of taking care of the basketball, so that will nullify Louisville’s press. Florida also has the big men to knock Gorgui Dieng out of the game.
College Basketball Pick: Florida 65, Louisville 59
Florida -1 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Indiana vs. Kentucky.
Line: Kentucky by 9.5.
9:45 PM ET (Game 873-874)
I have two picks today, both favorites. Indiana has problems at point guard, which is not a good thing going into a matchup against Kentucky’s stout defense. The Wildcats should be able to win this easily.
College Basketball Pick: Kentucky 75, Indiana 57
Kentucky -9.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Xavier vs. Baylor.
Line: Baylor by 6.
7:15 PM ET (Game 875-876)
Pinnacle doesn’t want you to bet Baylor with them, and I understand why. The Bears are just way more athletic and talented than a Xavier team that managed to get into the Sweet 16 because Lehigh upset Duke.
College Basketball Pick: Baylor 74, Xavier 63
Baylor -6 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Cincinnati vs. Ohio State.
Line: Ohio State by 7.5.
9:45 PM ET (Game 815-816)
Cincinnati is receiving more action than any other team today. I’ve heard multiple people on SportsCenter pick the Bearcats to be the team that pulls off the upset. Meanwhile, Pinnacle doesn’t want you to bet the Buckeyes with them, setting the juice at -109. Ohio State is the much better squad and should be able to take care of business.
College Basketball Pick: Ohio State 68, Cincinnati 57
Ohio State -7.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Virginia Commonwealth at Indiana.
Line: Indiana by 6.
7:10 PM ET (Game 531-532)
I’m sorry I haven’t done this in a while. I had a death in the family (uncle died of lung cancer), and with the Robert Griffin trade and free agency starting up, my time’s been pretty limited.
I’ll try to come up with some winners for the rest of the NCAA Tournament. I like VCU today because they pressure the ball better than any team east of Louisville, and Indiana has shaky point guard play.
College Basketball Pick: Virginia Commonwealth 67, Indiana 63
Virginia Commonwealth +6 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Utah at Oregon.
Line: Oregon by 17.5.
6:00 PM ET (Game 575-576)
Utah has played relatively well ever since I confused them with Colorado. Apparently, all of the players read this Web site and decided to use that as motivation. I’ll take full credit. The Utes should be able to keep this game close, especially considering that Oregon hasn’t beaten anyone by double digits since Feb. 9.
College Basketball Pick: Oregon 68, Utah 59
Utah +17.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
North Carolina at Duke.
Line: North Carolina by 2.
7:00 PM ET (Game 593-594)
It’s pretty nuts that Duke is a home underdog. I know that the Tar Heels are the better team, but come on – how the hell are the Blue Devils getting points as hosts? Everyone is picking North Carolina, so I like Duke to play as if its on a mission to prove everyone wrong.
College Basketball Pick: Duke 82, North Carolina 77
Duke +2 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Villanova at Rutgers.
Line: Rutgers by 3.5.
9:00 PM ET (Game 715-716)
This Villanova team is terrible. I don’t think they’ll be bringing any sort of effort tonight against Rutgers. At least the Scarlet Knights are trying.
College Basketball Pick: Rutgers 71, Villanova 62
Rutgers -3.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
South Florida at Louisville.
Line: Louisville by 9.
7:00 PM ET (Game 529-530)
I’m back from my NFL Combine break, and I’m ready to lose more money! Louisville has been a bit shaky lately, thanks to its inconsistent offense. South Florida has a great defense and should be able to stay within the number. The Bulls will be an NCAA Tournament team with a victory tonight, so they’ll definitely bring more energy to the table than the Cardinals.
College Basketball Pick: Louisville 55, South Florida 53
South Florida +9 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
California at Utah.
Line: California by 16.
9:00 PM ET (Game 737-738)
Last night’s Michigan State-Minnesota tilt was one of the most fixed games of all time. I can’t believe how ridiculous it was. I should have known better to go against so much reverse line movement.
I don’t love anything today, but I’m willing to take a shot with Cal. The Bears have blown teams out on the road, and they should have no problem destroying one of the worst teams in Division I basketball.
College Basketball Pick: California 77, Utah 49
California -16 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
South Florida at Syracuse.
Line: Syracuse by 14.
7:00 PM ET (Game 563-564)
Sorry this is being posted late. My Internet was down the whole day. Comcast blows. You’ll hear all about it in Jerks of the Week soon.
I like South Florida here. The Bulls are really underrated, while overrated Syracuse has had issues putting teams away.
College Basketball Pick: Syracuse 64, South Florida 58
South Florida +14 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Michigan State at Minnesota.
Line: Michigan State by 5.5.
8:30 PM ET (Game 593-594)
Reverse line movement is keeping me from making this a three- or a four-unit pick. Michigan State is arguably the top team in the country, while Minnesota is absolute garbage. The Spartans should be able to win by double digits.
College Basketball Pick: Michigan State 68, Minnesota 53
Michigan State -6 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Kentucky at Mississippi State.
Line: Kentucky by 9.
9:00 PM ET (Game 741-742)
I’m going to keep riding Kentucky. Mississippi State is struggling right now, and I don’t know how its 149th-ranked defense will contain the Wildcats. This should be a blowout.
College Basketball Pick: Kentucky 82, Mississippi State 65
Kentucky -9 (2 Units) — Push; $0
Baylor at Texas.
Line: Texas by 2.
9:00 PM ET (Game 525-526)
More people are betting Baylor today than any other college basketball team. It’s apparent that the Bears are living off their early-season hype; they’ve really struggled recently, losing three of their previous four. The Longhorns are just about as good as Baylor, and they’ve played better basketball in the past couple of weeks. They should be favored by more than two points.
College Basketball Pick: Texas 70, Baylor 63
Texas -2 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
South Florida at Pittsburgh.
Line: Pittsburgh by 7.5.
7:00 PM ET (Game 833-834)
I was riding this Pitt team for a while, but they’re so undisciplined because of poor coaching. South Florida has a really good defense, so it should be able to keep this contest close and perhaps come away with a victory.
College Basketball Pick: South Florida 64, Pittsburgh 60
South Florida +7.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Ole Miss at Kentucky.
Line: Kentucky by 21.
4:00 PM ET (Game 547-548)
I apologize about yesterday. I had something to take care of in the evening, so I didn’t even get a chance to place my bet.
Anyway, I like Kentucky again today. I’ve already talked about how this is the most talented college basketball team we’ve seen in years. They’re on a roll, and they should have no problem with an Ole Miss squad that just lost at home to Vanderbilt, 102-76.
College Basketball Pick: Kentucky 83, Ole Miss 55
Kentucky -21 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Florida at Arkansas.
Line: Florida by 5.5.
6:00 PM ET (Game 571-572)
I don’t get why Florida is favored by so much. The Gators don’t have a quality road win all year (their best victory was at Alabama, a team that was missing half its roster). Meanwhile, Arkansas is dominant at home, beating Vanderbilt, Michigan and Mississippi State as hosts.
College Basketball Pick: Arkansas 75, Florida 73
Arkansas +5.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Brown at Harvard.
Line: Harvard by 19.5.
7:00 PM ET (Game 825-826)
I don’t know anything about these two teams, outside of Harvard being solid and Brown being terrible. What I do know is this: Brown’s leading scorer, Sean McGonagill, could be out with a concussion. If he can’t play, there’s no way Brown is coming close to a pissed-off Harvard team that just lost to Princeton.
I’m taking the host if McGonagill is ruled out.
College Basketball Pick: Harvard 78, Brown 48
Harvard -19.5 (1 Unit??) — No action
Wisconsin at Michigan State.
Line: Michigan State by 6.
7:00 PM ET (Game 709-710)
Tough beat last night. Miami led throughout, but lost it at the end. It didn’t help that the shady refs gave North Carolina twice as many free throws than the Hurricanes.
We bought Michigan State low on Saturday. Now, let’s sell high. I love the Spartans, but Wisconsin is pretty much just as good. This is going to be a defensive battle, so I’ll be shocked if it’s a blowout. The Badgers should cover.
College Basketball Pick: Michigan State 59, Wisconsin 58
Wisconsin +6 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
North Carolina at Miami.
Line: North Carolina by 5.5.
8:00 PM ET (Game 547-548)
More people are betting North Carolina tonight than any other college basketball team. I really like Miami in this spot. The Tar Heels don’t have a single quality road victory all year; their best win away from Chapel Hill is at Virginia Tech. The Hurricanes are underrated, as they’ve played great basketball since getting center Reggie Johnson back from injury.
College Basketball Pick: Miami 73, North Carolina 70
Miami +5.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Ohio State at Minnesota.
Line: Ohio State by 8.
9:00 PM ET (Game 759-760)
Just a small play on Ohio State today. Coming off losses this year, the Buckeyes have won by 24, 31 and 17 (vs. Indiana). They should have no problem with Minnesota. The Gophers really have trouble scoring at times, which will be extra difficult tonight becuase they’ll be battling the Buckeyes’ elite defense.
College Basketball Pick: Ohio State 68, Minnesota 55
Ohio State -8 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Syracuse at Louisville.
Line: Syracuse by 3.
7:00 PM ET (Game 515-516)
I’d like to question the legitimacy of Syracuse. I’m not going to argue that the Orange Men are a bad team, by any means, but I’m not sure they deserve a top-five ranking. I mentioned last week that they’ve struggled to put good teams away at home. Well, they don’t have a quality road win either. Their best away victory came at mediocre Cincinnati, albeit without Fab Melo.
The Cardinals are surging right now, and I expect them to win this contest. Oh, and by the way, Syracuse has not won (or covered) in Louisville in at least 15 years. With lots of money coming in on the Orange Men, I’m making the Cardinals a big play.
College Basketball Pick: Louisville 67, Syracuse 65
Louisville +3 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Pittsburgh at Seton Hall.
Line: Seton Hall by 2.
12:00 PM ET (Game 813-814)
I’m giving Pittsburgh another shot. The Panthers just suffered a surprising loss to South Florida, but I get the feeling that they were looking ahead. It’s not like they have a good coach who can keep them focused. I expect them to bounce back against Seton Hall, a team that has just one victory (Rutgers) since Jan. 10.
College Basketball Pick: Pittsburgh 65, Seton Hall 58
Pittsburgh +2 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Michigan State at Ohio State.
Line: Ohio State by 9.
6:00 PM ET (Game 605-606)
Call me crazy, but I think Ohio State and Michigan State are almost even (ranked Nos. 1 and 5 on KenPom, respectively). It seems like the public is hung up on the Spartans’ ugly 42-41 loss at Illinois, but that was a ridiculous game in which every shot rimmed out. Draymond Green getting hurt didn’t help matters. This line is way too high.
College Basketball Pick: Ohio State 68, Michigan State 66
Michigan State +9 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Kentucky at Vanderbilt.
Line: Kentucky by 4.5.
9:00 PM ET (Game 659-660)
The reverse line action is pissing me off in this game, but I’m taking Kentucky anyway. Vanderbilt’s No. 60 defense is not good enough to contain the best college basketball team in years. The Wildcats are on fire right now, and I don’t expect them to lose another game this season.
College Basketball Pick: Kentucky 81, Vanderbilt 67
Kentucky -4.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Virginia Tech at Miami.
Line: Miami by 6.
9:00 PM ET (Game 737-738)
Miami just beat Duke, and Duke just defeated North Carolina, so Miami must be “teh beest team evar.” The Blue Devils were clearly looking forward to playing the Tar Heels and/or partying on Super Bowl Sunday, so they didn’t take the Hurricanes seriously. Don’t forget that Miami lost to N.C. State and needed double overtime to beat Maryland recently (both games at home).
These two teams are about even, and I’d even give Virginia Tech the slight edge because it has the better defense. This spread should be -3; not -6.
College Basketball Pick: Miami 64, Virginia Tech 63
Virginia Tech +6 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
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Georgetown at Syracuse.
Line: Syracuse by 9.
7:00 PM ET (Game 561-562)
Am I crazy, or is Syracuse not as good as its ranking indicates? I realize the Orange Men have talent, but they don’t exactly have impressive wins this year. Their best victories have come against (rankings per KenPom): No. 16 Florida, 72-68; No. 22 Marquette, 73-66; and No. 32 West Virginia, 63-61. All of those wins have come at home.
Syracuse is once again a host, but Georgetown is much better than Florida, Marquette and West Virginia. The Hoyas have the superior defense in this matchup, and I think they can come away with the outright victory.
College Basketball Pick: Syracuse 71, Georgetown 68
Georgetown +9 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Pittsburgh at South Florida.
Line: Pittsburgh by 3.
7:00 PM ET (Game 563-564)
I’ve said it several times over the past couple of weeks – Pitt is going to be a huge money-maker because it is undervalued in the wake of Tray Woodall’s return to the lineup. The Panthers should be favored by at least 10 here; they are arguably the top team in the Big East with Woodall back, while South Florida has lost two of its previous three games by 20 and 30.
College Basketball Pick: Pittsburgh 76, South Florida 56
Pittsburgh -3 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Florida at Kentucky.
Line: Kentucky by 9.
7:00 PM ET (Game 715-716)
Don’t you hate it when a player listed as doubtful suits up? That’s what happened last night, but not that it would have mattered anyway. UConn is so poorly coached it’s ridiculous. Almost every possession is a turnover or a bad shot. I’m going to bet against them at every opportunity going forward.
I have a slight lean on Kentucky tonight. I think this Wildcat team is the one of the most talented basketball squads we’ve seen in a long time, and unlike prior years, it actually has some experience.
I don’t know how Florida’s No. 100 defense is going to stop Kentucky. I also don’t know how the Gators are going to get over their road struggles; they’re 2-4 as visitors, with their wins coming at crappy South Carolina and Ole Miss.
College Basketball Pick: Kentucky 81, Florida 68
Kentucky -9 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Connecticut at Louisville.
Line: Louisville by 4.
7:00 PM ET (Game 521-522)
There’s a ton of action on Louisville today, yet the spread has dropped from -4.5 to -4. Why is this? Well, the Cardinals might not even be able to field a team tonight.
Rick Pitino lost key reserve Rakeem Buckles to a season-ending knee injury two weeks ago. But he’s only a depth concern. The real issue is that leading rebounder Gorgui Dieng is doubtful with a knee ailment of his own. Connecticut is already a great offensive rebounding team, so Louisville is going to have major issues keeping the Huskies off the boards.
Meanwhile, I think Jim Calhoun’s back injury served as a wake-up call for Connecticut. The team looked sluggish in mid-January, but really showed a ton of energy Saturday in a blowout victory over a decent Seton Hall squad.
College Basketball Pick: Connecticut 64, Louisville 61
Connecticut +4 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Villanova at Pittsburgh.
Line: Pittsburgh by 7.5.
2:00 PM ET (Game 815-816)
I mentioned this earlier in the week – Pitt is going to be a major money-maker going forward because of Tray Woodall’s return. It’s no coincidence that the Panthers beat two really good opponents in Georgetown and West Virginia in the past week; with Woodall back, they’re once again one of the top teams in the Big East. They should be double-digit favorites over a crap Villanova squad, whose only Big East victories have come against DePaul, Seton Hall and St. John’s.
College Basketball Pick: Pittsburgh 82, Villanova 70
Pittsburgh -7.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Kentucky at South Carolina.
Line: Kentucky by 12.
6:00 PM ET (Game 611-612)
I’m taking Kentucky tonight because:
1. The Wildcats had issues covering the spread earlier in the year, but they’ve gotten on a roll. Since nearly losing at Tennessee, they’ve won by 23, 6 (over No. 21 Alabama), 13, 24 and 25.
2. Kentucky has a tough game against Florida coming up on Tuesday. Why is this a good thing? Well, John Calipari does a great job of keeping his team from looking ahead. For instance, the Wildcats blasted Marist by 50 four days before going up against Kansas. Later in the year, they dispatched St. John’s by 22 two days prior to North Carolina.
3. South Carolina, whose defense ranks No. 157 in the country, can’t possibly stop Kentucky. The Gamecocks have just one quality home win all year, and that was against an Alabama team that was flat after losing to the Wildcats.
College Basketball Pick: Kentucky 80, South Carolina 61
Kentucky -12 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Duke at Virginia Tech.
Line: Duke by 5.
7:00 PM ET (Game 513-514)
Here’s why I think Virginia Tech is the right side tonight:
1. Duke isn’t as good as everyone thinks it is. Check out what the Blue Devils have done on the road this year (rankings according to KenPom.com):
At No. 1 Ohio State: Loss, 85-63
At No. 40 Temple: Loss, 78-73
At No. 141 Georgia Tech: Win, 81-74
At No. 93 Clemson: Win, 73-66
At No. 146 Maryland: Win, 74-61
In other words, Duke doesn’t have a quality road win this year, even struggling to put away miserable foes.
2. Virginia Tech, despite its record, is not a miserable team. It’s ranked No. 53. The Hokies have the better defense in this matchup (12th in opposing field goal percentage). They recently won at No. 24 Virginia. I think they can slow down Duke.
3. There’s so much action on the Blue Devils. I know the spread is matching the money, but the fact remains that Vegas stands to lose a ton of money if Duke covers.
College Basketball Pick: Duke 73, Virginia Tech 72
Virginia Tech +5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Illinois State at Creighton.
Line: Creighton by 11.
8:00 PM ET (Game 779-780)
I really like Illinois State tonight. Here’s why:
1. Creighton’s record is very impressive, but did you know that it hasn’t beaten a team ranked in KenPom’s top 90 by more than nine points all year? The Jays love to beat up on crappy teams, but haven’t been able to put away the tougher opponents.
2. Illinois State is definitely a tougher opponent. Ranked No. 79, the Redbirds have lost by double digits just twice all year. They even battled No. 12 Wichita State to the very end, losing 65-62 on the road. They’ll give Creighton a hard fight.
3. There is a ton of action coming in on the host, yet the spread has fallen from -12 to -11 (-10.5 in some places). The sharps are all over the underdog, and so am I.
College Basketball Pick: Creighton 76, Illinois State 73
Illinois State +11 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Oklahoma State at Texas Tech.
Line: Oklahoma State by 3.
8:00 PM ET (Game 531-532)
This game really jumped out at me. Here’s why I really like Texas Tech:
1. Severely banged-up Oklahoma State doesn’t deserve to be a road favorite. The Cowboys have just one away victory all year, and that was at Missouri State when they were healthier. They’ve dropped their visiting games in the Big XII by an average of 17 points.
2. Texas Tech hasn’t won a conference game yet, but if you look closely at its schedule, that’s not much of a surprise. The Red Raiders have played four Big XII home games, all against teams ranked in the top 36 according to KenPom’s advanced stats (Baylor, Kansas, Iowa State, Kansas State). In other words, this is their first easy contest as a host since December.
3. The sharps are all over Texas Tech. This spread opened at -4, yet despite action on the visitor, it has dropped to -3.
College Basketball Pick: Texas Tech 67, Oklahoma State 61
Texas Tech +3 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Pittsburgh at West Virginia.
Line: West Virginia by 5.5.
7:00 PM ET (Game 741-742)
Two reasons why I’m leaning with Pittsburgh:
1. It’s time to cash in on the Panthers. It’s no coincidence that they’ve won two in a row recently; they finally have guard Tray Woodall back from injury. Pitt is a talented team that will probably win the majority of its remaining games.
2. West Virginia is coming of a tough, last-second loss against Syracuse in which the refs screwed them out of a possible chance at overtime with an obvious blown call. I can’t see the Mountaineers being 100 percent in this spot.
College Basketball Pick: Pittsburgh 74, West Virginia 71
Pittsburgh +5.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Manhattan at Niagara.
Line: Manhattan by 3.
4:00 PM ET (Game 867-868)
Here’s why I really like Niagara:
1. Manhattan’s record is impressive (15-7), but its play on the road this year has not been. As visitors, the Jaspers have only beaten one team with a winning record. I know Niagara doesn’t have a positive record (9-13), but the Purple Eagles have won three of their previous five, with one of the losses being by only seven at Manhattan. They’ll have a better chance to knock off the Jaspers at home.
2. One of the reasons Manhattan struggles on the road is because it turns the ball over way too much, ranking 324th in the country in that category. The Purple Eagles should be able to take advantage of this, ranking a solid 56th in turnovers forced.
3. We have reverse line action. Despite there being lots of money on Manhattan, this spread has dropped -3.5 to -3. The sharps like Niagara, and so do I.
College Basketball Pick: Niagara 72, Manhattan 67
Niagara +3 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Saint Joseph’s at Temple.
Line: Temple by 6.
4:00 PM ET (Game 607-608)
Two reasons why I’m taking St. Joe’s:
1. This is a huge rivalry in Philadelphia where the underdog usually covers because the games tend to be close. As this spread may indicate, these teams are about even, especially defensively, so I like getting the points here.
2. There is a good amount of action on Temple, yet this spread has dropped from -6.5 to -6. I guess the sharps agree that St. Joe’s is the right side.
College Basketball Pick: Temple 75, Saint Joseph’s 73
Saint Joseph’s +6 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Cincinnati at Rutgers.
Line: Cincinnati by 1.5.
6:00 PM ET (Game 619-620)
Here’s why I really like Rutgers:
1. Cincinnati is coming off a slew of difficult games. In the past two weeks, the team has battled Georgetown, Connecticut, West Virginia and Syracuse. The Bearcats appeared exhausted in the final contest, as they scored only 53 against the Orange Men. This is difficult spot for them because they may relax against a Rutgers team that is only 11-10.
2. The Scarlet Knights are a decent team. They’ve knocked off Florida, Connecticut, Pittsburgh and Notre Dame, and battled Georgetown tough in the past month. They struggle to score at times, but their defense is actually better than Cincinnati’s, which can count for a lot in a tough game like this.
3. The public is pounding Cincinnati, yet the spread is moving in Rutgers’ favor.
College Basketball Pick: Rutgers 62, Cincinnati 57
Rutgers +1.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Florida at Ole Miss.
Line: Florida by 5.5.
7:00 PM ET (Game 545-546)
Four reasons why I love Ole Miss tonight:
1. The Gators are 15-4, but they’re really overrated. Just look at their road games. They’re 2-4 in away contests, having beaten only Stetson (who?) and 9-10 South Carolina.
2. Florida has a matchup with No. 16 Mississippi State on Saturday, so the team could be looking past Ole Miss.
3. The Rebels are pretty feisty themselves, having won three of their previous four contests. Oh, and they’re a perfect 8-0 at home.
4. There is a ton of money coming in on Florida, yet the line has dropped from -6 to -5.5 (or -5 in some places). The sharps recognize that this is a bad spot for the overrated Gators.
College Basketball Pick: Ole Miss 66, Florida 64
Ole Miss +5.5 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Saint Louis at Xavier.
Line: Xavier by 1.5.
7:00 PM ET (Game 773-774)
Xavier is one of the most heavily bet teams tonight, yet the spread has dropped from -3 to -1.5. That’s probably because the sharps know that Xavier isn’t that good. Saint Louis is the better team.
College Basketball Pick: Saint Louis 64, Xavier 58
Saint Louis +1.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Virginia Tech at Virginia.
Line: Virginia by 7.5.
6:00 PM ET (Game 855-856)
There is a good amount of action on Virginia, yet the line has dropped from -8 to -7.5 or -7. Why is this? Perhaps the books understand that Virginia’s record is a bit inflated. Plus, this is a rivalry, so Virginia Tech will keep this close.
College Basketball Pick: Virginia 65, Virginia Tech 64
Virginia Tech +7.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Syracuse at Notre Dame.
Line: Syracuse by 9.
6:00 PM ET (Game 625-626)
People are betting this game like Syracuse is going to walk all over Notre Dame, but this is a tough spot for the Orange Men, who didn’t look too impressive versus awful Pitt recently. This is the Irish’s Super Bowl.
College Basketball Pick: Syracuse 72, Notre Dame 70
Notre Dame +9 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Ohio State at Nebraska.
Line: Ohio State by 11.5.
8:00 PM ET (Game 659-660)
The public is pounding Ohio State, yet the line has dropped from -12 to -11.5 or -11. Nebraska is a tough team that typically keeps games close.
College Basketball Pick: Ohio State 73, Nebraska 67
Nebraska +11.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Delaware at George Mason.
Line: George Mason by 12.5.
7:00 PM ET (Game 757-758)
This spread is too high. Delaware’s previous seven losses have been by: 6, 9, 5, 3, 5, 2 and 13. George Mason, meanwhile, has only one double-digit victory since Christmas, and that was a 14-point win over William & Mary in a non-cover.
College Basketball Pick: George Mason 73, Delaware 65
Delaware +12.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Bradley at Evansville.
Line: Evansville by 9.
8:00 PM ET (Game 805-806)
I don’t think you can go from being a double-digit underdog every game to a big favorite like this. That’s what Evansville is being asked to do, so this seems like a bad spot for them. Bradley keeps games close.
College Basketball Pick: Evansville 71, Bradley 66
Bradley +9 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Baylor at Kansas.
Line: Kansas by 6.5.
9:30 PM ET (Game 749-750)
There’s so much money on Baylor, yet this spread has jumped from -5.5 to -6.5 (and -7 in some places). The Bears haven’t been tested on the road yet, so that could be why this line is moving the other way.
College Basketball Pick: Kansas 82, Baylor 72
Kansas -6.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Evansville at Missouri State.
Line: Missouri State by 10.5.
3:00 PM ET (Game 851-852)
Missouri State doesn’t blow too many teams out. Meanwhile, check out the margin of Evansville’s previous five losses: 9, 2, 2, 1, 2.
College Basketball Pick: Missouri State 69, Evansville 64
Evansville +10.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Oklahoma State at Baylor.
Line: Baylor by 14.
3:00 PM ET (Game 593-594)
I feel like this spread is inflated because Baylor is undefeated. The Bears haven’t beaten anyone by more than 13 since slaughtering someone named Paul Quinn on Dec. 19. Oklahoma State, meanwhile, has suffered only one loss of more than 10 points since Thanksgiving.
College Basketball Pick: Baylor 76, Oklahoma State 67
Oklahoma State +14 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Bradley at Wichita State.
Line: Wichita State by 20.
8:00 PM ET (Game 855-856)
Ugh, what happened last night? It was an eight-point game with seven minutes to go, and a 12-point margin with three minutes left. I figured VCU would dribble out the clock, but nooooo… Well, whatever. I like Bradley here as a team that seldom gets blown out versus Wichita State, a squad that also keeps it close. I am aware that the Shockers slaughtered the Braves the last time they met, but it’s tough to destroy a competitive team twice in a season.
College Basketball Pick: Wichita State 80, Bradley 66
Bradley +20 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
James Madison at Virginia Commonwealth.
Line: Virginia Commonwealth by 14.
7:00 PM ET (Game 541-542)
This spread is too high. Virginia Commonwealth has dropped two in a row, while James Madison has lost by more than 12 points only once dating back to Dec. 6.
College Basketball Pick: Virginia Commonwealth 73, James Madison 67
James Madison +14 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Rutgers at Pittsburgh.
Line: Pittsburgh by 9.
7:00 PM ET (Game 747-748)
Rutgers has just one loss of more than six points dating back to Thanksgiving. Pitt has lost four straight games, including a 59-54 defeat against Wagner. This spread is too high.
College Basketball Pick: Pitt 68, Rutgers 64
Rutgers +9 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Bradley at Drake.
Line: Drake by 9.5.
8:05 PM ET (Game 561-562)
Drake is on a long losing streak, so I don’t understand how this team could be favored by 9.5 points. Bradley doesn’t get blown out often, so I’m expecting them to cover.
College Basketball Pick: Drake 68, Bradley 65
Bradley +9.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Southern Illinois at Missouri State.
Line: Missouri State by 11.
8:05 PM ET (Game 563-564)
Missouri State has a much better record than Southern Illinois, but these teams strike me as pretty even. The Salukis have won two of three, with the one loss being a cover against a really good Wichita State squad. Missouri State has one victory of more than 11 since Dec. 20.
College Basketball Pick: Missouri State 71, Southern Illinois 64
Southern Illinois +11 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Dartmouth at Harvard
Line: Harvard by 21.
2:00 PM ET (Game 569-570)
Welcome back to college basketball, Walt. For your first game, you’ll see your 16.5-point underdog lose by 17. FML.
Dartmouth is 3-12, but it doesn’t get “blowed out.” Its recent losses have been by 8, 4, 8, 3 and 6. Its greatest defeat this year was by 18 at Notre Dame. Harvard just lost, so it might be on an emotional low.
College Basketball Pick: Harvard 69, Dartmouth 56
Dartmouth +21 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Illinois-Chicago at Cleveland State
Line: Cleveland State by 16.5.
7:00 PM ET (Game 551-552)
College basketball picks are back! There’s no lockout to screw these up. Just my own stupidity.
This line is way too high. Illinois-Chicago has lost by more than 15 points just once all year (at Oregon State). Cleveland State, meanwhile, doesn’t blow teams out because it doesn’t score enough points.
College Basketball Pick: Cleveland State 68, Illinois-Chicago 59
Illinois-Chicago +16.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
NFL Picks - Dec. 13
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NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9
2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29
Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4
Season:
2013-14: 2013-14 -
2012-13: 2012-13 -
2011-12: 2011-12 -
2010-11: 2010-11 -
2009-10: 2009-10 -
2008-09: 2008-09 -
2007-2008: December - January - February - March -
2006-2007: November - December - January - February - March - April -
2003-2004 Season: 138-107-6 (56.3%)
2004-2005 Season: 168-148-6 (53.2%)
2005-2006 Season: 188-173-7 (52.1%)
2006-2007 Season: 273-255-8 (51.7%), +$945
2007-2008 Season: 71-64-5 (52.6%), +$1,420
2008-2009 Season: 66-53-2 (55.5%), +$1,680
Career Against The Spread: 906-780-32 (53.7%), +$4,045
2013-14: 2013-14 -
2012-13: 2012-13 -
2011-12: 2011-12 -
2010-11: 2010-11 -
2009-10: 2009-10 -
2008-09: 2008-09 -
2007-2008: December - January - February - March -
2006-2007: November - December - January - February - March - April -
2003-2004 Season: 138-107-6 (56.3%)
2004-2005 Season: 168-148-6 (53.2%)
2005-2006 Season: 188-173-7 (52.1%)
2006-2007 Season: 273-255-8 (51.7%), +$945
2007-2008 Season: 71-64-5 (52.6%), +$1,420
2008-2009 Season: 66-53-2 (55.5%), +$1,680
Career Against The Spread: 906-780-32 (53.7%), +$4,045
