The Matchup. Edge: Texans.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Futures page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The Jaguars made a significant trade ahead of the deadline, acquiring Jakobi Meyers from the Raiders. Meyers will be able to help Jacksonville later in the year, but it doesn’t seem likely that he’ll be fully integrated into the playbook so soon. Besides, Meyers will be matched up against Houston’s elite pass defense.

A big part of Houston’s success against aerial attacks is their pass rush. The Texans average more than 20 pressures per game, which is above the league average. They’ll be able to hound Trevor Lawrence, who doesn’t have quality blocking in front of him. Jacksonville’s offensive line has surrendered the eighth-most pressures this year, so Lawrence will be flustered. His struggles will continue.

The Texans are worse against the run than the pass, but they’re not that bad at stopping rushing attacks. They’re a league-average 16th in that regard, so it doesn’t seem as though Travis Etienne will have the same, dominant performance he enjoyed versus the Raiders in the second half and overtime last week.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Texans likely won’t have strong play from their quarterback either, unless C.J. Stroud makes a surprisingly quick recovery from his concussion. With Stroud likely out, it’ll be Davis Mills again.

Mills actually handled himself well in the first half of last week’s game against Denver. He fell apart in the second half, but was battling one of the top defenses in the NFL. Jacksonville’s defense isn’t nearly as good. The Jaguars are 21st in defensive EPA. They’re in the middle of the pack when it comes to generate pressure, so that has to be a relief for Mills, given the status of his offensive line. With only Josh Hines-Allen to worry about, Mills will be able to connect often with Nico Collins.

The Jaguars are better against the run than the pass, ranking 13th in that regard. As a result, I wouldn’t expect much from Nick Chubb, though that would be the case regardless of matchup. It’s obvious that the Texans need to give Woody Marks more of a workload, but they somehow haven’t come to realize that yet.

RECAP: Even if Mills is named the starter for this game, I’ll be on the Texans. Backing Mills may not seem great, but reserve quarterbacks are a solid play against mediocre or worse defenses. Jacksonville is 21st in defense and average at generating pressure, so Mills will be a functional quarterback this week.

The quarterback you need to worry about in this game is actually Lawrence. The former No. 1 overall pick has really struggled this year, and he may be without his top two receivers. Meyers will be on the team, but he won’t know the playbook yet, so there might be some miscommunications. Furthermore, Jacksonville’s offensive line has resembled a turnstile this year with 110 pressures allowed. The unit won’t stand a chance against Houston’s ferocious front.

Though the records say otherwise, the Texans seem like the better team than the Jaguars. I’ll be backing them for a few units.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: C.J. Stroud has been declared out. The Texans are now home underdogs. I’m still confident in them, despite the news, which is something we already anticipated.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Jaguars are going to be down their top two receivers, but they’ll have Jakobi Meyers coming in just in time to help at the position. They’ll be without Ezra Cleveland as well, which will hurt their already-shoddy pass protection. And speaking of shoddy protection, the Texans won’t have two starting offensive linemen: their top pass protector, Tytus Howard, and their best run blocker, Ed Ingram. It’s safe to say that this is not a bullish outlook for Davis Mills. Given these injury developments, I’m not going to bet on the Texans.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Perhaps I shouldn’t have taken my units off the Texans because the sharps have been betting them on Sunday morning. I’m going to put back one of the three units I removed. The best line is -1 -101 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Texans -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Texans -3.

Computer Model: Texans -2.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Texans.

Slight lean on the Jaguars.

Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 60% (81,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Texans.

History: Texans have won 23 of the last 30 meetings.

Opening Line: Texans -2.5.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Texans.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Futures page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The Jaguars made a significant trade ahead of the deadline, acquiring Jakobi Meyers from the Raiders. Meyers will be able to help Jacksonville later in the year, but it doesn’t seem likely that he’ll be fully integrated into the playbook so soon. Besides, Meyers will be matched up against Houston’s elite pass defense.

A big part of Houston’s success against aerial attacks is their pass rush. The Texans average more than 20 pressures per game, which is above the league average. They’ll be able to hound Trevor Lawrence, who doesn’t have quality blocking in front of him. Jacksonville’s offensive line has surrendered the eighth-most pressures this year, so Lawrence will be flustered. His struggles will continue.

The Texans are worse against the run than the pass, but they’re not that bad at stopping rushing attacks. They’re a league-average 16th in that regard, so it doesn’t seem as though Travis Etienne will have the same, dominant performance he enjoyed versus the Raiders in the second half and overtime last week.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Texans likely won’t have strong play from their quarterback either, unless C.J. Stroud makes a surprisingly quick recovery from his concussion. With Stroud likely out, it’ll be Davis Mills again.

Mills actually handled himself well in the first half of last week’s game against Denver. He fell apart in the second half, but was battling one of the top defenses in the NFL. Jacksonville’s defense isn’t nearly as good. The Jaguars are 21st in defensive EPA. They’re in the middle of the pack when it comes to generate pressure, so that has to be a relief for Mills, given the status of his offensive line. With only Josh Hines-Allen to worry about, Mills will be able to connect often with Nico Collins.

The Jaguars are better against the run than the pass, ranking 13th in that regard. As a result, I wouldn’t expect much from Nick Chubb, though that would be the case regardless of matchup. It’s obvious that the Texans need to give Woody Marks more of a workload, but they somehow haven’t come to realize that yet.

RECAP: Even if Mills is named the starter for this game, I’ll be on the Texans. Backing Mills may not seem great, but reserve quarterbacks are a solid play against mediocre or worse defenses. Jacksonville is 21st in defense and average at generating pressure, so Mills will be a functional quarterback this week.

The quarterback you need to worry about in this game is actually Lawrence. The former No. 1 overall pick has really struggled this year, and he may be without his top two receivers. Meyers will be on the team, but he won’t know the playbook yet, so there might be some miscommunications. Furthermore, Jacksonville’s offensive line has resembled a turnstile this year with 110 pressures allowed. The unit won’t stand a chance against Houston’s ferocious front.

Though the records say otherwise, the Texans seem like the better team than the Jaguars. I’ll be backing them for a few units.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: C.J. Stroud has been declared out. The Texans are now home underdogs. I’m still confident in them, despite the news, which is something we already anticipated.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Jaguars are going to be down their top two receivers, but they’ll have Jakobi Meyers coming in just in time to help at the position. They’ll be without Ezra Cleveland as well, which will hurt their already-shoddy pass protection. And speaking of shoddy protection, the Texans won’t have two starting offensive linemen: their top pass protector, Tytus Howard, and their best run blocker, Ed Ingram. It’s safe to say that this is not a bullish outlook for Davis Mills. Given these injury developments, I’m not going to bet on the Texans.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Perhaps I shouldn’t have taken my units off the Texans because the sharps have been betting them on Sunday morning. I’m going to put back one of the three units I removed. The best line is -1 -101 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Texans -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Texans -3.

Computer Model: Texans -2.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Texans.

Slight lean on the Jaguars.

Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 60% (81,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Texans.

History: Texans have won 23 of the last 30 meetings.

Opening Line: Texans -2.5.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Dome.