The Matchup. Edge: Bears.

Video of the Week: Here’s a Pitch Meeting video. I’m a huge fan of the animated Super Mario Bros. movie – and my 2-year-old son is as well – so I was excited to see that they did a pitch video for it:

Despite my love for the movie, those were all fair criticisms. ‘Member blue shell and rainbow road? I ‘member blue shell and rainbow road.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Caleb Williams has had his inconsistencies through a season and a half, but he was stellar against the Bengals. Then again, so is everyone else, especially if Trey Hendrickson is sidelined. If Williams could battle the Hendrickson-less Bengals each week, he’d be a first-ballot Hall of Famer.

Then again, it’s not like the Giants are very good defensively either. They have a strong pass rush, but that’s about it on this side of the ball. They had some talented defensive backs, but injuries have ruined their secondary. Williams could get into trouble against the New York edge rushers if he holds on to the ball forever, but at least his receivers should get open.

Williams may not have to do much, however, if he can just feed the ball to his running backs. Whether it’s D’Andre Swift or Kyle Monangai, the Bears will be able to run the ball easily against the Giants, who have the second-worst rush defense in the NFL. Only the Bengals are worse, and we just saw what Monangai did in that matchup.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Giants gave their fans some excitement for some time, but that ended a couple of weeks ago when Cam Skattebo was knocked out with a gruesome ankle injury. The team looked dejected and has played poorly since that injury. Running back is a replaceable position, but with nothing at receiver, the Giants were counting on Skattebo for so much. With Skattebo gone, Jaxson Dart is asked to do everything on his own, which is just too tall of a task.

The good news for Dart is that he’ll be battling the worst pressure rate in the NFL. No team gets to the quarterback less frequently than the Bears. Chicago also has injury issues at cornerback, with multiple players at the position sidelined. If the Giants still had a healthy Malik Nabers, they’d be able to take advantage of that liability. Darius Slayton and Wan’Dale Robinson won’t be able to do that.

The one area in which the Bears are semi-decent defensively is run support. They’re actually ninth versus the rush, so don’t count on Tyrone Tracy or Devin Singletary producing anything. It’ll all be on Dart, which is why having either Nabers or Skattebo would be so crucial.

RECAP: I don’t really see a good betting opportunity in this game. Both offenses have edges against the opposing defense, though I’d say Chicago’s edge – the rushing attack – is better than what the Giants have because New York is shorthanded. However, that’s where the spread is a factor. The Bears are favored by more than a field goal, which seems correct. The line is -3.5, and I projected it to be -4.5, so that difference is negligible.

I’m going to side with the Bears because of their superior edge. Plus, the fact that they’re favored by 3.5 points and not three means that the sportsbooks aren’t afraid of the sharps coming in on the Giants +3, so that’s a bullish indicator on Chicago.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I wrote above that I don’t see a good betting opportunity, but I’m not sure why I said that because the Bears seem like a very good play to me. They should be able to run all over the Giants, while New York’s lack of weapons will prevent it from exposing the Bears’ weakness, which is the pass defense. I’m planning on betting three or so units on the Bears.

SATURDAY NOTES: A couple of reasons why I won’t be betting this game. First, there might be snow in this contest. This will hurt the Bears more than the Giants because they’re the only team with the viable passing attack in this matchup. Second, the Bears won’t have their best defensive player, T.J. Edwards. If you want to know how impactful Edwards is, the last time he missed a game, Ashton Jeanty ran for nearly 200 yards against Chicago. The Bears have stuffed the run ever since Edwards returned after that, but his absence will have a huge impact.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Giants will have Jevon Holland back in the lineup, while the Bears won’t have T.J. Edwards. The sharps haven’t touched this game. The best line is -4.5 -106 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bears -4.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bears -3.

Computer Model: Bears -4.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Chicago: 55% (98,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bears.

Opening Line: Bears -3.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Slight chance of snow, 37 degrees. Mild/heavy wind, 15 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: Bears.

Video of the Week: Here’s a Pitch Meeting video. I’m a huge fan of the animated Super Mario Bros. movie – and my 2-year-old son is as well – so I was excited to see that they did a pitch video for it:

Despite my love for the movie, those were all fair criticisms. ‘Member blue shell and rainbow road? I ‘member blue shell and rainbow road.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Caleb Williams has had his inconsistencies through a season and a half, but he was stellar against the Bengals. Then again, so is everyone else, especially if Trey Hendrickson is sidelined. If Williams could battle the Hendrickson-less Bengals each week, he’d be a first-ballot Hall of Famer.

Then again, it’s not like the Giants are very good defensively either. They have a strong pass rush, but that’s about it on this side of the ball. They had some talented defensive backs, but injuries have ruined their secondary. Williams could get into trouble against the New York edge rushers if he holds on to the ball forever, but at least his receivers should get open.

Williams may not have to do much, however, if he can just feed the ball to his running backs. Whether it’s D’Andre Swift or Kyle Monangai, the Bears will be able to run the ball easily against the Giants, who have the second-worst rush defense in the NFL. Only the Bengals are worse, and we just saw what Monangai did in that matchup.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Giants gave their fans some excitement for some time, but that ended a couple of weeks ago when Cam Skattebo was knocked out with a gruesome ankle injury. The team looked dejected and has played poorly since that injury. Running back is a replaceable position, but with nothing at receiver, the Giants were counting on Skattebo for so much. With Skattebo gone, Jaxson Dart is asked to do everything on his own, which is just too tall of a task.

The good news for Dart is that he’ll be battling the worst pressure rate in the NFL. No team gets to the quarterback less frequently than the Bears. Chicago also has injury issues at cornerback, with multiple players at the position sidelined. If the Giants still had a healthy Malik Nabers, they’d be able to take advantage of that liability. Darius Slayton and Wan’Dale Robinson won’t be able to do that.

The one area in which the Bears are semi-decent defensively is run support. They’re actually ninth versus the rush, so don’t count on Tyrone Tracy or Devin Singletary producing anything. It’ll all be on Dart, which is why having either Nabers or Skattebo would be so crucial.

RECAP: I don’t really see a good betting opportunity in this game. Both offenses have edges against the opposing defense, though I’d say Chicago’s edge – the rushing attack – is better than what the Giants have because New York is shorthanded. However, that’s where the spread is a factor. The Bears are favored by more than a field goal, which seems correct. The line is -3.5, and I projected it to be -4.5, so that difference is negligible.

I’m going to side with the Bears because of their superior edge. Plus, the fact that they’re favored by 3.5 points and not three means that the sportsbooks aren’t afraid of the sharps coming in on the Giants +3, so that’s a bullish indicator on Chicago.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I wrote above that I don’t see a good betting opportunity, but I’m not sure why I said that because the Bears seem like a very good play to me. They should be able to run all over the Giants, while New York’s lack of weapons will prevent it from exposing the Bears’ weakness, which is the pass defense. I’m planning on betting three or so units on the Bears.

SATURDAY NOTES: A couple of reasons why I won’t be betting this game. First, there might be snow in this contest. This will hurt the Bears more than the Giants because they’re the only team with the viable passing attack in this matchup. Second, the Bears won’t have their best defensive player, T.J. Edwards. If you want to know how impactful Edwards is, the last time he missed a game, Ashton Jeanty ran for nearly 200 yards against Chicago. The Bears have stuffed the run ever since Edwards returned after that, but his absence will have a huge impact.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Giants will have Jevon Holland back in the lineup, while the Bears won’t have T.J. Edwards. The sharps haven’t touched this game. The best line is -4.5 -106 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bears -4.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bears -3.

Computer Model: Bears -4.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Chicago: 55% (98,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bears.

Opening Line: Bears -3.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Slight chance of snow, 37 degrees. Mild/heavy wind, 15 mph.