College Basketball Picks (Jan. 11-17): 8-3 (+$1,230)
College Basketball Picks (Jan. 18-24): 5-4 (+$630)
College Basketball Picks (Jan. 25-31): 3-5 (-$830)
College Basketball Picks (Feb. 1-7): 4-4 (-$200)
College Basketball Picks (Feb. 8-14): 3-3 (-$170)
College Basketball Picks (Feb. 15-21): 4-1 (+$780)
College Basketball Picks (Feb. 22-28): 3-2 (+$150)
College Basketball Picks (March 1-7): 2-4 (-$590)
College Basketball Picks (March 8-14): 2-1 (+$180)
College Basketball Picks (March 15-21): 6-4 (+$300)
College Basketball Picks (March 22-28): 1-4 (-$690)
College Basketball Picks (April 3-5): 1-1 (-$130)
College Basketball Picks (Reg Season 2009-10): 46-40-1 (+$880)
College Basketball Picks (Reg Season 2008-09): 66-53-2 (+$1,680)
Duke (34-5) at Butler (33-4)
Line: Duke by 7.
I feel like no one is giving a Butler a chance here. Everyone saw the Blue Devils debaclize West Virginia and assume the same thing will happen here. It could, but Butler is a very good team that beat Syracuse and Kansas State. They’re no fluke. Plus, they’re at home.
College Basketball Pick: Duke 75, Butler 74
Butler +7 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Michigan State (28-8) at Butler (32-4)
Line: Butler by 1.
I’m rooting for Butler here, but I like Michigan State to win. Tom Izzo keeps getting points, and he keeps covering (and winning). He’s an amazing coach who should never be an underdog in the NCAA Tournament.
College Basketball Pick: Michigan State 72, Butler 69
Michigan State +1 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Baylor (28-7) at Duke (32-5)
Line: Duke by 4.
If you told me Kentucky would shoot 2-of-25 from three, I would have bet West Virginia. I tweeted, “It’s like Kentucky’s shooting threes with those oversized carnival basketballs.” It was ridiculous, but what can you do?
I like Baylor here; in my opinion, the better team is getting the points. Duke is playing well, but the Bears have the better athletes. I didn’t think the Blue Devils would make it past the Elite Eight, and if I’m right, it’ll be one of the few things I’ve been correct about in this 2010 NCAA Tournament.
College Basketball Pick: Baylor 82, Duke 72
Baylor +4 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
West Virginia (30-6) at Kentucky (35-2)
Line: Kentucky by 4.
Three things going against West Virginia here: First, they don’t have a true point guard – and against John Wall, that’s not good. Second, Bob Huggins chokes in the NCAA Tournament. He hasn’t played a tough team yet, so this is his first opportunity to do so. And third, Kentucky simply has the better players.
College Basketball Pick: Kentucky 80, West Virginia 70
Kentucky -4 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Northern Iowa (30-4) at Michigan State (26-8)
Line: Michigan State by 1.5.
Michigan State would win this game if Kalin Lucas were playing. But the loss of Lucas is too much; Northern Iowa is a very good team that should have been given a No. 4-6 seed. I think they win this one.
College Basketball Pick: Northern Iowa 64, Michigan State 60
Northern Iowa +1.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Butler (30-4) at Syracuse (30-4)
Line: Syracuse by 6.5.
Historically, most Cinderella teams fall off in the Sweet 16. I think this is where Butler gets eliminated. Syracuse has the better athleticism and great 3-point defense to limit Butler’s offense.
College Basketball Pick: Syracuse 82, Butler 68
Syracuse -6.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Cornell (29-4) at Kentucky (34-2)
Line: Kentucky by 8.5.
I’m openly rooting for Cornell here. It’s the classic good guys versus bad guys. The Big Red is what college basketball should be all about – a bunch of student athletes playing as a team and pulling off upsets in the NCAA Tournament.
Kentucky, meanwhile, is everything college basketball shouldn’t be – a group of individuals using the school as a one-and-done stepping stone for the NBA. These individuals are coached by John Calipari, a scumbag who will do anything for money. I’m convinced that he’d bolt for Kentucky at this very moment if, say, Drexel suddenly decided it wanted to pay him $50 million.
Unfortunately, I love the Wildcats to cover this spread. As I said earlier, most Cinderellas are done in the Sweet 16. Also, Cornell’s magical run has lowered the spread; the true line is Kentucky -12 to -13. We’re getting lots of value with the much more talented athletes.
College Basketball Pick: Kentucky 85, Cornell 69
Kentucky -8.5 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Xavier (25-8) at Pittsburgh (25-8)
Line: Xavier by 1.
No. 6 Xavier is favored by one over No. 3 Pittsburgh. Epic fail, NCAA Tournament Selection Committee. Epic fail.
Here’s an interesting trend: Not including this year (because I didn’t get a chance to track it), favored lower seeds are 16-10 against the spread between the 2005 and 2009 NCAA Tournaments.
The Panthers usually choke early in the NCAA Tournament. Xavier’s the better tournament team.
College Basketball Pick: Xavier 75, Pittsburgh 68
Xavier -1 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
California (24-10) at Duke (30-5)
Line: Duke by 6.5.
Another epic fail by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee: Putting Cal in as a No. 8 seed. All of this talk about the Pac 10 being an inferior conference this year was bulls***. Pac 10 teams are now 3-0 in the Big Dance. Perhaps Arizona State should have gotten an at-large bid over a crap team like Utah State, Texas or Wake Forest?
This Cal squad reminds me a lot of last year’s Villanova team that knocked off Duke. Let’s just hope they don’t have anyone like Scottie Reynolds who pulled an Aurora Snow and choke like a dog.
College Basketball Pick: California 78, Duke 76
California +6.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Saint Mary’s (27-5) at Villanova (25-7)
Line: Villanova by 4.5.
People have a short memory. Everyone saw Villanova struggle against Bob Morris in the first round, which has pushed this line down from about -6 or -6.5 to -4.5. We’re getting a lot of value here.
Were the Wildcats’ struggles against Bobby Morris legitimate? I don’t think so. This Villanova team is pretty much the same one that reached the Final Four last year. And in that tournament run, they pulled the same crap against American University in the first round, trailing by 10 at halftime.
I think this is a double-digit victory for Villanova.
College Basketball Pick: Villanova 83, Saint Mary’s 70
Villanova -4.5 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Old Dominion (27-8) at Baylor (26-7)
Line: Baylor by 4.
Baylor’s another team that didn’t look too good on Thursday, but that might have been because of first-round jitters. This Bears team is very talented, and I expect them to beat a pretty pedestrian Old Dominion squad.
College Basketball Pick: Baylor 77, Old Dominion 67
Baylor -4 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Missouri (22-10) at Clemson (21-10)
Line: Clemson by 1.5.
This is a great matchup for Missouri; Clemson turns the ball over a lot, while Missouri forces the most turnovers in the country.
College Basketball Pick: Missouri 78, Clemson 73
Missouri +1.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
New Mexico State (22-11) at Michigan State (24-8)
Line: Michigan State by 13.
I feel like this line is inflated just based on the fact that Michigan State is playing. The Spartans have limped down the stretch, while New Mexico State has been really hot lately. It wouldn’t surprise me if Michigan State lost this contest.
College Basketball Pick: Michigan State 72, New Mexico State 68
New Mexico State +13 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Old Dominion (26-8) at Notre Dame (23-11)
Line: Notre Dame by 2.5.
A small play on an early game. Old Dominion is a one-man team that struggles to score. Notre Dame is better.
College Basketball Pick: Notre Dame 76, Old Dominion 67
Notre Dame -2.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
San Diego State (25-8) at Tennessee (25-8)
Line: Tennessee by 3.5.
These Mountain West teams are terrible, and I’m going against the worst one of the bunch.
College Basketball Pick: Tennessee 79, San Diego State 65
Tennessee -3.5 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Wake Forest (19-10) at Texas (24-9)
Line: Texas by 5.
Texas is 2-9 against the spread in its past 11 games because the team lost its point guard. The Longhorns are awful.
College Basketball Pick: Wake Forest 70, Texas 68
Wake Forest +5 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Jackson State (19-12) at Mississippi State (23-11)
Line: Mississippi State by 20.5.
I don’t know which tournament this is, but I like Jackson State. Mississippi State doesn’t have the offense to blow teams out by 20-plus (they haven’t won a game by more than 13 since January), and besides, why would they even try here? The Bulldogs are too upset that they didn’t make it to the NCAA Tournament.
College Basketball Pick: Mississippi State 67, Jackson State 58
Jackson State +20.5 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Texas (24-8) at Baylor (24-6)
Line: Texas by 1.
Texas is just 2-8 against the spread since Groundhog Day. They lost their starting point guard around that time and have struggled ever since. Baylor’s the better team.
College Basketball Pick: Baylor 70, Texas 65
Baylor +1 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Rice (8-22) at Tulsa (21-10)
Line: Tulsa by 13.5.
Tulsa has trouble scoring and consequently doesn’t blow too many teams out. Rice is a competitive team. They should be able to cover.
College Basketball Pick: Tulsa 66, Rice 59
Rice +13.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Fairfield (22-9) at Siena (26-6)
Line: Siena by 8.
Siena missed the cover by two points yesterday, but I’m going with them again. The Saints are a very good team hitting their stride right now. They know what it takes to win in March.
College Basketball Pick: Siena 81, Fairfield 66
Siena -8 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Rider (17-15) at Siena (25-6)
Line: Siena by 12.
I made a lot of money betting against Siena earlier in the year. Siena’s a great team, and it appears as though they’re hitting their stride now. They know what it takes to win in March, and they’ve already clobbered Rider twice this season.
College Basketball Pick: Siena 81, Rider 65
Siena -12 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Eastern Illinois (19-11) at Murray State (28-4)
Line: Murray State by 13.
There’s a lot of pressure on top-seeded Murray State in this conference tournament. And Eastern Illinois is too good to be 13-point underdogs; they haven’t even lost since January.
College Basketball Pick: Murray State 79, Eastern Illinois 71
Eastern Illinois +13 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
UNC-Asheville (15-15) at Coastal Carolina (27-5)
Line: Coastal Carolina by 14.5.
Coastal Carolina is a great mid-major, but this is a lot of pressure. They’re expected to win this semi-final, but UNC-Asheville isn’t too shabby. I think the underdog covers.
College Basketball Pick: Coastal Carolina 75, UNC-Asheville 72
UNC-Asheville +14.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Monmouth (12-18) at Quinnipiac (21-8)
Line: Quinnipiac by 14.
Like Coastal Carolina, there’s a lot of pressure on Quinnipiac here because they’re expected to win the NEC Tournament.
College Basketball Pick: Quinnipiac 73, Monmouth 64
Monmouth +14 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Minnesota (17-11) at Michigan (13-15)
Line: Michigan by 1.
Michigan had a really tough loss to Ohio State a couple of days ago. It’ll be tough for them to get up for this average Minnesota team.
College Basketball Pick: Minnesota 64, Michigan 58
Minnesota +1 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Tennessee State (9-22) at Murray State (27-4)
Line: Murray State by 20.
Murray State has one blowout in the past month, and Tennessee State has been very competitive lately.
College Basketball Pick: Murray State 79, Tennessee State 68
Tennessee State +20 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Tulane (7-19) at UAB (22-5)
Line: UAB by 15.
UAB has a great record, but they don’t blow anyone out. I think Tulane covers.
College Basketball Pick: UAB 69, Tulane 63
Tulane +15 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Santa Clara (11-18) at Gonzaga (22-5)
Line: Gonzaga by 20.
When Gonzaga is a big favorite, their line is generally inflated because of their name. The Zags have only one 20-point win since Dec. 28, while Santa Clara has played everyone tough lately.
College Basketball Pick: Gonzaga 78, Santa Clara 65
Santa Clara +20 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
DePaul (8-18) at Cincinnati (15-11)
Line: Cincinnati by 14.
This line in inflated because of the records. Cincinnati has only one double-digit win over a Division 1 opponent since Christmas. DePaul has played tough games recently.
College Basketball Pick: Cincinnati 70, DePaul 65
DePaul +14 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
UNC-Greensboro (6-21) at Davidson (14-14)
Line: Davidson by 14.
As I wrote on Saturday, the Davidson point spreads have been inflated all year based on how great they’ve been the past two years. I just wish I realized this sooner; Davidson is 8-17 against the spread this season. But anyway, I’m taking UNC-Greensboro here. Despite their record, the Spartans have only one double-digit loss since Jan. 14.
College Basketball Pick: Davidson 71, UNC-Greensboro 64
UNC-Greensboro +14 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Oklahoma (13-13) at Kansas (26-1)
Line: Kansas by 22.
Kansas lines have been inflated recently; they’re not peaking and haven’t beaten anyone by more than 20 in more than a month.
College Basketball Pick: Kansas 83, Oklahoma 68
Oklahoma +22 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Furman (11-15) at Davidson (13-13)
Line: Davidson by 12.5.
I feel like Davidson’s name is inflating this line. In fact, it’s why they’re 8-15 against the spread this year. Davidson has only blown out one opponent in the past two months, while Furman has kept games close.
College Basketball Pick: Davidson 71, Furman 69
Furman +12.5 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Yale (10-15) at Princeton (15-6)
Line: Princeton by 12.
Princeton hasn’t even scored in the 60s in a long time, so as you can probably guess, they have trouble blowing teams out. Yale has kept its games close lately.
College Basketball Pick: Princeton 59, Yale 58
Yale +12 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Eastern Washington (8-18) at Northern Colorado (20-6)
Line: Northern Colorado by 14.5.
Northern Colorado seldom blows teams out, and Eastern Washington typically keeps its games close.
College Basketball Pick: Northern Colorado 74, Eastern Washington 69
Eastern Washington +14.5 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Illinois-Chicago (6-19) at Butler (23-4)
Line: Butler by 23.
Butler’s offense isn’t great or anything, so they have trouble putting teams away. The Flames have played close games recently.
College Basketball Pick: Butler 70, Illinois-Chicago 60
Illinois-Chicago +23 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Evansville (7-18) at Wichita State (21-6)
Line: Wichita State by 18.
Wichita State also has a pedestrian offense, which is why they haven’t won by double digits in more than a month.
College Basketball Pick: Wichita State 70, Evansville 66
Evansville +18 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
DePaul (8-15) at Seton Hall (13-9)
Line: Seton Hall by 13.5.
Seton Hall hasn’t had a double-digit victory since before Christmas, and DePaul has been competitive recently.
College Basketball Pick: Seton Hall 73, DePaul 67
DePaul +13.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Iowa (9-16) at Purdue (20-3)
Line: Purdue by 19.5.
Missed last night’s cover by half a point. Awesome. Anyway, Purdue doesn’t have a great offense, so they have trouble blowing teams out. Iowa, meanwhile, hasn’t lost by 20 since Thanksgiving.
College Basketball Pick: Purdue 75, Iowa 62
Iowa +19.5 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Rice (8-15) at Southern Miss (14-9)
Line: Southern Miss by 11.5.
Talk about bad offenses – Southern Miss has cracked 60 once in the past month. Rice tends to keep things close.
College Basketball Pick: Southern Miss 66, Rice 63
Rice +11.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Marist (1-23) at Canisius (11-14)
Line: Canisius by 14.5.
Marist has covered three of its past four games. Canisius isn’t very good, but this line is inflated because of Marist’s record.
College Basketball Pick: Canisius 66, Marist 57
Marist +14.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Fordham (2-19) at St. Bonaventure (9-12)
Line: St. Bonaventure by 17.5.
This line is inflated because of Fordham’s record. But Fordham has been covering games recently.
College Basketball Pick: St. Bonaventure 70, Fordham 63
Fordham +17.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Loyola-Illinois (13-10) at Butler (20-4)
Line: Butler by 21.
Loyola-Illinois hasn’t lost by more than 20 all year, and Butler doesn’t usually win by this margin.
College Basketball Pick: Butler 70, Loyola-Illinois 59
Loyola-Illinois +21 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Indiana State (14-9) at Wichita State (19-5)
Line: Wichita State by 13.
Wichita State has trouble scoring and consequently blow teams out. Indiana State is a solid squad and I like them to cover.
College Basketball Pick: Wichita State 68, Indiana State 61
Indiana State +13 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Georgia Southern (6-18) at Davidson (11-11)
Line: Davidson by 15.
I actually won with Georgia Southern on Thursday, and I like them here again for the same reason.
College Basketball Pick: Davidson 72, Georgia Southern 63
Georgia Southern +15 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Marist (1-21) at Manhattan (7-15)
Line: Manhattan by 15.
Manhattan is 7-15. They have one win this month. Why are they favored by 15? I know Marist is 1-21, but they’ve covered some spreads recently.
College Basketball Pick: Manhattan 64, Marist 57
Marist +15 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Georgia Southern (6-15) at West Carolina (17-5)
Line: West Carolina by 15.5.
Wow. I mean, what can you do? I had Evansville +12.5 yesterday. They were up six at halftime. Creighton comes back, takes the lead and ends up winning by 13. How does that happen?
West Carolina hasn’t been blowing teams out lately, and Georgia Southern has only lost by more than 15.5 once this month against a conference opponent.
College Basketball Pick: West Carolina 75, Georgia Southern 68
Georgia Southern +15.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Southern Utah (6-15) at South Dakota State (11-11)
Line: South Dakota State by 14.
Call me crazy, but an 11-11 team doesn’t deserve to be favored by 14, especially when its opponent has been competitive lately. The Jackrabbits of South Dakota State are just 2-3 in their last six games, winning by 6 and 1.
College Basketball Pick: South Dakota State 73, Southern Utah 65
Southern Utah +14 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Evansville (6-15) at Creighton (11-11)
Line: Creighton by 12.5.
Creighton isn’t that good and hasn’t won by double digits since before Christmas. Evansville is competitive.
College Basketball Pick: Creighton 69, Evansville 65
Evansville +12.5 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Elon (4-16) at Wofford (15-8)
Line: Wofford by 17.
I think this line is too high – Wofford doesn’t really blow teams out, and Elon, despite its record, plays close to the vest.
College Basketball Pick: Wofford 69, Elon 63
Elon +17 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Air Force (9-11) at San Diego State (15-6)
Line: San Diego State by 17.
San Diego State doesn’t blow anyone out, while Air Force has been playing better lately. I’d be shocked if San Diego State covers.
College Basketball Pick: San Diego State 70, Air Force 61
Air Force +17 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Penn State (8-12) at Purdue (17-3)
Line: Purdue by 15.
Penn State isn’t very good, bu they at least keep things close. Purdue, meanwhile, doesn’t really blow anyone out.
College Basketball Pick: Purdue 66, Penn State 58
Penn State +15 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Northwestern (14-6) at Michigan State (18-3)
Line: Michigan State by 13.5.
Michigan State is getting too much respect from Vegas. They’ve hardly blown anyone out, while Northwestern has continued to cover these large spreads.
College Basketball Pick: Michigan State 76, Northwestern 69
Northwestern +13.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Dartmouth (4-12) at Cornell (16-3)
Line: Cornell by 25.5.
Not a good day yesterday, but those will happen sometimes.
This line is out of control. Cornell has blown out some teams this year, but 25.5 is too much. And Dartmouth is usually pretty competitive despite its record.
College Basketball Pick: Cornell 70, Dartmouth 56
Dartmouth +25.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Sacramento State (7-14) at Weber State (13-7)
Line: Weber State by 17.
Sacramento State seldom gets “blowed out,” as Emmitt would say. Shocker – I like the points.
College Basketball Pick: Weber State 76, Sacramento State 65
Sacramento State +17 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Illinois-Chicago (5-14) at Wright State (12-8)
Line: Wright State by 18.5.
This spread is inflated because of the record disparity and Illinois-Chicago’s losing streak. However, aside from a recent loss to Butler, the Flames have been really competitive. Wright State doesn’t blow anyone out either.
College Basketball Pick: Wright State 68, Illinois-Chicago 59
Illinois-Chicago +18.5 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
New Orleans (7-13) at Middle Tennessee State (11-10)
Line: Middle Tennessee State by 15.
This line is way too high. Middle Tennessee State seldom blows anyone out, and New Orleans usually plays close games.
College Basketball Pick: Middle Tennessee State 67, New Orleans 61
New Orleans +15 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Evansville (6-13) at Missouri State (14-6)
Line: Missouri State by 14.
This spread is inflated because of the record disparity and Evansville’s losing streak. However, Evansville has been competitive lately. I think they cover.
College Basketball Pick: Missouri State 73, Evansville 66
Evansville +14 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Tulane (6-12) at UTEP (13-5)
Line: UTEP by 17.
Another inflated number. UTEP has only one blowout win in the past month, while Tulane hasn’t lost by more than 15 points since the beginning of the season.
College Basketball Pick: UTEP 72, Tulane 68
Tulane +17 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Penn State (8-10) at Wisconsin (15-4)
Line: Wisconsin by 13.
Wisconsin plays Big Ten sloth basketball and has trouble scoring. That’s why they seldom blow anyone out. Penn State stinks, but they’ve at least kept things close against superior teams.
College Basketball Pick: Wisconsin 68, Penn State 65
Penn State +13 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Eastern Washington (6-14) at Weber State (12-7)
Line: Weber State by 16.
Despite its awful record, Eastern Washington has been very competitive lately. Weber State, meanwhile, seldom blows anyone out. Surprise – I like the points.
College Basketball Pick: Weber State 76, Eastern Washington 69
Eastern Washington +16 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Sacramento State (7-12) at Northern Colorado (16-4)
Line: Northern Colorado by 18.
This spread is way out of control. Northern Colorado seldom blows anyone out, while Sacramento State usually keeps things close.
College Basketball Pick: Northern Colorado 75, Sacramento State 64
Sacramento State +18 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Loyola-Maryland (9-9) at Siena (15-4)
Line: Siena by 16.5.
You know where I’m going with this. Siena is a great team and will be a tough out in the NCAA Tournament, but all of their lines are inflated.
College Basketball Pick: Siena 77, Loyola-Maryland 67
Loyola-Maryland +16.5 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Pepperdine (7-12) at Gonzaga (14-3)
Line: Gonzaga by 22.
This line is ridiculous. Gonzaga seldom beats teams by this margin, and it’s rare to see Pepperdine get blown out by 20-plus.
College Basketball Pick: Gonzaga 79, Pepperdine 65
Pepperdine +22 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Fordham (2-14) at Saint Louis (11-6)
Line: Saint Louis by 17.5.
Stupid Illinois. They were up by four at halftime, but allowed Purdue to orchestrate a 17-4 run to open the second half… and yet Illinois still managed to lose by only six.
This spread is out of control. Saint Louis seldom blows anyone out. Fordham may be 2-14, but they haven’t lost against the spread since they played Villanova in the middle of January. And Saint Louis is not Villanova.
College Basketball Pick: Saint Louis 64, Fordham 58
Fordham +17.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Purdue (14-3) at Illinois (12-6)
Line: Purdue by 4.
It’s tough to travel on a weeknight in college sports, and Purdue is not playing well at all right now. Illinois is 10-0 at home.
College Basketball Pick: Illinois 66, Purdue 62
Illinois +4 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Manhattan (7-10) at Siena (14-4)
Line: Siena by 17.
Siena is a great team out of the MAAC and will be a tough out in the NCAA Tournament, but their winning streak has inflated this line. Manhattan seldom gets blown out, so I think they cover this number.
College Basketball Pick: Siena 77, Manhattan 66
Manhattan +17 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Niagara (10-9) at Marist (1-16)
Line: Niagara by 13.5.
The disparity between these records has inflated the line. Marist is showing some signs of life, while Niagara has just one win this month.
College Basketball Pick: Niagara 71, Marist 65
Marist +13.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Bowling Green (7-7) at Kent State (10-6)
Line: Kent State by 10.5.
Ugh, my two games lost yesterday by 1.5 and .5 points. I guess I was due for a down day.
Hopefully I can rebound here. Kent State is an inflated favorite that seldom blows anyone out. Bowling Green usually plays close.
College Basketball Pick: Kent State 68, Bowling Green 65
Bowling Green +10.5 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Florida International (6-14) at Western Kentucky (10-5)
Line: Western Kentucky by 15.5.
This line is really inflated because of the disparity between the records of these teams. Western Kentucky struggles to score and can’t really blow anyone out.
College Basketball Pick: Western Kentucky 68, Florida International 66
Florida International +15.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
UC-Irvine (8-9) at Pacific (10-6)
Line: Pacific by 12.5.
Another inflated line. Pacific has just one blowout victory since Thanksgiving, while UC-Irvine plays things close to the vest most of the time.
College Basketball Pick: Pacific 69, UC-Irvine 63
UC-Irvine +12.5 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Marist (1-15) at Loyola-Maryland (8-8)
Line: Loyola-Maryland by 14.
Betting on a 1-15 team is never fun, but I think Marist is the right side. The disparity of the records between these teams, as well as Marist’s losing streak has inflated the line. Loyola-Maryland struggles to score and doesn’t blow anyone out.
College Basketball Pick: Loyola-Maryland 64, Marist 58
Marist +14 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Florida Atlantic (7-9) at Western Kentucky (9-5)
Line: Western Kentucky by 11.5.
Western Kentucky is not a good offensive team and consequently has trouble blowing teams out; Florida Atlantic, meanwhile, usually keeps things close. The line is inflated here because of the records, so I’m taking the points.
College Basketball Pick: Western Kentucky 67, Florida Atlantic 64
Florida Atlantic +11.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Delaware (5-11) at Northeastern (9-7)
Line: Northeastern by 16.
This line is way too high. Northeastern has only beaten one team by more than 12 points all year, while Delaware has been very competitive lately despite its record.
College Basketball Pick: Northeastern 70, Delaware 60
Delaware +16 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Massachusetts (7-8) at Richmond (12-5)
Line: Richmond by 12.
Richmond seldom beats anyone by double digits, while UMass has played all close games recently. I think they cover this inflated number.
College Basketball Pick: Richmond 73, Massachusetts 68
Massachusetts +12 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Saint Joseph’s (5-9) at Rhode Island (12-2)
Line: Rhode Island by 15.
Look at Rhode Island’s margin of victory since Thanksgiving: 5, 4, 1, 5, 11, 3, 9, 4, 10.
The oddsmaker has made this number too high because of the disaprity in the teams’ records.
College Basketball Pick: Rhode Island 78, Saint Joseph’s 70
Saint Joseph’s +15 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Penn State (8-7) at Illinois (11-5)
Line: Illinois by 9.
I like Penn State here; Illinois is a sloth Big Ten team that has trouble scoring and consequently doesn’t blow anyone out. Penn State played Minnesota close on the road recently, and I feel as though they’ll stick with Illinois.
College Basketball Pick: Illinois 64, Penn State 60
Penn State +9 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Tennessee State (4-13) at Iowa (5-11)
Line: Iowa by 12.5.
Iowa stinks and doesn’t deserve to be favored by 12.5. Tennessee State isn’t very good either, but it doesn’t get blown out often.
College Basketball Pick: Iowa 63, Tennessee State 56
Tennessee State +12.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Canisius (8-8) at Siena (12-4)
Line: Siena by 15.5.
Siena is a great team out of the MAAC, but this line is way too inflated when you consider that they were just -8 over 10-6 Niagara. Canisius isn’t terrible; in fact, they haven’t lost by this margin since around Thanksgiving.
College Basketball Pick: Siena 77, Canisius 67
Canisius +15.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Eastern Washington (5-11) at Montana State (9-6)
Line: Montana State by 12.
You know what sucks? When you take a 13-point underdog (Fordham), and they have a 4-point lead in the second half, and they blow the cover. Oh, and then the Knicks at +6 have a 14-point lead and blow that cover. And the Bengals lose because of their drunk kicker and choking quarterback. Argh.
Montana State hasn’t blown out too many teams this year, and I think they’re favored by too much here.
College Basketball Pick: Montana State 70, Eastern Washington 68
Eastern Washington +12 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Manhattan (7-8) at Fairfield (11-4)
Line: Fairfield by 10.
Another high spread; Fairfield doesn’t blow teams out, and Manhattan usually doesn’t lose by much.
College Basketball Pick: Fairfield 69, Manhattan 66
Manhattan +10 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Kansas (14-0) at Tennessee (11-2)
Line: Kansas by 4.5.
This is a big game for Tennessee. I expect them to establish an early lead. However, Kansas is the best team in the nation, and ultimately I think they will win this game.
College Basketball Pick: Kansas 88, Tennessee 79
Kansas -4.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Fordham (2-11) at Saint Joseph’s (4-9)
Line: Saint Joseph’s by 13.
Saint Joseph’s hasn’t won a game by more than 11 points all year, and now they’re favored by 13? Fordham just nearly beat UMass, so they’re not as terrible as their record would indicate.
College Basketball Pick: Saint Joseph’s 70, Fordham 64
Fordham +13 (3 Units) — Push; $0
New Orleans (6-10) at North Texas (9-6)
Line: North Texas by 13.
I went with New Orleans on Thursday, and I’m coming back with them again. They play close games. North Texas, meanwhile, hasn’t beaten a team by more than 10 points since Dec. 13.
College Basketball Pick: North Texas 71, New Orleans 65
New Orleans +13 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Drake (5-11) at Southern Illinois (9-4)
Line: Southern Illinois by 12.5.
Most of Southern Illinois’ victories have been by single digits, while Drake just battled Creighton down to the wire as 13-point underdogs.
College Basketball Pick: Southern Illinois 73, Drake 66
Drake +12.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Washington State (11-3) at Arizona (7-7)
Line: Arizona by 3.
My first game in, and I already had a tough beat. Penn State, laying two, was up 31-16 at the half and somehow blew that gigantic lead. At least New Orleans covered.
These records might make you believe that the inferior team is laying points. Well, that’s not true. Washington State beat up on numerous crappy teams early in the year – mostly at home. The Cougars are just 1-2 on the road this season, and that sole victory came against perennial powerhouse Alaska-Anchorage.
Washington State doesn’t have a road win since Nov. 25, so I like the underrated Wildcats, who are 5-2 as hosts.
College Basketball Pick: Arizona 74, Washington State 64
Arizona -3 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Cal Davis (6-8) at UC-Santa Barbara (6-6)
Line: UC-Santa Barbara by 9.5.
Too many points. UC-Santa Barbara has just three wins since Thanksgiving, and they’ve been by 4, 12 and 5 points. Cal Davis has won two straight and could easily make that three here.
College Basketball Pick: UC-Santa Barbara 72, Cal Davis 68
Cal Davis +9.5 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Michigan (7-6) at Penn State (8-6)
Line: Penn State by 2.
College hoops is back! I’ve spent the past two months monitoring these teams, so hopefully I’ve gathered enough good data to enjoy a seventh-consecutive winning season in this sport.
Traveling during the week is never easy, especially in the Big Ten. Michigan doesn’t have a road victory yet this year, so I like Penn State to cover this number.
College Basketball Pick: Penn State 69, Michigan 56
Penn State -2 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
New Orleans (6-9) at Denver (10-5)
Line: Denver by 14.5.
Too many points. Denver’s record is inflated because it won big early; however, since Thanksgiving, the Pioneers have just one victory of more than nine points.
College Basketball Pick: Denver 68, New Orleans 62
New Orleans +14.5 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
NFL Picks - Dec. 13
2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11
NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9
2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29
Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4
Season:
2013-14: 2013-14 -
2012-13: 2012-13 -
2011-12: 2011-12 -
2010-11: 2010-11 -
2009-10: 2009-10 -
2008-09: 2008-09 -
2007-2008: December - January - February - March -
2006-2007: November - December - January - February - March - April -
2003-2004 Season: 138-107-6 (56.3%)
2004-2005 Season: 168-148-6 (53.2%)
2005-2006 Season: 188-173-7 (52.1%)
2006-2007 Season: 273-255-8 (51.7%), +$945
2007-2008 Season: 71-64-5 (52.6%), +$1,420
2008-2009 Season: 66-53-2 (55.5%), +$1,680
Career Against The Spread: 906-780-32 (53.7%), +$4,045
2013-14: 2013-14 -
2012-13: 2012-13 -
2011-12: 2011-12 -
2010-11: 2010-11 -
2009-10: 2009-10 -
2008-09: 2008-09 -
2007-2008: December - January - February - March -
2006-2007: November - December - January - February - March - April -
2003-2004 Season: 138-107-6 (56.3%)
2004-2005 Season: 168-148-6 (53.2%)
2005-2006 Season: 188-173-7 (52.1%)
2006-2007 Season: 273-255-8 (51.7%), +$945
2007-2008 Season: 71-64-5 (52.6%), +$1,420
2008-2009 Season: 66-53-2 (55.5%), +$1,680
Career Against The Spread: 906-780-32 (53.7%), +$4,045
